AQs preflop decision that i hate

[gabe]

villian hasnt gotten out of control..his chips came from set taking down overpair and a flush SB v BB. is this easy call or easy fold??

PokerStars Game #2669000691: Tournament #13064632, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2005/09/26 - 22:04:11 (ET)
Table '13064632 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: BillB187 (1660 in chips)
Seat 4: gp333 (3385 in chips)
Seat 5: Opobi43 (3590 in chips)
Seat 7: dtaylor55 (125 in chips)
Seat 9: hisnibs2000 (4740 in chips)
BillB187: posts the ante 25
gp333: posts the ante 25
Opobi43: posts the ante 25
dtaylor55: posts the ante 25
hisnibs2000: posts the ante 25
BillB187: posts small blind 100
gp333: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gp333 [Ad Qd]
Opobi43: folds
dtaylor55: folds
hisnibs2000: raises 4515 to 4715 and is all-in
BillB187: folds
gp333: ??????????????????? WTF

[Staple Gun]

is this easy call or easy fold??

Neither

My read would be something between 55 and 99 that he wanted to steal but figured he would just push to eliminate get played back at. I see a lot of players do this with low and middle pockets.

Therefore I think I would fold not wanting to flip.

[Zidane18]

i wud fold. no need to get involved imo. too risky and u got enough chips to not have to make a stand with ace queen, also blinds arent big enough to be worth stealing with a non premier hand.

i would put him on pocket 8's maybe even pocket 4's and the coin flip isnt worth it

add to this that he may have ak or aces or kings and it seems a regulation fold with the tourny situation

[boost]

22-AA are all possible and also AK AQ AJ and AT as you can see most of the possible hands are beating you, gotta fold

[CFANG]

Unless the guy has been regularily shoving in with bad A's preflop a call seems like a terrible idea. just keep hammering on billyB's blinds . If you stack was alot smaller then you'd have to go for it but you have lots of chips so no need to get rediculous

[vqc]

i think its an easy fold.

[WildBobAA]

Smells like a weak A or a mid pair to me. Tough one. If you feel like gamblin' call. You're probably taking a coinflip for the massive chip lead and he might have AJ or worse.

[Darby]

I dont know how you people feel about him, but one time on celebrity poker showdown, I hard phil gordon say, "calling off all of your chips is rarely a good play."

I think this hand shows that, because even though AQ is a good hand, a call here just doesnt seem necessary and im pretty sure i fold this almost every time, unless I have a read otherwise.

[WildBobAA]

22-AA are all possible and also AK AQ AJ and AT as you can see most of the possible hands are beating you, gotta fold

Uhmm I don't think AA-QQ are possible since he's a decent player. At this stage in the tournament he'd want action with these hands and wouldn't raise so much. JJ is a real possibility since I've seen a lot of people just make an oversized push with this hand because they are terrified of playing it after the flop. Any pair lower than JJ is very possible. AK....maybe but if I was the other guy, I'd want action with it since I'd get action from weaker aces for sure.

You fail to mention that A9-A2 are also possible and any 2 face cards are also very possible. The only had he could have that you're in terrible shape against is AK. He wouldn't make that bet with AA KK or QQ.

So I think the "correct" play is to fold but like I said, if you feel like gambling it up to try for a monster chip lead and a stranglehold on the touranment, have at it.

[eFoldem]

Thats how I got knocked out of a $33 sng tournament...

I had 2,800 stack out of 8,000 possible...

2nd chip lead had about 2500 and whent all in.... I had AQ and called....

Of course he had AK and he drew a King.. but either way only way I could of won was to draw a Q.

If you ask me its a bad call with AQ.

[AvatarKava]

Your stack is fairly healthy and we assume you're one of the better players at the table. Unless you have reason to think otherwise, I concur with just about everyone else here: easy fold.

[JeffreyGB]

Fold without a read telling you to do otherwise.

[a500lbgorilla]

It's simply too expensive to call.

-'rilla

[CrunchyNuts]

Don't think it matters if you have a read or not...I think calling here if you think he'd push with any two is still -$EV. Just got way too much to lose and AQs doesn't give you a huge change to win.

[LeFou]

I'm with WildBob -- even though you can't assume you're beat, it's probably a laydown.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you're ahead more times than not
-villain has a big stack and could well be stealing
-many will play a crap A or suited broadways like this.

It's the size of the bet, and the presence of two very short stacks in a field of 5, that make it a fold.

i.e. i think fold is -EV for this hand but +EV for your longterm SNG bottom line.

[dalecooper]

He probably has a weaker ace or a low to middle pocket pair. You are probably not dominated; there's a so-so chance you have him dominated, and a strong chance it would be a coinflip. But you're very healthy and close to the money. I'd probably let it go. Now if he starts doing this regularly, at some point you're gonna have to call him. But on this hand, without a read, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and not go flippin' coins for my whole stack.

[TLR]

villian hasnt gotten out of control..his chips came from set taking down overpair and a flush SB v BB

Since he is not a maniac, fold, no need to risk it all here

[gabe]

i did fold. i thought about it for a bit so right when i finally did fold he said 'good fold, KK'. which made me think he must have had a bad hand.

[dalecooper]

He almost certainly didn't have KK. I'm guessing it was a smaller pair.

[WildBobAA]

No way he has KK there. You shoulda said "I laid down QQ"

[Xanadu]

I don't understand this 'if he's a good player he'd never go all-in here with AA-QQ' thinking. A good player would not overbet the pot like this with a decent chip lead with a marginal hand. If he's playing to steal, he's risking 3400 chips to gain 425. Why risk 3400 when 6-800 will do the job? I'd make that play with premium hands, just because all-ins get called so much. What are the stakes, that makes a big difference.

[WildBobAA]

A good player would not overbet the pot like this with a decent chip lead with a marginal hand.

You're right but a good player would also not overbet the pot with a hand he wants action with such as those big pairs. That's why he doesn't have something bad or great. Probably a mid pair or an Ace.

[dalecooper]

The most common reason for this type of bet is that the player is mediocre (not especially good or bad) and has a hand that he doesn't want to have to make decisions about post-flop. Ergo, a small or middle pocket pair. Short-handed this also often means something like AT/A9. By pushing with it, the player reduces his decision-making to none, and exerts maximum pressure on the shorter stacks who may not want to risk their tournament life on a marginal call... which as we saw here, is exactly why our hero laid down AQ suited, a pretty good hand considering the number of players left.

The other reason this is most often a small or middle pair is that the mentality is that if you get a call, it's often going to be from AK/AQ, and you don't mind flipping a coin to put out a shorter stack. A hand that actually has you dominated (say 99 when you have 88 or 77) may fold, but a hand like AK is almost certainly calling... well you'd rather be called by AK, obviously.

[Fnord]

Has he opened any pots with good cards for less than a push?

I would insta-call putting him on Ax/KQ-KJ/22-99/trash.

My call range here:
AA-TT/AK-AQ

[Trikflow77]

Has he opened any pots with good cards for less than a push?

I would insta-call putting him on Ax/KQ-KJ/22-99/trash.

My call range here:
AA-TT/AK-AQ

fnord with the insta call

[Fnord]

fnord with the insta call

o It's a gambling game
o I have a deep bankroll for the games I play in
o Almost every player plays bizare hands in strange ways

Hence, if I don't call with the lesser hand every now and then I'm giving up too much value. Also consider that a call like this might make someone less inclined to go for the steal later, throw in a comment like "Would you have called with any Ace or King too?" for added effect. When you phrase it like that it's taken at face value.

[Trikflow77]

it was a reference to you saying insta call in two consecutive posts by gabe. Would i call here? Maybe, depends on the table and player among other factors. If i know i can run atable over, im not calling here and risking going broke. If thats not the case, i call thinking its a flip or i have him dominated.

[baudib]

Does anyone ever tell the truth after the fold?

I was in the SB yesterday when it folded to me with AKo. I pushed all-in and the BB said, "Hmmmm, Big Slick." We were almost dead even in chips he would have been left with 80 chips out of 3,500 if he lost.

He thought long and hard and put it down. I said, "Coinflip, QQ."

[gabe]

i dont think he had been opening many pots. i think the orbit before he had raised 3bb and taken down the blinds. i hadn't pulled any resteals on him either and i don't remember playing with him before (maybe he had a note on me that read i defended my blind?).

like trifklow said, i think i can run over the table and win without gambling here, but if i did take it and won, 1st would be almost guaranteed.

hmmm

[dalecooper]

One question that I don't believe has been asked yet. What is the payout structure? If you fold this hand you're almost guaranteed to move to the top four soon because dtaylor has so few chips.

[gabe]

247
148
99

[Staple Gun]

I hard phil gordon say, "calling off all of your chips is rarely a good play."

Please dont try to learn how to play poker from the WPT. Or any other TV poker.

[Trikflow77]

I hard phil gordon say, "calling off all of your chips is rarely a good play."

Please dont try to learn how to play poker from the WPT. Or any other TV poker.

What are yyou talking about, tv poker is the single best resource for learning to play the game, sans actually playing.

[dalecooper]

So just the top 3 get paid. Your move from 5th to 4th is basically assured if you fold here. Moving into the money from there is not guaranteed, but it's likely, unless Bill is a strong player - the rest of you have him outchipped 2 to 1. On the other hand, a call puts you in good shape if you win the hand - although it doesn't eliminate or even completely cripple your opponent, or totally assure a 1st place finish.

I dunno. I still lean toward letting this one go. I'd like to move one place closer to the money when it's obviously happening very soon, and from there you and the other big dogs can lean on BillB. My read on his range of hands is that you'd be at worst a coinflip if you called, but there's a lot of value in surviving here. If this was BillB pushing, I'd say insta-call.

[dalecooper]

What are yyou talking about, tv poker is the single best resource for learning to play the game, sans actually playing.

It has its benefits, but it also gives players a very skewed idea of proper strategy. TV coverage is biased so heavily toward action hands and crazy plays that viewers would think bluffing like mad and going all in with any pocket pair/AK/AQ is all it takes to be a poker pro.

[WildBobAA]

What are yyou talking about, tv poker is the single best resource for learning to play the game, sans actually playing.

There are many things on TV poker that would fail horribly online in a low buyin SnG.