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middle pair on the bubble - your move

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  1. #1

    Default middle pair on the bubble - your move

    Seat 2: SleepySnoozy (1990 in chips)
    Seat 4: MisterFreeze (4845 in chips)
    Seat 5: BIG PILL (4260 in chips)
    Seat 8: pidgey2401 (225 in chips)
    Seat 9: Forty2u (2180 in chips)
    MisterFreeze: posts small blind 100
    BIG PILL: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Forty2u [8d 8c]
    pidgey2401: folds
    Forty2u: raises 400 to 600
    SleepySnoozy: folds
    MisterFreeze: folds
    BIG PILL: raises 1600 to 2200
    Forty2u: ?

    BIG PILL is agressive
  2. #2
    if this really is the bubble it's an easy fold. pidgey's going out next time heshe is in a hand (prolly next hand in BB)

    But I count five people here ... if you fold you've got <8BB left. This is a good chance to double, bigstack may just be telling you to stuff yr steal. Pairs >T would almost definitely flat call this, and fire at the flop.

    So you're either a tiny favorite (vs. 2 broadways), an okay favorite (A7, A6?), a huge favorite (smaller pp), or a big dog (99 & TT -- having ruled out big pps). I think there are enough inferior hands, and a big enough advantage to doubling here, that I'd go on in.
  3. #3
    My first instinct is push. I don't think any hands that dominate you would let you off the hand so easily by reraising so strong. It's probably two overs or a weak ace. With such a short short stack at the table, the chip leader is taking advantage of the fact that you don't want to bust out here. Do the top 4 pay here? If so, you might wait until the shorty busts, but if you're going for first place I don't think you're gonna find a much better chance than this one.
  4. #4
    It is 5 people, which is technically not the bubble, but pidgey2401 has 225 which is about the BB. So I considered it as good as bubble for the sake of decision making.

    I folded.

    I can't completly rule out higher PP here, they may push here thinking there is a better chance I will commit all my chips preflop then postflop.

    I think this move may have been done by any PP by him, or with any 2 broadway, which pretty much gives me a coinflip chance, I decided not to take it

    Ended up finishing 3rd
  5. #5
    Aggressive perhaps, but have you noticied him defending his blinds against steals? Have you done this before?

    This is a problem I have been having personally.

    If he is aggressive he could be doing this with anything, although I am expecting him to be flipping over ax/kx....most likely a flip...he is comfortable risking half of his stack, are you comfortable risking your tournament life?

    If you are comfortable risking your tournament life with this hand then I would suggest just going AI to begin with...if you were going to call an AI anyways. That way he is more likely to fold, as you are putting pressure on him. Raising like that looks like a steal which will likely bring action from an agg...so unless you are trapping just push it to begin with.


    I fall victim to this tangle more often than I would like, I can harm the big stack with my stack...but I am truly just trying to attack the shorties.

    Assuming I went with a 600 raise instead of a push, I am personally folding here. You have a 225 stack out there..and another after this hand that will be slightly larger than you. If you want to push your likely small edge go ahead, but in this instance I would only be raising 600 if i didn't want to be called/raised.
    20K06 - 20k profit by end of 2006
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by PokerPatNEU
    I don't think any hands that dominate you would let you off the hand so easily by reraising so strong.
    I'd make that bet against an opening raise with TT-QQ, trying to push out his steal attempt with a weak ace or King. Wouldn't you? I just wouldn't rule out being dominated.

    I put him on two strong overs or any PP. Thinking he would do this with Ax seems farily read dependant, but at a low level I'm not sure I'd give my opponents that much credit for pulling a move like this. It's a close call, but I'd do the safer thing and fold knowing that I'm pushing into him with any solid hand I get in the future.
  7. #7
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    nothing wrong with folding here.
  8. #8
    i fold this one all the time.
  9. #9
    I don't really like raising an aggresive BB in this spot unless I want to call if he pushes. He knows opp is about to go out and that you don't want to play a big pot here. What was the plan if he called and then lead out? 88 isn't an overpair very often.

    at 100/200 I don't much care whether I have 1500 or 2k chips, often I'll limp here, hoping for set, overpair or an all or nothing flop - like QQ6 and play from there.
  10. #10
    I don't like the 3xBB raise unless you are calling this re-raise (GAMbez00l!)

    It's close though. With M = 7, 10xBB (look I'm bilingual) you have 1 non-all-in-steal before you are push-or-fold.

    You are on the button too... your raise smells weak here, plus a fishy-sized re-raise (equal to YOUR stack... although an all-in is easier on the slider).

    I call.
  11. #11
    What was the plan if he called and then lead out? 88 isn't an overpair very often.
    Assuming he pushes depends on the flop
    8 on the flop I call
    all low cards I call
    2 unders and 1 over I would probably call
    2 or 3 overs I fold
  12. #12
    i dont kno if this was covered, but has anyone considered open pushing here?
  13. #13
    I fold this most the time.

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