QQ with a paired board

[gabe]

$55 on stars, villian is aggro. he has a tendency to bet small with good hands, so this seemed out of place. but is that enough to put him on a busted flush draw or a smaller PP??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

(t1930)
UTG+1 (t1520)
MP1 (t950)
MP2 (t1640)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1580)
Button (t1450)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is CO with QQ, .
UTG+1 limps, CO (Hero) raises to 120, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: (t275) 5, 3, K (9 players)
UTG+1 bets t240, CO calls t240.

Turn: (t765) K (9 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

River: (t765) 8 (9 players)
UTG+1 bets t1160 (All-In) CO ???????????

[a500lbgorilla]

you're already playing 55s on stars?

Didnt you just drop to like 500 bucks?

-'rilla

[Trikflow77]

Well you botched this hand on the turn, now its tough to tell whether its a flush draw bluff or 3 kings. Bet the turn it makes the river much easier.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, I'd fold becuase I sometimes play AK exactly like that.

EDIT Considering preflop, this hand is tough.

-'rilla

[Trikflow77]

oh and i fold here with the the amount of chips you have remaining, it is tough decision though

[gabe]

you're already playing 55s on stars?

Didnt you just drop to like 500 bucks?

-'rilla

ive had some small mtt cashes (read the winner's circle!), so i'm back up to where i could be playing these.


ps. i didnt play this hand

[kingnat]

Well you botched this hand on the turn, now its tough to tell whether its a flush draw bluff or 3 kings. Bet the turn it makes the river much easier.

To me, I think the question becomes, why the call on the flop?

Shouldn't that be a re-raise or fold decision?.. since it is called, then there has a to be bet after the check on the turn...

It shouldn't have come down to the river on this, imo... but as is... I'd fold.. since I don't have the info I want.

[Trikflow77]

Well you botched this hand on the turn, now its tough to tell whether its a flush draw bluff or 3 kings. Bet the turn it makes the river much easier.

To me, I think the question becomes, why the call on the flop?

Shouldn't that be a re-raise or fold decision?.. since it is called, then there has a to be bet after the check on the turn...

It shouldn't have come down to the river on this, imo... but as is... I'd fold.. since I don't have the info I want.

your right...i thought he bet into that dude on the flop. With that in mind I for sure fold this hand. He has a king and was worried about his kicker i think. IF you float call the flop you have to bet this turn IMO.

[Fnord]

Shouldn't that be a re-raise or fold decision?.. since it is called, then there has a to be bet after the check on the turn...

Consider that there is a strong chance this player is bluffing by making a strong bet into the PFR. Raising the flop still puts us in a tough spot if we are called and don't spike a Q.

Given reads, I think the hand is ok. There is a case for betting 400 on the turn here too if you want to avoid putting the farm on this hand. I insta-call the river.

[gabe]

I insta-call the river.

i agree, i really think he turns over AsXs most of the time here.

[Trikflow77]

I insta-call the river.

i agree, i really think he turns over AsXs most of the time here.

why not bet the turn, it keeps you from having to make these river calls.

[gabe]

yea i like betting turn too, i didnt play the hand

[Staple Gun]

Fold to your brethren with KQ.

[Fnord]

why not bet the turn, it keeps you from having to make these river calls.

...because if you're confident in your game/bankroll/reads having players bluff money at you is good. Most of the least sophisticated winning players (many who earn a hell of a lot more than me), will say stuff like "I'm good at picking off bluffs." Something to ponder...

Fold to your brethren with KQ.

You're way behind on donk-psychology, KQo would have LRR-pushed pre-flop!

[drmcboy]

I have to call there... If he made this play with a K, I tip my hat.

[daluchy]

This is how I would play a king in the hole, except value betting the river. If you got 3 kings, why would you make the river bet a hard one to call?

That's why it looks like a bluff to me. I call.

Looks to me like a Soupie-esque flopped monster play.

I would put him on AK/KK and fold it. Yet I still bet the turn for around 250 to find out where I stand.

[Fnord]

This is how I would play a king in the hole, except value betting the river. If you got 3 kings, why would you make the river bet a hard one to call?

This is exactly why I make this bet into known thinking players who know that I'm a thinking player. I've gotten several FTR folks to make calls this way when they are pretty far behind.

[Fnord]

Looks to me like a Soupie-esque flopped monster play.

Inquiring minds want to know more...

[Aplomado]

Yeah I agree with Fnord, the river bet is what makes me believe he's bluffing. CO only calls after the flop and he checks the turn despite being in position, which has gotta look weak to UTG. If I'm UTG and I'm holding the K, the one thing I'm NOT doing is going all-in when I feel like my hand is good and I can squeeze a few more bucks out of this guy, especially since he looks to weak to call an AI.

On the flip side, if he doesn't have the K, this seems like a more normal play. When that second King hits on the turn, he checks. When he sees you check, he's thinking he can scare you out of the pot with an AI on the river, especially when a harmless 8 hits. Seems like a classic bluff scenario to me.

Of course maybe this guy's a genius, but I gotta say 9 out of 10 people are bluffing in this situation.

Heh maybe we're all wrong and he has pocket 8s.

[a500lbgorilla]

Yeah I agree with Fnord, the river bet is what makes me believe he's bluffing.

Then you actually DISagree with Fnord.

A big bet into a thinking player looks so much like a bluff that it probably isn't. Except for preflop, I woulda played AKo EXACTLY like this guy.

-'rilla

[Aplomado]

Yeah I agree with Fnord, the river bet is what makes me believe he's bluffing.

Then you actually DISagree with Fnord.

A big bet into a thinking player looks so much like a bluff that it probably isn't. Except for preflop, I woulda played AKo EXACTLY like this guy.

-'rilla

that's what i meant, sorry

I'd love to hear how this hand ended, gabe

[Fnord]

A big bet into a thinking player looks so much like a bluff that it probably isn't. Except for preflop, I woulda played AKo EXACTLY like this guy.

I doubt he's thinking on that level though...

[gabe]

Yeah I agree with Fnord, the river bet is what makes me believe he's bluffing.

Then you actually DISagree with Fnord.

A big bet into a thinking player looks so much like a bluff that it probably isn't. Except for preflop, I woulda played AKo EXACTLY like this guy.

-'rilla

that's what i meant, sorry

I'd love to hear how this hand ended, gabe

hero folded and thus made the conclusion of this thread uninteresting

[dalecooper]

...because if you're confident in your game/bankroll/reads having players bluff money at you is good. Most of the least sophisticated winning players (many who earn a hell of a lot more than me), will say stuff like "I'm good at picking off bluffs." Something to ponder...

That's the gospel truth. You can make a ton of chips on otherwise uninteresting hands by inducing bluffs with a good read. How much would you usually expect to make on a hand where you had second pair and the other guy had a busted draw? Little or nothing, right? Maybe even lose the pot because you don't like the strength of your hand and he takes control of the betting? Now turn it around: you read him for the draw early, subsequent streets don't look to fill his draw or improve his hand, and you show considerable weakness by checking the last couple streets. He makes a big overbet - and you call. Instant profit from a hand where neither of you had anything close to the nuts.

It's a risky way to play, and for reasons already mentioned it can get you into a lot of trouble vs. thinking players who have made you as a thinking player. But against aggro donks, this is a friggin' goldmine. ESPECIALLY in SnG's.

[Blinky]

Would anyone else put the opp on a mid PP? say 77-JJ?

Limp and call with a PP is possible, esp since the blinds are so small.

Though I definitely need refinement on my postflop play,
I'm thinking the opp's thoughts along these lines:

flop: did he hit a K?
- hero's call doesn't give much, but wouldn't someone with AK raise?

turn: maybe he's got the K as he called my bet. check.
river: maybe he doesn't have the K. My PP might be good.

Or of course he might have spiked an 8, but I would likely valuebet this, unless we're talking about "oh it looks like an obvious steal" type of bet.

[ilikeaces86]

I doubt there is much statistical EV difference between a call and a fold here.

[Xanadu]

Well, he made a pot bet on the flop. A good player probably wouldn't have bet that big without a king. The turn check could either mean he has the king or that he doesnt. This is a very read dependent play. If this is a player who tends to check extremely strong hands and bet lesser hands, then this is a check. If this is a player who always bets out with a strong hand but tends to check when weak, then you can consider folding the flop, but can also bet out the turn.

Looks to me like a Soupie-esque flopped monster play.

Inquiring minds want to know more...

Sorry about low explanation there.

There's a play I see Soupie make countless times in which where he flops a monster and is first to act in a shorthanded or heads up pot. He bets the flop weak, and if called he checks to the turn, and then he goes all in on the river. It's unbelieveable how often this works.

I'm just commenting that UTG+1's play here looks remarkably similar to that, only difference being that the flop bet wasn't weak.

[Pingviini]

I am weak-tight and I fold here. Wouldnt be surprised to see him having a boat. I would make a crying call with KQ and naturally with AK. Overbetting a monster here looks like a beautiful play to me.

In my opinion, why would a busted flush draw go AI when he could just bet half the pot to see if the other guy has a K or not. Also I am fairly sure a smaller PP would just check-call or make a blocking bet on the river. Well, that is at least how I would've played if I was villain here

[gabe]

In my opinion, why would a busted flush draw go AI when he could just bet half the pot to see if the other guy has a K or not. Also I am fairly sure a smaller PP would just check-call or make a blocking bet on the river. Well, that is at least how I would've played if I was villain here

" villian is aggro. he has a tendency to bet small with good hands, so this seemed out of place."

this read was written poorly, but that's one of the reasons that i think a missed hand on his part would do this.