AA tough turn decision

[spino1i]

Whats your play here and why? Villian unknown..

***** Hand History for Game 2798232834 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 29, 22:17:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 49238 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: JadeStar ( $201.72 )
Seat 2: cleve2005 ( $228 )
Seat 3: shothemuny ( $368.66 )
Seat 4: johnsongras ( $240.25 )
Seat 5: eased13 ( $195.65 )
Seat 6: EvilEcstasy_ ( $200 )
Seat 7: ceuinvegas ( $294.28 )
Seat 8: videoman38 ( $200 )
Seat 9: HommePoisson ( $211.40 )
Seat 10: Domminator ( $160 )
eased13 posts small blind [$1].
EvilEcstasy_ posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EvilEcstasy_ [ Ad As ]
ceuinvegas folds.
videoman38 folds.
HommePoisson folds.
Domminator folds.
JadeStar folds.
cleve2005 folds.
shothemuny calls [$2].
johnsongras folds.
eased13 calls [$1].
EvilEcstasy_ raises [$6].
shothemuny calls [$6].
eased13 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 8s, 3c ]
EvilEcstasy_ checks.
shothemuny checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
EvilEcstasy_ bets [$10].
shothemuny raises [$50].
EvilEcstasy_ ???

[bencathers]

He has a pair of jacks and checked the river to see where he stands... he's putting you on AK or AX and trying to stop the post right there. Re-raise and go all in if possible. Maybe a set turning a FH? But he does NOT have a 3... if he does... well then maybe that's why I don't play ring

[okietalker]

My first reaction is fold. But, since you checked the flop, he could have anything from a single jack to A3 suited or even 8's full. My best guess would be 88, A3, or possibly JJ. I do not think that AJ or something like that would check behind on the flop, just too risky for the Q or K to come.

Question to ask your self.

Why would he bet $50 after checking the flop?
What would he be willing to check the flop with and the overbet the pot so hard with? there's what $14 in the pot at the point you bet $10?

So a reraise to $50 for a $24 or $25 dollar pot seems like an either know your player or fold situation to me.

If you know the player well and he is a "playa" then all in might be what you want to do.

I do want to ask you why you checked the flop though. Was it to induce a bluff? If so, why are you asking what you should do?

[r8ed]

Not betting the flop did put you in this predicament. That being said, I think I call here just because folding Aces is so tough and something smells fishy about his bet. It seems like he is playing off your weakness and doesn't want a call. If he had a boat, then what's his rush? It really is a hard decision.

[dsaxton]

I think you should probably fold without strong reason to believe he's bluffing, since that's essentially all you can beat. I would think that he has a 3, since this doesn't really seem consistent with any other hands. A full house should make a smaller raise on the turn, and top pair should have bet on the flop, and wouldn't raise so large on the turn. Given that you have two aces in your hand, it's hard to put him on a hand like A-3 suited, but I''d suspect that's what he has.

Also, if he were willing to bluff, why would he wait for you to bet, instead of simply betting on the flop when you show weakness? It seems likely then that he has some sort of a made hand, and the only way you're ahead is if he's seriously overplaying it.

[okietalker]

R8ed,
Why is folding aces so tough? In order to win the most money in the long run you had better be prepared to lay down an overpair when the situation calls for it. Or, believe me, you will pay for the mistake.

Just curious.

[bair]

im probably pushing here, his raise is too big to be a boat, and it looks like to me he thought you were bluffing when the board paired, so he bluffed back representing the 3.

[ender555]

definitely think he has a jack here.. very large raise here not boat/set/trips. i would definitely shove