can someone run the odds on this absurd hand????

[payt0n]

PokerStars Game #2689553412: Tournament #12956842, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/09/29 - 18:32:59 (ET)
Table '12956842 122' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: fatbot (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: DealindaNutz (3000 in chips)
Seat 3: paytontaro (3420 in chips)
Seat 4: hawnboy73 (1480 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: Falcon 1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: hardluckcash (1100 in chips)
Seat 7: tsang (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: *thehu$tler (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: johearn5 (1500 in chips)
hawnboy73: posts small blind 10
Falcon 1: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to paytontaro [Ad As]
hardluckcash: folds
tsang: calls 20
*thehu$tler: folds
johearn5: folds
fatbot: folds
DealindaNutz: raises 900 to 920
paytontaro: raises 900 to 1820
hawnboy73: folds
Falcon 1: folds
tsang: folds
DealindaNutz: calls 900
*** FLOP *** [8c 7s Kd]
DealindaNutz: bets 1180 and is all-in
paytontaro: calls 1180
*** TURN *** [8c 7s Kd] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [8c 7s Kd Qs] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DealindaNutz: shows [Tc Ah] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
paytontaro: shows [Ad As] (a pair of Aces)
paytontaro said, "omg"
DealindaNutz said, "omg!"
paytontaro said, "omg"
DealindaNutz collected 6050 from pot
paytontaro said, "omg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6050 | Rake 0
Board [8c 7s Kd Qs Jc]
Seat 1: fatbot folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: DealindaNutz showed [Tc Ah] and won (6050) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 3: paytontaro (button) showed [Ad As] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: hawnboy73 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Falcon 1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: hardluckcash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: tsang folded before Flop
Seat 8: *thehu$tler folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: johearn5 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[saxdaddy]

he needed a T and one of the remaining Aces which is (4/47) *(2/46) or 8/2162 = .37 % to win. You were .9963/.0037 = 269.27:1 to win! Dam that sucked!

[Staple Gun]

Wrong forum, and perhaps not as bad a beat as you thought. Although still horrible, not incomprehensible.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 8c Kd
cards     win   %win      lose  %lose       tie   %tie        EV
As Ad     939  94.85        51   5.15         0   0.00     0.948
Tc Ah      51   5.15       939  94.85         0   0.00     0.052

[payt0n]

oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right?

[drmcboy]

^

lol


Board:
Dead:

         equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	91.2860 %  	90.68% 	00.61%      { AdAs }
Hand  2:	08.7140 %  	08.11% 	00.61%      { AhTc }

[tcpj4]

oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right?

It says in his little log thing that the board cards are taken into consideration.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop

obviously you don't understand...

[bencathers]

atrocious beat but i still love you

[stranglin]

Where can I get this code you guys are using?

Anyhow, here's how I've worked it out:
T,T = 3/47*2/46 = .2775%
Q,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
9,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
J, 9 or Q = 4/47*8/46 = 1.48%

For a grand chance of 3.2377%

My guess here is that I couldn't think of other ways he could lose.

[rubixstreub]

that's nothing, look at my suck out against this guy.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...025&highlight=

[drmcboy]

http://www.pokerstove.com/

[Pyroxene]

Where can I get this code you guys are using?

Anyhow, here's how I've worked it out:
T,T = 3/47*2/46 = .2775%
Q,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
9,J = 4/47*4/46 = .7401%
J, 9 or Q = 4/47*8/46 = 1.48%

For a grand chance of 3.2377%

My guess here is that I couldn't think of other ways he could lose.

You have a few mistakes.

First, do not divide by 47 and 46. Seven cards are known, your 2, his 2 and the 3 on the board. Divide by 45 and 44, that moves the odds up a bit.

Second, you are backing into the odds of Q,J vs J,Q and J,9 vs 9,J. Let's try to be more explicit about the odds.

Third: 9,6 gives him a win as well.

So ...

T,T = 3/45*2/44 = .3030%
Q,J or J,Q= 8/45*4/44 = 1.6161%
9,J or J,9 = 8/45*4/44 = 1.61.61%
9,6 or 6,9 = 8/45*4/44 = 1.6161

For a total of 5.1513% which matches what Poker Stove came up with.

[Staple Gun]

oh no i understand my odds of losing were in the 3-5% range preflop, i meant postflop what were his chances of sucking 0ut on me? he needed running tens or running jack queen right?

As Barry Greenstein would say "you were drawing dead from the minute you sat down"