Tough hand final table of $150 on stars

[ilikeaces86]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t99448)
MP (t81138)
CO (t72351)
Button (t85536)
SB (t74810)
Hero (t86217)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5.
1 fold, MP raises to t12000, 3 folds, Hero calls t8000.

Flop: (t21000) 4, 7, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t68938 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t89938

How would u play it?

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Fold, just as you did.

[jmontis]

you're either a big dog or a slight favorite, is it worth $x,000 to gamble on this hand?

[Demiparadigm]

You are never a big dog.
Worst case scenario you are drawing to 10 outs. (38%)
Best case scenario he is drawing to 6 outs (70%)

From there it is a pretty simple ICM problem.

[gabe]

You are never a big dog.

you are against a fishy AK, but using that excuse to call is usually not good, just convenient.

[Staple Gun]

It seems unlike you to check the flop. I assume you were planning on pushing if he raised, not expecting that push.

I folded expecting to be vs. a higher pocket pair.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

The point is that you're risking your stack in a situation where you aren't sure where you stand. Folding is clearly the best option.

[stranglin]

I think your fold here is fine. However, I probably would have bet big on the flop (3xbb perhaps) and see where he stands. If he calls, you see one more card. If he folds, great. And if he raises, then at least you know where you stand for sure.

[jdubs]

I think your fold here is fine. However, I probably would have bet big on the flop (3xbb perhaps) and see where he stands. If he calls, you see one more card. If he folds, great. And if he raises, then at least you know where you stand for sure.

not a bad idea I think....

[chardrian]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t99448)
MP (t81138)
CO (t72351)
Button (t85536)
SB (t74810)
Hero (t86217)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5.
1 fold, MP raises to t12000, 3 folds, Hero calls t8000.

Flop: (t21000) 4, 7, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t68938 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t89938

How would u play it?

Depends on what your read on MP is. 6 left and you guys are all close in chips and none of you are really shortstacked - yikes and fun! My thinking would be: I am good enough that I can fold here and make it back. Why donk it off, after playing so well and lose in 6th when you are not positive you are ahead? Two suited overcards and you are racing, a 6 , a 7 or an over pair and you are behind. The fold isn't the hard decision here tho, it was whether to check or bet out on the flop. But if you had bet out, it would've been hard to impossible to fold to a reraise.

[zenbitz]

I don't like the call - pre-flop check-fold line, it's very weak. You can't call that raise hoping for a set, can you?

This is a pretty good flop for you. Definitly a tough call on the FT though!

It's your read, but it looks like he's making a move to me.

An aside - if you are MP holding AXc, do you push the flop if checked to you, or take a free card.

[chardrian]

I don't like the call - pre-flop check-fold line, it's very weak. You can't call that raise hoping for a set, can you?

This is a pretty good flop for you. Definitly a tough call on the FT though!

It's your read, but it looks like he's making a move to me.

An aside - if you are MP holding AXc, do you push the flop if checked to you, or take a free card.

You can't call hoping for a set, but you can call hoping for 2 broadways that don't hit, or simply to outplay him postflop. In this case his push made outplaying postflop impossible to do. But against a standard TAGG, the call, check, wait for the continuation bet and then raise often works.

As to your aside, when the blind calls my raise I put him on a decent hand at the FT - with that flop, I just check it with Ax suited.

[ilikeaces86]

I saw this guy do the same play with AQ overcards later on at that same final table on a similar flop. Nnow I am wishing I would have called this. At the time I had no read on this kind of play from him tho

[Demiparadigm]

The point is that you're risking your stack in a situation where you aren't sure where you stand. Folding is clearly the best option.

I am bumping this thread because I think most of the replies are completely wrong.

You know exactly where you stand. You have a pair and OESD.
You are either 40% or 70% to win.
There is about a 50% chance of each. (Assuming he will make this play with any overpair, and AK/AQ.

If you call and win you will have X chips which = Y$Equity
If you call and lose, you get 6th place money.

IF the % you win x Y$ Equity > %you lose x 6th place money

Then a call is correct. There is no debating this fact.

The only issue is to determine the value of $Y.

ICM gives us a simple way to do this. It assumes equal skill for all players, so it is therefore intrinsically flawed.

You must also take Q value into account(How your stack compares to the average) and the average M value for the table and where you will be if you fold. (How long do you have before you need to make a move)

NOTE: I am using HoH terms, but these are not unique concepts. They are simple fact, that all good tournament players know.

The idea that you don't want to gamble and you are afraid you might be beaten no longer comes into play. You will never win a tournament waiting for the nuts.

[gabe]

The idea that you don't want to gamble and you are afraid you might be beaten no longer comes into play. You will never win a tournament waiting for the nuts.

got this, chris???

[Fnord]

What's the payout schedule? Certainly one for the ICM.

For pure chips, this is a darn good spot to gamble. I don't think big pairs play like this very often and this is the best flop you can get with 55 short of a set.

[chardrian]

The point is that you're risking your stack in a situation where you aren't sure where you stand. Folding is clearly the best option.

I am bumping this thread because I think most of the replies are completely wrong.

You know exactly where you stand. You have a pair and OESD.
You are either 40% or 70% to win.
There is about a 50% chance of each. (Assuming he will make this play with any overpair, and AK/AQ.

If you call and win you will have X chips which = Y$Equity
If you call and lose, you get 6th place money.

IF the % you win x Y$ Equity > %you lose x 6th place money

Then a call is correct. There is no debating this fact.

The only issue is to determine the value of $Y.

ICM gives us a simple way to do this. It assumes equal skill for all players, so it is therefore intrinsically flawed.

You must also take Q value into account(How your stack compares to the average) and the average M value for the table and where you will be if you fold. (How long do you have before you need to make a move)

NOTE: I am using HoH terms, but these are not unique concepts. They are simple fact, that all good tournament players know.

The idea that you don't want to gamble and you are afraid you might be beaten no longer comes into play. You will never win a tournament waiting for the nuts.

I understand what you are saying demi, and agree with it all - a couple of problems for me tho:
1) is it is much easier to make these calculations after the fact rather than during the 1 minute you have to act.
2) you made it a little too simplisitc - I realize that you need to simplify things when it is 6 handed, and if you run into a hand like a set here oh well, but... saying you have either 10 outs or he has 6 outs ain't right either. I definitely will assume he makes this play with an overpair, but I'm not so quick to assume he makes this play with AQ or AK unless it's suited, in which case we're racing. I know aces saw him make a similar play later with AQ - but without that read, I think you need to lean much more heavily to the "he has an overpair" rather than "he has overcards" line of thought.

In the end - I actually think this is one of those hands where you can't really screw-up. A call was risky but fine. A fold was semi-weak but also fine. The only screw-up would be if you folded and that set you into a semi-tilt.

[gabe]

What's the payout schedule? Certainly one for the ICM.

at a glance, doesn't it seem marginal? and why call off chips in a marginal situation if you can outplay the entire table? the stacks are certainly deep enough to allow for post flop play for another round or so.

[K2 the ArmA]

He just thinks you will fold with any hand you can just call with pf. Call.

[ilikeaces86]

This hand make my head spin

[chardrian]

Mine too.

So how'd ya do in the end?

[soupie]

NOTE: I am using HOH terms, but these are not unique concepts. They are simple fact, that all good tournament players know.

Um, i think i just got owned. I have no idea what all that crap is. Sucks to be one of the old farts sometimes.

[ilikeaces86]

Mine too.

So how'd ya do in the end?

3rd

[Demiparadigm]

NOTE: I am using HOH terms, but these are not unique concepts. They are simple fact, that all good tournament players know.

Um, i think i just got owned. I have no idea what all that crap is. Sucks to be one of the old farts sometimes.

Q= Your chips/ Average chip stack (How much equity you have in the tournament)

M= Your chips/ pot size preflop. (how many orbits you have left before blinding out)

You understand better than most, I am sure.

The point is- sometimes you have to go with a hand, sometimes you don't.

Truthfully, I think this is a clear fold.
I just wanted to bring up the factors that need to be constantly considered in the tournament. This is not a fold because "you don't know where you are at" or because "you might be up against a big pair"
It is a fold because if you fold, you will have an average chip stack. If you call and win, you will double your chip stack, but you do not double your real money equity. If you call and lose, you are out in 6th place.
It is a fold because of the equity issues that are in play. Each decision at this point in a tournament has both a chip equity and real money equity.
The point is to maximize your real money equity, which many times becomes counterintuitive.

[ilikeaces86]

Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.

[storm75m]

I take a long time to think about it, then close my eyes and call. Looks too much like AK, could possibly be AcKc which would suck. I think a better hand would try to get more chips in the pot. Why is he in such a hurry to take it down? I know you were going for a check raise, but betting out would have made everything much easier. (Hmmm, what about pushing into him first???) I'm starting to like that play more and more when tourneys get short and I have a hand like that.

[Demiparadigm]

Board: 4c 7c 6d 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	49.4721 %  	48.77% 	00.70%      { 5c5s }
Hand  2:	50.5279 %  	49.83% 	00.70%      { 88+, AQs+, AKo }

If we tighten up his hand we get

Board: 4c 7c 6d 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	54.3788 %  	53.58% 	00.80%      { 5c5s }
Hand  2:	45.6212 %  	44.82% 	00.80%      { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

So we are actually a favorite against a smaller range.

Typical payout for a $150 tourney is:

30%
20%
12%
8%
6.5%
5%

[a500lbgorilla]

Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.

Who said this? You don't use the word inept.

-'rilla

[gabe]

but he will use 'ineptitude' eh??

[zenbitz]

Demi -

Your range of hands is inaccurate, because he could be stealing from MP with almost anything - includuing 2 clubs. Since you hold 2 of the 5s, I have no problem eliminating OESDs from his holdings... allthough he could have like 8Tc giving him a double gutshot & flush draw (with you holding 2 of his outs)

If aces had re-raised pre-flop, you could better put him on a hand from pre-flop action.

Post flop action - I think he could make this move with any 2 clubs, overcards, or any pair (i.e, any 4, 6, 7 or pocket). So, actually, the only thing you can truly eliminate are hands containing 2s and 3s.

[Aquinas]

Haven't read the whole thread...but I call here every day! This is a miracle flop for u.
Not sure if I like the pf call though. But once u get to this flop, call and celebrate.

[Staple Gun]

Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.

Therefore, the more brilliant you arem the more inept your opponet appears to be.

[Staple Gun]

Haven't read the whole thread...but I call here every day! This is a miracle flop for u.
Not sure if I like the pf call though. But once u get to this flop, call and celebrate.

You have to keep in mind that people arn't always bluffing. When I rail pros, I have noticed that a majority of their huge pots come from playing out hard like betting with top set on the flop, it is read as a bluff and they will often get pushes from people drawing dead.

[Chicago_Kid]

Haven't read the whole thread...but I call here every day! This is a miracle flop for u.
Not sure if I like the pf call though. But once u get to this flop, call and celebrate.

You have to keep in mind that people arn't always bluffing. When I rail pros, I have noticed that a majority of their huge pots come from playing out hard like betting with top set on the flop, it is read as a bluff and they will often get pushes from people drawing dead.

If I'm out of position and flop strong, I like the hard flop bet. If I get one caller, and a safe turn comes, I'll check it and let an aggro hang himself. SO fun...

[Hate]

I call this everytime

[Corey]

so what happen?

[DoGGz]

so what happen?

He folded.

Overpair doesn't make that bet, I call every day and twice on sundays. I would have looked to checkraise in the first place.

[arkana]

If you don't have a big edge over the opponents or the blinds are higher then call.
In this case I think that giving up what could be a marginal +EV situation (which causes higher variance) and waiting for a better spot is quite acceptable. (If its a SNG and not a final table I call).