JJ

[bigg_nate]

9-handed early in a SnG (all stacks are >30BB), I've got JJ on the button. 5 players limp, CO folds, I limp, blinds complete and check. 8 (!) players to the flop. Needless to say, it's a loose table.

Flop: KK5 rainbow. First 5 players check, #6 bets 1/3 of the pot. #7 calls, I call.

Comments?

- Nate

[bair]

id probably just fold

[zenbitz]

There are 14 unknown cards and 2 kings left. The odds that NO ONE left has a king are:

1 - ((1-2/47)^14th power) (roughly) abougt 46%.

In order for calling (or even raising) to be a good move:
1) The first 5 to act all must not have the K
2) player #7 has to be a total moron.

I think this pot goes to
a) guy with the king
OR
b) first guy to bet

In that order.

[bigg_nate]

FWIW, here's my reasoning on the flop:

#6's bet looked weak to me, and I guessed that he was just making an ill-conceived attempt to buy the pot. It looked to me like #7 had something -- maybe a K, but could just as easily be a lower pocket pair or a 5. I figured I was ahead often enough, and the odds were good enough, to call.

I don't think I beat anyone who would check-call or check-raise this flop, so if anyone else calls I'm done with the hand.

- Nate

[tom]

why not raise with JJ on the button?

[vqc]

i fold there, there are way to many people to that flop and way too many people to act after u .

[drmcboy]

I am fine with limping JJ here, but you can't get fancy after you do.

[vqc]

what rilla says is

once u do this ---> (points to hte limp)
you lose the ability to play for anything except a set.

there are situations where this isnt true, but u gotta just fold here.

I think ur going ot be trapped between a better and a check raiser here.

[bigg_nate]

If you care, here's how it turned out:
#6 folded the turn, #7 had AQh (i.e., nothing), BB had K7o and just called the flop. I was ready to throw the hand away, but the turn brought Jh and the river brought the heart flush, and I tripled up.

Still not sure if my flop call was correct -- but raising preflop probably would've made the decision easier.

- Nate

[Staple Gun]

I am fine with limping JJ here, but you can't get fancy after you do.

Amen