Good fold?

[Iwind]

FullTiltPoker Game #273674337: Table Colton - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:48:43 ET - 2005/11/01
Seat 1: Leader00 ($50.60)
Seat 2: benzer ($22.60)
Seat 3: Indianlil ($47.45)
Seat 4: Iwind ($49.50)
Seat 5: madtown9 ($28.95)
Seat 6: FabBadDog ($83.35)
Seat 7: NICKY WHITE ($61.85)
Seat 8: onemeanpuppy ($59.35)
Seat 9: BUBUDOBAKDAN ($22.20)
Indianlil posts the small blind of $0.25
Iwind posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Iwind [Kd Ah]
madtown9 calls $0.50
FabBadDog calls $0.50
NICKY WHITE calls $0.50
onemeanpuppy folds
BUBUDOBAKDAN folds
Leader00 folds
benzer has 15 seconds left to act
benzer folds
Indianlil calls $0.25
Iwind raises to $2.50
madtown9 folds
FabBadDog folds
NICKY WHITE calls $2
Indianlil calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Kc 5s Jc]
Indianlil bets $8.50
Iwind has 15 seconds left to act
Iwind raises to $20
NICKY WHITE calls $20
Indianlil raises to $44.95, and is all in
Iwind has 15 seconds left to act
Iwind folds

NICKY WHITE calls $24.95
Indianlil shows [5c 5h]
NICKY WHITE shows [Ac 4c]
*** TURN *** [Kc 5s Jc] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [Kc 5s Jc Qc] [6h]
Indianlil shows three of a kind, Fives
NICKY WHITE shows a flush, Ace high
NICKY WHITE wins the pot ($115.40) with a flush, Ace high
Indianlil: nh
Indianlil is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $118.40 | Rake $3
Board: [Kc 5s Jc Qc 6h]

I put Indianlil on a top pair or possibly two pair first, but I can't lay down top pair to a pot-sized bet, can I? When Nicky White called I put him on a flush draw. Then Indianlill's all in made me pretty sure he had two pair or possibly a set so I folded. What do you think of my play in this hand? Results are in white if you're curious what they had.

[r8ed]

Before seeing the results, I thougth it was a good fold. You don't want to risk your stack with TPTK and two people in the hand. Good laydown.

[johnny_fish]

Easy fold with the call+reraise behind you. I'd probably call if it was heads up, but not too sure of that..

[UG]

Easy fold. Way to save yourself some money.

[Fnord]

I really hate putting half of it in there, then folding out the other half.

[UG]

I really hate putting half of it in there, then folding out the other half.

Your girl hates it when this happens too.


No really, this to me is an instafold, unless one of the stacks is a mini-stack. If you throw a huge bet down and it gets called/reraised like this you're usually behind here. If the action dictates that you are beat, you probably are.

[Fnord]

I think raise/folding this with half our stack sucks.

How much of the puzzle can we put together before "raising for informaition?" What do we know about our opponent and what would cause him to pot it like that out of position and into strength? We might just find a fold.

If he is betting a draw into us, then why not just call and play a turn? Qc is a pretty easy card to laydown to. A semi-bluff might put it all in on the flop when we fail to fold the first time around, however, if he misses out of position it really puts him in a spot. Plus we can't be bluff calling.

[r8ed]

When you know you are beat, salvage whatever chips you can. Yes, it sucks to put half your stack in and fold. But it's better than putting half in, then the other half and losing it all. This separates the great players from the rest of the pack. They have no shame folding when they are beat regardless of how much they previously put in.

[Fnord]

Laydown when you must be beat, yada, yada, yada...

Think one play ahead here. Why would you put in $20 here if you didn't plan to put the rest in? Hero is getting around 5:1 on his money here.

[r8ed]

He bet to discourage the draw with his top TPTK - not to feel out if he's ahead. A draw just calls this bet or folds. A reraise means he's probably not on a draw and has a real hand. Iwind didn't expect this and realized with two people in, one has a better hand already. Take the $20 in invest in a better hand.

[Fnord]

He bet to discourage the draw with his top TPTK - not to feel out if he's ahead.

Then how is raising to $20 planning to fold to a re-raise better than just pushing? I wouldn't mind a big draw folding here as I just made a bunch of money by betting him out of his considerable pot equity. Also, pushes like this make it more likely I get called when I over-bet the nuts.

A draw just calls this bet or folds. A reraise means he's probably not on a draw and has a real hand.

Without a read that's a horrible assumption. I sure as hell would stick the rest in with a big draw if I still had a chance in hell of getting you to fold. Big draws don't want to see turns out of position with a moderate amount of money behind.

[Iwind]

Well, maybe the $20 raise was bad, I didn't put him on a draw but I thought he might fold to my raise, even if he had two pair. I mean with my raise pre-flop he could have put me on KK. And if he was on a draw, I think he would have called my raise like the guy after me did who actually had the draw. When he goes all in afterwards I am certain that I am beat, and I was also pretty sure the guy after me had the nut flush draw. And remember, I was pretty sure the guy behind me would just fold to this a big raise. His call does change the picture, they can't both be on draws. (At least very very unlikely)

So do I call the all in here? I don't see how I can, with that all in he probably has at least two pair. If he has two pair, one of them being the King, I only have 2 outs. (As I belive the guy on the draw has the Ac) If he has a set of jacks or fives I also only have 2 outs, the kings, or two more aces. I haven't done the math on this, but I believe my odds for winning here are way way lower than my pot odds.

[Fnord]

Well, maybe the $20 raise was bad, I didn't put him on a draw but I thought he might fold to my raise, even if he had two pair.

I don't see a lot of value in trying to push people off 2 pair.

[bair]

played perfect.

[sejje]

I don't see a lot of value in trying to push people off 2 pair.

True dat. I can list the people on one finger who I've met that lay down 2 pair in 50NL on that flop.

[r8ed]

He bet to discourage the draw with his top TPTK - not to feel out if he's ahead.

Then how is raising to $20 planning to fold to a re-raise better than just pushing?

The point I'm making is he raised without even considering he would be reraised because he thought he was ahead. In hindsight, nobody is going to bet $20 here and think - well I'll fold when he reraises me.

I think it was played well and folded correctly. Pushing with TPTK usually doesn't have a happy ending.

[Fnord]

The point I'm making is he raised without even considering he would be reraised because he thought he was ahead. In hindsight, nobody is going to bet $20 here and think - well I'll fold when he reraises me.

...and the point I'm making is that not thinking one bet ahead in NLHE costs you money as manipulating pot size is a core skill. If called, does the rest always go in one way or another?

For what it's worth, this is a very difficult hand and re-raise 3x to see where you're at is a pretty standard line. I thought about it for a while over lunch and it came down to just about every option looking better than making it $20 flat. Maybe I'm horribly mistaken.

[Iwind]

I don't see a lot of value in trying to push people off 2 pair.

I agree, if I thought his most likely hand was two pair, I would not have made this raise. Just meant that there was a chance that he would fold it, even very small, and that's a benefit of my raise. I guess I had 3 options here, make this raise, push all in or fold. Raising more would put too much of my chips in, so it's either this raise or all in I think.

Folding - well I don't like folding when I think chanes are pretty high that I'm ahead.
Pushing - a draw would fold most likely and sets and two pair would call, QK or worse kicker would fold. Is this really better than my raise?
My raise - a draw would call I think, like the guy here did, or might push but not that likely. Someone with a better hand than mine would push all in, then I fold. QK with worse kicker would fold. With a sceary card on turn I would check and fold to the draw, if not I'd go all in and get the others to fold or call their draw
with bad odds.

I still don't see why the other options are better than the raise I made, but there might be flaws in my reasoning.