Pot odds can be the death of your SNG.

[Fortune 500]

I had an epiphany last night while playing poker. I was thinking back to a hand that I had played and had discussed on FTR recently. I played it mostly as a pot odds hand, and ignored what dawned on me as one of the primary differences between SNGs and ring games. I don’t know if this has been covered in FTR, but I’m sure it’s not ground breaking, but I thought I would break it down for newer players both as one of my ways to help out FTR, and as a way to congeal my thoughts on the subject…. Here goes.

If you get married to pot odds, you will lose SNGs. Period.

Okay. Post over. Discuss.

Seriously though… Pot odds is a tricky concept that many new players struggle with. It’s covered extensively in any poker book, and once it clicks with you, you feel like a whole new world has opened up to you.

But I firmly think now that the mathematically correct pot odds call, and the strategic play for the SNG environment can often be two different things.

Contrast this to a ring game where pot odds rule the roost. If you’re getting 4 to 1 on your flush draw after the flop, you pretty much have to call, because the odds dictate. There are only sessions to a ring game… there is no end. Ring is one continual experience where the math ultimately leads you to profit. If you turn $100 into $1000 in a ring game, you have $900 more in your bankroll. You’ve profited. It’s substantial.

Contrast that to a SNG, Let’s say there’s 10 players with 1000 chips. You play well, and get a little lucky and win all 10,000 chips. Guess what? You’re starting the next SNG with 1000 chips. You can’t take it with you.

It doesn’t matter whether you go out in 3rd with 10 chips, 100, chips, or 1000 chips. Chips only have monetary value in that they increase your chances to win money. They have a decreasing value in any tournament structure… but what’s truly important is that you ALWAYS have chips. The number is an afterthought. If you’ve got 5 chips, you’ve still got a chance… if you’ve got 0, it’s all over. Therefore the possession of chips is just as important as the Quantity of chips. They represent your lifeblood.


Let’s look at the hand I had in mind. Now, to be fair, I donked this hand up in a lot of places that you can all make fun of. I’ll put the thread in which it is discussed down below and you can go make fun of the general play there, but it illustrates my concept well. I’ll interrupt the hand flow with my thoughts on it as we go.

Table: 3943684 (Real Money) Seat #9 is the dealer
Seat 1 - THEKID1975JU ($280 in chips)
Seat 2 - KIDDCURRY ($2685 in chips)
Seat 3 - DELBUDDAH ($2515 in chips)
Seat 4 - FORTUNE500 ($1455 in chips)
Seat 5 - AVG13AVG ($605 in chips)
Seat 6 - PITTSTEEL ($1530 in chips)
Seat 8 - JHB157 ($2015 in chips)
Seat 9 - GREGHIGH ($2415 in chips)
THEKID1975JU - Posts small blind $20
KIDDCURRY - Posts big blind $40
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to FORTUNE500 [Qh Ah]

Yay. A hand…. That was a nice change of pace.

DELBUDDAH - Calls $40
FORTUNE500 - Raises $120 to $120

Donkey Move number one… I should raise it into the 160-200 range, given the UTG limper and force him to make a move. That’s neither here nor there, as far as this post goes.

AVG13AVG - Calls $120
PITTSTEEL - Folds
JHB157 - Folds
GREGHIGH - Calls $120
THEKID1975JU - Folds
KIDDCURRY - Calls $80
DELBUDDAH - Calls $80

5 Handed with AQ? This sucks already… and I’ve still got the UTG limper in there too.

*** FLOP *** [2h 4h 9c]
K… decent flop. It’s nice and low. I have the nut flush draw, and I can pretty much discount any low draws… Should be okay, if I don’t donk this up….

KIDDCURRY - Checks
DELBUDDAH - Bets $200
FORTUNE500 - Calls $200

Then I go and get all donkey on It here. UTG bets out. He could have anything.. overpair, trips, worse flush draw… no way to really tell. Still there’s about 820 in the pot here, and it’s 200 to call. We can call that 4 to 1, and it’s time to do the math. I’ve got 9 hearts to catch, and it’s possible that an Ace or Queen could win too. I can’t count those as full outs, as I might be up against trips. Instead of counting it as 15 outs, let’s discount it a little bit and call it 13. 13 outs twice is about 55% to win the pot. If my read is right, I might actually be the FAVORITE here. I should raise, but I cold call with THREE people to act behind me.

AVG13AVG - Calls $200
GREGHIGH - Calls $200
KIDDCURRY – Folds

I get away from my cold call relatively unscathed. Let’s not do that again. 1620 in the pot now.


*** TURN *** [2h 4h 9c] [2s]
Not a good card. If any one had a set, they just boated up. If anyone had two pair they could have boated. Anyone with a 2 now was trips. Plus, I missed all my draws. I now have only about 26 percent to catch a hand, and it might still be second best. Let’s say I have a 15 percent chance of winning if I catch an out… is that a good number? Hard to say, but it’s hard to put anyone on a two here.

DELBUDDAH - Bets $200
FORTUNE500 - Calls $200
Doh! I did it again. The almost 9-1 odds the pot offered me are crraazy. Crraazy I tell ya. I have to call… right?

AVG13AVG - Calls $200
GREGHIGH - Raises $400 to $400

Yikes… that 2 hit him. I should fold…

DELBUDDAH - Calls $200
FORTUNE500 - Calls $200
Nice call, Douche. BUT YOU WERE GETTING GREAT ODDS! The math makes my head hurt at this point, but it’s better than 10-1.


AVG13AVG - All-In $85
*** RIVER *** [2h 4h 9c 2s] [Qd]
I hit an out. It’s not a good out… but it’s an out.

DELBUDDAH - Checks
FORTUNE500 - Checks
GREGHIGH - Bets $200
DELBUDDAH - Calls $200
FORTUNE500 - Calls $200

Is my hand good here? I don’t know, but the pot is so big, I’m inclined to call.



*** SHOW DOWN ***


I lost. Greg High had A2 for trips for those that are curious. He’s a fish… but he’s got chips. Me? I’m a fish without many chips at this point. Why? Pot odds.

I douched this hand up in a lot of ways. Had I raised and given myself any fold value, it might be a different story. Had I folded the turn when it was conceivable I was a dead fish in the water, it might have been a different story.But why didn’t I?

The pot odds were too damn good.

I invested 1020 chips in the course of this hand when I was, at my best point about 50/50 to win.

I left myself with some ammo… but very little. Had I gotten away from this on the turn, I’d still have 2/3 if my stack and a little more than 1000 chips. It’s not great position, but I’ve got a pulse.

Am I saying to never call with odds? Of course not.

If we ignore the mistakes I made in not pushing, every call I made was mathematically justifiable, I believe… but I ignored the one key element of a SNG…

It’s not always about math… but simply about HAVING chips. I called off 65% of my stack when I was at best 5% favorite.

All I’m saying is the next time you want to call off your chips on a draw where you’re an underdog, ignore the odds for a moment. Ask yourself “If I fold, do I have enough chips to be substantial later when I’m way ahead in a hand?” Then ask yourself “If I call and miss, will I have enough chips to be substantial later when I get a made hand?”

Then consider whether you should maybe just Muck it and wait for a better spot. There’s no right or wrong answer… but your decision could mean the difference between Money and 6th place.

Food for thought. Discuss.

[gabe]

cloutier says "in tournaments, the draw is death"

but also, aggression can win tournaments, and you could have played the flop more aggressively without having to worry about pot odds.

[GixMage]

One thing a lot of people dont understand, is that just because you have the odds to call doesnt mean you SHOULD call. Take your example, the call on the flop was fine. On the turn, you hve to drop the hand, EVEN though you have the odds. The reason in this example is the following: you have NO made hand and may be DRAWING DEAD. 10-1 is not good odds if you can not win the hand, and you are not guaranteed to win even if you hit your hand. Pot odds are a great tool if used properly (examples: You think it's a coin flip all in preflop, and you are getting 2-1 or better on your money, or you call a flop bet with odds and a flush draw, etc) But you have to know when to let it go. A rule of thumb I go by is I will play pot odds on the flop, provided it does not risk a significant portion on my chips. If a significant ammount of chips is on the line, and Im calling a bet, I need to know (or have a good guess) that I am ahead (Raising on a draw is a little different, but I hate calling with just a draw for a lot of chips). The goal is to a) make the money, and b) win the tournament. You can do neither is you have 0 chips, even if you got good odds.

[Fortune 500]

cloutier says "in tournaments, the draw is death"

but also, aggression can win tournaments, and you could have played the flop more aggressively without having to worry about pot odds.

I admit and recognize that I played way too weak passive here.

Just trying to help others around here not fall into the same trap.

[thirteen]

Just because you have pot-odds to draw to a specific hand doesn't mean its worth a call. Pot odds should not be your only consideration in a hand. This applies to ring or sng alike.

You have a situation where a) there seem to be people in the hand who seem to me to be drawing to the same flush, you'll have the nut flush, but you likely have less outs than you think. b) on the turn you made note that someone could have filled up, so now you're drawing to a possible second best hand based soley on 'pot odds'. Meanwhile all you have is A high.

[Fortune 500]

Just because you have pot-odds to draw to a specific hand doesn't mean its worth a call. Pot odds should not be your only consideration in a hand. This applies to ring or sng alike.

You have a situation where a) there seem to be people in the hand who seem to me to be drawing to the same flush, you'll have the nut flush, but you likely have less outs than you think. b) on the turn you made note that someone could have filled up, so now you're drawing to a possible second best hand based soley on 'pot odds'. Meanwhile all you have is A high and even if you do hit your flush, are you willing to pay off the boat?

You have a great point, and I understand that. You folks are critiquing things I already pointed out in the hand. I played the hand like a total idiot. But let's change that turn card to a 3, thus eliminating the boat option. Does that make the call any better? I'm not so sure. As far as other folks drawing at the same flush? That's a tricky prospect... it drops my drawing odds to be sure... but it sends my Implied odds through the roof. Is it a 100 percent fair trade? No... but it ain't so bad, either.

[arkana]

Read Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, it covers concepts like this.

[thirteen]

You have a great point, and I understand that. You folks are critiquing things I already pointed out in the hand. I played the hand like a total idiot. But let's change that turn card to a 3, thus eliminating the boat option. Does that make the call any better? I'm not so sure. As far as other folks drawing at the same flush? That's a tricky prospect... it drops my drawing odds to be sure... but it sends my Implied odds through the roof. Is it a 100 percent fair trade? No... but it ain't so bad, either.

No worries Fortune. No one here is saying you played it like an idiot. We're discussing the topic, which is pot-odds in SnG's. Just trying to point out that pot odds do have a place in SnG's but calling only on pot odds, when you could be way behind, is bad news. This applies to Ring or SnG's.

[Fortune 500]

No worries Fortune. No one here is saying you played it like an idiot.

I most definitely am.

[WildBobAA]

No worries Fortune. No one here is saying you played it like an idiot.

I most definitely am.

[Fortune 500]

thanks for the input, WildBob

[gabe]

thanks for the input, WildBob

[gabe]

sorry had to do it

[WildBobAA]

You're overvaluing AQ first of all. I would have just limped and tried to hit a flop hard and go from there. You're in EP so if anyone calls your raise, you're going to be out of position with unpaired high cards which sucks. If you are going to raise, you need to raise more because a limper has already entered the pot. Use the 3x then 1x for every limper rule ( and i would have probably gone 5x in this spot if for some reason I chose to raise PF which I wouldnt).

I don't understand why you think UTG might have a set, he's betting into a bunch of people and a preflop agressor, he proably has TT or JJ since he didn't re raise you PF. I check here everytime if I'm him and I flop a set. You should have raised the flop to drive the three other players (including the guy with A2 out of the hand) and get it heads up with the guy. Even if he has TT or JJ, you have 15 outs here which means you're a favorite and I'd be happy calling an all in if he pushes over the top of you. And he might fold to your raise too. By raising you're giving yourself another chance to win the pot instead of just hitting your draw.

I'd like to know what some of the other players had.

[Fortune 500]

I will defend my play no more. I am overvaluing AQ. Fine.

My read might be off. That's fine.

It's just not the point.

Sigh.

[WildBobAA]

I know what you're trying to say about pot odds and it's true that not matter what, you're never commited to going broke. But I don't think you made any bad calls after the flop. But you wouldn't have to worry about the pot odds if you would take the lead and not be a calling station. It's just that one little mistake led to a bunch of additional (albiet correct) calls.

[adiamant]

The argument though is that while these calls are all sound in a ring game, they might not be so sound in a tournament, and Sklansky's book makes that point too.
Fortune correctly observed that there is a major difference between the ring game, which is neverending, and a tournament, that due to structure creates discontinuities. In the ring, every $1 is worth exactly that - $1. In a tournament, that's no longer true.

Let me give you a hypothetical example:
you're drawing to a 1 in 9 shot, the pots gives you 10 to 1, but you have to go all in for it. Will you?
In the ring? sure, every time all day.
In a tournament? Consider, that if you lose, you're out of the tournament. If you win, you double up - you increase your chances of winning the tournament by X%, but your real monetary gain here is less than 10 times your buy in.

[_KO_]

It's just that one little mistake led to a bunch of additional (albiet correct) calls.

The most important point of the thread. Don't get me wrong, Fortune... I definitely agree with your points on pot odds in SnG's, but eliminating the mistakes that put you in that situation in the first place are, IMO, more important than the decision you make once faced with those odds.

Of course, with that said, I just played a similar hand where I raised 10x BB in an early round after one limper, and 3 people + the limper called.

[gabe]

sklansky underrates the power of having a big stack.

[Fortune 500]

sklansky underrates the power of having a big stack.

This is true too. I've not read TPFAP... I have it, but I've got like 4 other books in front of it, but this is touched on a bit in some other writings of his.

As is the diminishing value of chips. Chips certainly don't lose their power as tools in the game, but they are on a slippery slope in terms of monetary value.

[gabe]

Chips certainly don't lose their power as tools in the game, but they are on a slippery slope in terms of monetary value.

the tricky part is finding a relationship between the power of the big stack and 'monetary value.'

[konahead]

When you have bad position and players to act behind you, you really don't know what your pot odds are going to be. You definitely have to take into account the players left to act. I think you can go by pot odds when you actually know what they are - ie - last to act. And make sure you calculate your pot odds vs draw odds on the next card, not the turn and river, cuz you may (and probably) won't see both cards for the one price. (y'all already know this stuff - I just felt like putting it in writing.....)