Bubble play - Reraising a maniac?

[Simius]

Hi there, been lurking about for a little while and thought I'd finally wade into the fray. Wondered what the thoughts were on this hand, nothing too taxing but I'm still trying to master the finer intricacies of bubble play and am torn on this one.

SnG is $5+0.5 single table. BB was initially pretty loose but clammed right up and hasn't played a hand in about 15 minutes since it got down to 4 players. UTG while pretty loose all the way through (~50% flops seen) has suddenly gone maniac and is raising pretty much every hand. Button is the ultimate calling station and can't have sat out more than 10% of the hands and got the big stack by sacrificing his first born to the poker gods. I've been feeding off the BB with pushes when UTG pauses for breath and haven't had one called yet. The blinds are going up within the next minute.

Anyyyyway, enough prologue heres the hand, was I a little too keen and/or could I have played this any other way?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Hero (t1630)
BB (t1595)
UTG (t4830)
Button (t5445)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 5.
UTG raises to t600, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1630

[Alibi]

You seem very educated for a newcomer. Welcome aboard.

Now, it is excellent that you have such detailed reads on everyone.

I love the play; the only problem comes in that UTG has pretty good odds to call; and if he was fucking around with A8, KT, Q9 he may be justified in calling and flipping with you, especially since you haven't been a rock lately.

I like the play overall though. Don't be afraid to exploit your reads, I just wish you had a better kicker.

[STIdrivr]

ya this is a tough one. It is most likely that he is going to call givin the amount in the pot and chip sizes. You could have the best hand but at best you will be about a 60% favorite before the flop if he has something like J 8 or K 10

[MAX]

If we knew for sure that HERO has no folding equity, is this an easy fold?

[Simius]

What swayed it for me was that I tend to play for 1st rather than dragging my heels into the prizes. Given the stack I had he really would have had to be stealing with trash to fold but he had shown he was perfectly capable of doing that very thing.

If I was wielding a bigger stack this would have been an easy fold unless I had the maniac covered and could pull a convincing resteal. With the blinds going up and my bleeding stack, opportunities for first in vig are limited pretty much to when I'm UTG. The next time that's coming up I would have passed through the 400 BB and if the maniac wasn't going to play back at me the calling station sure as hell was, I had to pinch myself on this hand to make sure he had actually folded his cards for once.

What about the stop and go? Given my fold equity preflop is slim at best would it have been worth calling here and pushing the flop? There he might have called off the hounds and picking up the blinds and his steal would keep me in chips long enough to maybe wait for a better push, assuming he folds that is. Either way my chips are going in the pot.

[a500lbgorilla]

Point one. Awesome avatar.

Point two. Awesome explination of table texture.

Point three. Awesome play.

Point four. Awesome.

-'rilla

[a500lbgorilla]

If we knew for sure that HERO has no folding equity, is this an easy fold?

This is a very good question. How does A5 suited play against UTG's raising range?

If we run with something like 50% of hands, I think A5 will probably be in just about a race. But I cant be sure. I dunno of a site to check this, anyone?

-'rilla

[ProZachNation]

That move was hot, pulled the exact same move in the same spot to stay alive today.

[ProZachNation]

That move was hot, pulled the exact same move in the same spot to stay alive today.

[silverfist]

Great move. Against a maniac, I like to reraise with any pair or any ace. Usually, they have nothing anyway, and then they start to back off.

[Scuba Chuck]

I think you've done a good job s'plaining things.

Some thoughts.

1) Considering the texture of the players, UTG may not be a maniac, he's just correctly playing the bubble. Argument - no point here.

2) Have you thought at all about pot odds in this play? UTG has 2.4:1 pot odds for him to call. Your folding equity is not that strong...

3) Is this the hand you want to risk your tourney life with?

4) Did you consider a stop n go?

[ekillian]

I think with the utter recklessneww around you you can wait for a better situation. Pairs 55-AA and you're in trouble. A6-Ak and you're in trouble. Being dominated is just the shittiest situation you can find yourself in and all those hands dominate you. Pretty much every hand that he'll call you with is gonna be a quasi-race or you'll be dominated. Based on that analysis I really think a fold is in order.

[vqc]

4) Did you consider a stop n go?

I kno he has a read that the BB is ultra tight.
Which I assume, is why your giving heed to a stop and go.
But wihtout this read, you wouldnt advocate it right? He doenst close the action...

[Scuba Chuck]

4) Did you consider a stop n go?

I kno he has a read that the BB is ultra tight.
Which I assume, is why your giving heed to a stop and go.
But wihtout this read, you wouldnt advocate it right? He doenst close the action...

What matters most in the stop n go is position. If BB calls, or pushes, our hero has already decided preflop that all his chips are going in the middle no matter what happens, so BB's actions are not all the relevant.

Focus on your preflop decision, then move forward, if you run into bad luck, you run into bad luck.

Anyhow, from my comments, I'm sure you can tell I don't care for this push here, even though he won it. I think this is a good case where our hero will learn something that worked, and will repeat it, even though I think it will have more negative long term effects than positive. I touched on this topic in another recent post.

FWIW, if I was UTG, I'd be calling with the top 2/3 of hands without even thinking. So that's 67o+. And I think it's fair to assume that our hero can find a better spot for this donkey to pay him off, even though the threat of rising blinds is looming. Furthermore, something he will learn in time, this thought process of "playing for first" has a long term negative expectation as well. People who play this way will either learn otherwise, or will always approach poker as gambling.

[NEtwocards]

Sooooo,

Great instincts, explanations, and moves.

Surprised no one has asked this yet -
Why are you playing the 5 .50s ? You obviously have the skills to be making more $$$ at higher levels...

[Simius]

As I said in the follow-up post in this thread, I did consider the stop and go, probably not as much as I should. The BB wasn't playing with anything but AA or KK here, hell I'd seen him check down winning hands to the river rather than risk a bet even on a rag flop, if he had called I would have known exactly where I stood and acted accordingly. If he wasn't being the rock then I'm folding the hand but as it was I really had to make a play of some kind with the next few hands. Looking at the way the raiser was playing he was working the table pretty well with his stack and considering my stack there really wasn't going to be a better opportunity to fight back unless I picked up a classy hand within the next round. I think I need to slave over a hot ICM calculator for a bit and work the numbers on this one.

Playing for first is not a mentality I espouse for all situations, like any other philosophy it needs to be part of a balanced strategy; but I'm not laying down and dying on the bubble every time just because I'm getting bullied.

And who said I won?

[Simius]

Sooooo,

Great instincts, explanations, and moves.

Surprised no one has asked this yet -
Why are you playing the 5 .50s ? You obviously have the skills to be making more $$$ at higher levels...

Could I make $ at higher levels? Maybe.

There are two very real reasons why I play $5.50s (for now), firstly the eternal bankroll issue. While it's not like the money to inflate my BR would kill me, I really need to get into good habits at the beginning of my poker life. I am all too aware of the fact I leak money like a drain when I have it and I didn't want that to be the case here so I am playing to very strict rules in regards to number of buy-ins etc.

Secondly I've only been playing for three months and as it has been said, "In theory there's no difference between practice and theory, in practice there is".

[STIdrivr]

i still play the 5.50's because i am young and dont have a lot of money. I know i can beat the higher stakes but i just dont have the money for the inevitable bad beats and bad streaks. I have only been playing poker for a little less than a year so i tell myself i play to get better not to make money.

[NEtwocards]

Furthermore, something he will learn in time, this thought process of "playing for first" has a long term negative expectation as well. People who play this way will either learn otherwise, or will always approach poker as gambling.

Chuck, I just reread your above post, and this is a very intriguing comment. Could you elaborate further, or provide a link to something more in depth?

[vqc]

Furthermore, something he will learn in time, this thought process of "playing for first" has a long term negative expectation as well. People who play this way will either learn otherwise, or will always approach poker as gambling.

Chuck, I just reread your above post, and this is a very intriguing comment. Could you elaborate further, or provide a link to something more in depth?

the phrase "play for first not limp into the money" is more often than not used by people who see big cards on the bubble and advocate gambling because "they dont care about naything other than first" and they dont know the actual math behind the play. Often times a play will lead to a negative expectation over time but becuase poeple are unwiling to actually figure that out and love theyre cards, they just say gamboool and end the post there.

Iv been saying this for the longest time.
I hate that phrase.

[Scuba Chuck]

Furthermore, something he will learn in time, this thought process of "playing for first" has a long term negative expectation as well. People who play this way will either learn otherwise, or will always approach poker as gambling.

Chuck, I just reread your above post, and this is a very intriguing comment. Could you elaborate further, or provide a link to something more in depth?

Here's an easy way for you to think about this.

Let's assume the following stacks:

5000
2000
1600 (hero)
1400

Let's assume that this situation occurs 10 times a month. What is the correct strategy? Gamble for first place, or play proper bubble strategy?

What is the probability of finishing first from these situations? What is the probability of finishing 3rd, 2nd and so forth.

My guess is when you analyze this situation over and over, you'll come to the conclusion that the plays that give you the greatest expectation of value, or ROI, is the ones that gives you the highest number of ITM finishes, as opposed to the ones that give you the greatest chances of finish first consistently. And if you play as many games a month as I do, I'm interested in the strategy that increases my expectations, not my first place finishes.

[NEtwocards]

Let's assume the following stacks:

5000
2000
1600 (hero)
1400

Let's assume that this situation occurs 10 times a month. What is the correct strategy? Gamble for first place, or play proper bubble strategy?

What is the probability of finishing first from these situations? What is the probability of finishing 3rd, 2nd and so forth.

My guess is when you analyze this situation over and over, you'll come to the conclusion that the plays that give you the greatest expectation of value, or ROI, is the ones that gives you the highest number of ITM finishes, as opposed to the ones that give you the greatest chances of finish first consistently. And if you play as many games a month as I do, I'm interested in the strategy that increases my expectations, not my first place finishes.

As a relative newcomer to the game, I have found that I need much work on aggression - and matching it up with situational opportunities. Thanks to those on this board willing to share, I'm starting to recognize these situations more often.

I have read many times where one will advocate playing for 1st as opposed to just getting ITM. Frequently, I'll run into times where I am one of those middle stacks and even without doing the math, instinct tells me the percentages just aren't in favor of going for broke every time. Agreed, ROI is what really matters, and discretion will sometimes be the shorter route. Thanks for pointing this out.

[Simius]

Ok, this is my first shot at ICM analysis so if there's anything amiss here please point it out. If anyone with a little more experience at doing this sort of thing wants to give it a once over I'd be most grateful but I think it's ok.

Assuming that BB is folding (which he will without AA if I go all in) this gives from your friendly neighbourhood ICM calculator equity of

Fold to raise: 16.7%
Push not called: 20.6%
Push won: 27.0%
Push lost: 0.0%

So if I push and he calls I could potentially gain 10.3% equity but lose 16.7%, meaning if he calls I have to win 1.62:1 for this to be a break even play.

Against random cards I'm going to win ~60% of the time here which is 1.5:1 so this is going to be a -EV play, so obviously if you're him the smart move is to call with anything.

However that assumes that he knows I'm fighting back and that I may not have a premium hand. I'd been playing reasonably tight throughout, only really starting to get frisky so he may well think I wouldn't risk bubbling without at least a half decent hand. Assume in this situation he at least understands that most of the time he'll stand a reasonable chance against what I have but that utter trash may well be dominated, so he's only going to play say the top 75% of hands.

After another brief stir through the pokerstove, against the top 75% of hands, A5s is ~57.2% to win. This is still -EV if he calls, but what effect does my small amount of fold equity have on the situation?

Event - Chance - New Equity - Expectation
Push/Call/Win - (0.75*0.572)=42.9% - 27.0% - 11.6%
Push/Call/Lose - (0.75*0.428)=32.1% - 0.0% - 0%
Push/Fold/Yay! - 25% - 20.6% - 5.2%

This gives a total expected equity from this play of 16.8%, a mighty 0.1% over what I would have had if I folded.

By the looks of it I stumbled on pretty much the breakeven point here and that if I can get him to lay down even the worst hands with a push it's breakeven at worst but if you know he's calling it's not worth it.

This is one of those situations where the slightest of reads on your opponent can tip it one way or the other.

[MAX]

I agree completely that a read can tip this decision. But I think the default play is to fold and push only when your read tells you that there is significant folding equity-- which your read does not do. Also, if we factor in the fact that bb will call with AA/KK/QQ/AK, the play becomes negative EV (using your ICM #s).
Great post and thanks for showing the %'s. With the assumptions in your post above, and add in a slightly wider range of calling req. for bb, what cards do we need for this push to become +EV? (I don't have the tools to do this)