Frustrating 2+2 thread - large flop overbet

[SmackinYaUp]

hope you guys don't think I'm a traitor because I post over there once in a while too. not nearly as much as over here though.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=&fpart=1&vc=1

So what are your own personal thoughts about the hand? Fold, call, raise?

Is the original poster really interested in having a good discussion or am I just being an asshole?

[mxiu]

This guy is just being an asshole, imo.

[dalecooper]

Interesting thread. Absent specific reads, I'd do what you suggested: fold the hand and wait for a better opportunity. There's no telling specifically what that overbet means unless villain has done it before. His range of hands for that bet is very vague, therefore predicting the EV is a pseudo-science at best. It could be + or -. I don't like making those kinds of guesses when, as you say, there are better spots.

I don't think he just being an asshole. He's a bit dismissive for sure. I think he made a couple of good points but overlooked a couple of good points that you made. A lot of your post was talking about a range of hands (although not directly) which he seemed to deliberately ignore. Even when you weren't saying "This is his range of hands," your argument made an implication about his range of hands. I think the other guy was just disregarding that.

One thing that's really tough about this situation is not just identifying the range of hands, but identifying the percent probability of specific hands within the range. You can say AK is within the range - it definitely is - but how OFTEN does he make this bet with AK? Is he more likely to bet like that with, say, a pair plus an OESD (88 or 87)? We don't know. And if it's a fat finger mistake, we know even less about his range of hands - although you're probably either more or less likely to be ahead in the hand, since now it becomes probable that this was just a simple continuation bet. Frankly, all the vague elements here make me want to just let it go and, again, wait for a better opportunity.

[SmackinYaUp]

exactly my thoughts dale.

and besides, this hand could have been easier if the poster had aces...but pocket tens just arent that great.

it was hard for me to put into words why i think folding the best hand can be a small, not hugee mistake. like yea, it is a huge error because if you had the best hand you could have destacked him. but your chances of having the best hand arent that great. so in the long run, calls like this aren't going to make you much money. folds here arent going to cost much money in the long run because of the % of times your hand is not good.

the times he sucks out on you with AK is worth mentioning because even though in theory its a good thing to be in position to be sucked out on, the 1 in 4 times he sucks out still hurts your win %, making the marginal call slightly less profitable over all. i'm not saying to ever be scared of being sucked out on or ever take it into consideration when you think you have the best hand, but just that in all actuality, that % still means something when you need to compare the % of time you are ahead to the % of time you are behind + % of time you get sucked out vs the odds you are getting to make the call. make sense? if not, i'm willing to give ground and admit to mistakes. consider me a student.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Personally to me it looks like a guy overbetting the pot to make him if he'd call with an 8 horrible odds. A7...

[Miffed22001]

fold wait for a better oppertunity
dont see the need to play post flop here
although i think i saw reraising preflop here mentioned and that would have been my play. the villain sounds as though he plays only in raised pots and is raising some stuff oop so in poisition i think im reraising 99 or higher and AQ/AK. See if he wants to go to the flop knowing he could very well behind. the obvious point is that if he shoves em in then fold as he has a good hand.

[arkana]

You should have just ended it with a YSSCKY

[stuck]

yeah, probably fold.

[LeFou]

it was hard for me to put into words why i think folding the best hand can be a small, not hugee mistake.

I think the cases where this is true are like the ones in that thread: the pot all of a sudden jumps up astronomically -- and you did not cause that jump

Incidentally, I'd have raised that. It's a very suspicious bet.

The question really is What makes a mistake huge? The size of the pot you lose /would have taken? The size of the disparity between your read and What was Really the Case? The cumulative sum of -EV if you make that play every time...?

discuss?

[SmackinYaUp]

You should have just ended it with a YSSCKY

what is YSSCKY?

You Suck Shit Cockboy Kiss mY ass?

Your Scrotum Stinks Can I Kiss You?

I also forgot to tell him to click here

But yea, LeFou, I'd like to discuss that thought some more but I HAVE to go study now. I get to wake up at 7am on a saturday morning on halloween weekend to go take a test...

I'll be back though

[rdqlus]

You Should Seriously Consider Killing Yourself

[dalecooper]

The question really is What makes a mistake huge? The size of the pot you lose /would have taken? The size of the disparity between your read and What was Really the Case? The cumulative sum of -EV if you make that play every time...?

discuss?

To me the only factor, by necessity, is EV. You can't control short-term outcome; you can't control misreads or freak occurrences (like say, a guy bluffs you 99 times in a row and then on hand 100, he gets aces and does the same thing, and you call him with kings). All you are interested in with ANY poker decision is EV, no matter how hypothetical/unknowable that concept becomes when you start trying to sort it out. When talking about small and big mistakes, I think it's a small mistake if your EV drops slightly (say from slightly +EV to slightly -EV, which is where a lot of folds fall). It's a large mistake if your EV drops significantly - which usually means from -EV to really, really -EV (i.e. folding when you are beat vs. calling).

In this case the very idea that folding this could be a large mistake is only possible if 1. you think his range of hands contains mostly hands you are way ahead of (i.e. his raise is a form of bluff, or a misguided value bet with a low pair or Ax); or 2. you think you have a lot of his possible hands dominated, and are a small favorite over many more of his hands, and are dominated by only some of his hands, in such a way that the net EV is largely and not just slightly positive. 1 and 2 are really the same thing, of course, but 1 involves a specific read (that the hero here did not have) and 2 is basically fudging the numbers to allow the hero to do what he obviously wants to do, which is raise. I don't see how either of these positions is in any way supported by the facts of the case, which is why I think it's safer to chalk it up to a "small mistake or small correct play" grey area, fold, and move on.

[Seabass]

Fold, either your abit ahead or way behind. Calling would be a crime and I would not push this.

[DoGGz]

I like how he uses the results to try to own you. Is there really any discussion here? It's a small pot into a monster bet by a donkey at low stakes. He has AA KK more than enough times for this to be a fooling push.

If you voted call then you should quit poker.

[SmackinYaUp]

Thanks guys, I appreciate the feedback. Last thing I would ever want to do is turn weak-tight but sounds like we're all in agreement. Threads like that last one at 2+2 are why I'm glad I made FTR my home.

[Lukie]

That is such a clear fold that it's not even funny...