My Roi went from 25% to -3,6%

[Stripclubjunkie]

My Roi went from 25% to -3,6% !

Poker summary:11s

ROI: 2,3%
ITM:43,8%

Total Tourneys: 32
Total entries:$352,00
Total prizes:$360,00
SNG Profit:$8,00

A screenshot of my spreadsheet: http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/4...vngivet6vv.jpg

A screenshot with my results and comments, mostly when i busted out:
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3...ngivet13oi.jpg

I just cant believe this is due to variance has anyone else tried to drop from 25% to 2,3%. I know my sample size is very small but it really scares me. I use ICM when the blinds gets big otherwise I just play real tight in the beginning and go over to push/fold when the blinds get really big.

If I go into my spreadsheet and change the number of players to 10 instead of 9 at stars my ROI goes up to 13,6% so im thinking about moving over to partypoker.com

Please comment. Tell me its just variance and everything is going to be allright, but I dont think it is.

Stripclubjunkie

[gabe]

your sample size is small, anything can happen.

[Stripclubjunkie]

your sample size is small, anything can happen.

Yes i know that, but dropping from 25% to 2,3% just got me thinking wtf, is this normal variance...

[gabe]

yea, it could drop to -25, sample size is small.

[Stripclubjunkie]

So your advice is that I keep playing them to like 500sng's but then if it drops below -10% then my roll is pretty much gone...

[Robert]

I have to agree about the sample size, dropping a couple of buyins at this point will change your ROI dramaticly. And dropping a couple of buyins happens to everyone _very_ often due to variance. Dont worry, just keep playing your A game!

[gabe]

So your advice is that I keep playing them to like 500sng's but then if it drops below -10% then my roll is pretty much gone...

play lower stakes so your BR will fluctuate less

[aislephive]

I just recently went and dropped three buyins and I was worried, lol. But I've placed ITM 4 of my last 5 and three straight. What stakes do you play btw?

[Stripclubjunkie]

I have to agree about the sample size, dropping a couple of buyins at this point will change your ROI dramaticly. And dropping a couple of buyins happens to everyone _very_ often due to variance. Dont worry, just keep playing your A game!

I never thought of it this way so far I have dropped 6 buyins which ruined my ROI totally so I will play something like 500 and get back...thanks for your comment...

[Stripclubjunkie]

I just recently went and dropped three buyins and I was worried, lol. But I've placed ITM 4 of my last 5 and three straight. What stakes do you play btw?

I play the 11$ sng

[Robert]

I have to agree about the sample size, dropping a couple of buyins at this point will change your ROI dramaticly. And dropping a couple of buyins happens to everyone _very_ often due to variance. Dont worry, just keep playing your A game!

I never thought of it this way so far I have dropped 6 buyins which ruined my ROI totally so I will play something like 500 and get back...thanks for your comment...

For your information I've dropped 3-4 buyins 4-5 times this week - its really frustrating, but thats just the nature of sngs. Just be sure you have a big enough bankroll to get through those swings!

[Stripclubjunkie]

I have to agree about the sample size, dropping a couple of buyins at this point will change your ROI dramaticly. And dropping a couple of buyins happens to everyone _very_ often due to variance. Dont worry, just keep playing your A game!

I never thought of it this way so far I have dropped 6 buyins which ruined my ROI totally so I will play something like 500 and get back...thanks for your comment...

For your information I've dropped 3-4 buyins 4-5 times this week - its really frustrating, but thats just the nature of sngs. Just be sure you have a big enough bankroll to get through those swings!

My current roll is 300$, 30 x buyin is that good enough, or should I add more? Just added 20 x buyins! Then it looks better

[Rockymv]

I recently dropped 21 buyins before winning 45. Keep playing. If you're playing scared, moved down to lower stakes.

[Stripclubjunkie]

Oh no... Lost 2 buyins more ROI -3,7% not the best start Gotta go to the cinema and see a History of Violence, and try again later to night...

They just seem like they are all bitch ass tight rocks, nutpendlers got damn! Is there a new ad out in the states ...

Come play on Pokerstars.com,
!!!Only rocks allowed!!!

[Stripclubjunkie]

I recently dropped 21 buyins before winning 45. Keep playing. If you're playing scared, moved down to lower stakes.

That brings me hope, thx

[Robert]

I have to agree about the sample size, dropping a couple of buyins at this point will change your ROI dramaticly. And dropping a couple of buyins happens to everyone _very_ often due to variance. Dont worry, just keep playing your A game!

I never thought of it this way so far I have dropped 6 buyins which ruined my ROI totally so I will play something like 500 and get back...thanks for your comment...

For your information I've dropped 3-4 buyins 4-5 times this week - its really frustrating, but thats just the nature of sngs. Just be sure you have a big enough bankroll to get through those swings!

My current roll is 300$, 30 x buyin is that good enough, or should I add more? Just added 20 x buyins! Then it looks better

If you are playing regular sngs with 1500 starting chips you should be fine with 30xbuyin at lower stakes. If you are playing turbos then 30xbuyins is also ok, but I would recommend more to prevent you from busting out due to variance. If you play party sngs then you should have 50xbuyins or more.

[donkbee]

Stripclubjunkie, I'm going thru the EXACT same thing as you. I play the 2 table $11s on Stars, I've played around 45 of them since moving up from the $5.50s. I started out pretty well, winning a few and I had a ROI of around 30% for a little while. But recently, over the last 10-15 or so, I haven't been able to win and my ROI has dropped to essentially zero. The frustrating thing is my sample size is too small to say whether or not it's variance or some other reason, and while I keep playing to increase my sample size in order to figure things out, my bankroll keeps dropping. I had over 30 buyins when I started playing them, and now I'm nearing 20 and getting frustrated.

How many do you have to play before you know you just don't have the skills to succeed at a certain level? People keep saying, your sample size is too small, you have to play more to know, but there has to be a limit to this statement because there's only so many losses your bankroll can take. If it IS a downswing due to variance, then I suppose it's unfortunate that it's happening at the start of my move-up to the higher stakes because it's forcing me to move back down. Maybe I do have the skills to win at this level (and I should, considering statements that the $11s are just as fishy as the $5.50s), but the wins aren't there right now and really, it's just a bad idea to keep trying given my bankroll after my recent losses.

Do you think that I should have more than 30 buyins if I am playing the 2 tables as opposed to the 1 tables?

For now, unless I figure something else out, I've dropped back to the $5.50s (actually, I'm giving the $6.50 turbos a try) and I'm going to stay here until I have over $500. THEN I will move back up. I've already gone up and down once, this is my second time moving back down. Moving up at just over 30 buyins obviously isn't working for me.

[Robert]

Stripclubjunkie, I'm going thru the EXACT same thing as you. I play the 2 table $11s on Stars, I've played around 45 of them since moving up from the $5.50s. I started out pretty well, winning a few and I had a ROI of around 30% for a little while. But recently, over the last 10-15 or so, I haven't been able to win and my ROI has dropped to essentially zero. The frustrating thing is my sample size is too small to say whether or not it's variance or some other reason, and while I keep playing to increase my sample size in order to figure things out, my bankroll keeps dropping. I had over 30 buyins when I started playing them, and now I'm nearing 20 and getting frustrated.

How many do you have to play before you know you just don't have the skills to succeed at a certain level? People keep saying, your sample size is too small, you have to play more to know, but there has to be a limit to this statement because there's only so many losses your bankroll can take. If it IS a downswing due to variance, then I suppose it's unfortunate that it's happening at the start of my move-up to the higher stakes because it's forcing me to move back down. Maybe I do have the skills to win at this level (and I should, considering statements that the $11s are just as fishy as the $5.50s), but the wins aren't there right now and really, it's just a bad idea to keep trying given my bankroll after my recent losses.

Do you think that I should have more than 30 buyins if I am playing the 2 tables as opposed to the 1 tables?

For now, unless I figure something else out, I've dropped back to the $5.50s (actually, I'm giving the $6.50 turbos a try) and I'm going to stay here until I have over $500. THEN I will move back up. I've already gone up and down once, this is my second time moving back down. Moving up at just over 30 buyins obviously isn't working for me.

Give the $6.5 turbos a try, its ridicilous how many fish plays them, and with some proper bubble play they are sooooooooo easy to beat!

[Stripclubjunkie]

Stripclubjunkie, I'm going thru the EXACT same thing as you. I play the 2 table $11s on Stars, I've played around 45 of them since moving up from the $5.50s. I started out pretty well, winning a few and I had a ROI of around 30% for a little while. But recently, over the last 10-15 or so, I haven't been able to win and my ROI has dropped to essentially zero. The frustrating thing is my sample size is too small to say whether or not it's variance or some other reason, and while I keep playing to increase my sample size in order to figure things out, my bankroll keeps dropping. I had over 30 buyins when I started playing them, and now I'm nearing 20 and getting frustrated.

How many do you have to play before you know you just don't have the skills to succeed at a certain level? People keep saying, your sample size is too small, you have to play more to know, but there has to be a limit to this statement because there's only so many losses your bankroll can take. If it IS a downswing due to variance, then I suppose it's unfortunate that it's happening at the start of my move-up to the higher stakes because it's forcing me to move back down. Maybe I do have the skills to win at this level (and I should, considering statements that the $11s are just as fishy as the $5.50s), but the wins aren't there right now and really, it's just a bad idea to keep trying given my bankroll after my recent losses.

Do you think that I should have more than 30 buyins if I am playing the 2 tables as opposed to the 1 tables?

For now, unless I figure something else out, I've dropped back to the $5.50s (actually, I'm giving the $6.50 turbos a try) and I'm going to stay here until I have over $500. THEN I will move back up. I've already gone up and down once, this is my second time moving back down. Moving up at just over 30 buyins obviously isn't working for me.

Thx cortiebee nice to know im not in this boat alone...I have just depositet another 20 x buy in so that my roll is 50 x buyin... I took a few hours poker free and went to the cinema, I was soo pissed... Later tonight I'll play some sng's, and just think like "I will forget all my bad calls, bad allins, bad post flop play, If I made any in my loosing streak(no one is perfect) that is, and just play solid good poker"...
What can one do on a loosing streak, because it is sitting in the back of my mind and screams, Looser! You ROI is dropping! but that doesnt get one anywhere, then one will probably lose more? I dont know?....So I will probably start on a new spreadsheet, not deleting the old one, but get a good solid ROI in the new one, and then just paste them in the old one until you got it back up... I know this can be a bad idea if you're a bad sng player(but then one probably already knows), because then you just think, oh I can alway just start a new spreadsheet up! I think I will try this later, to get out of my loosing streak, I already feel alot better, just forget the other bad spreadsheet! Hope it might help

[a500lbgorilla]

To prove that it's a small sample size, what happens to your ROI if you win this next sng? Win the next two? One sng simply means too much in this sample size. You may be leaking, but I wouldnt be too worried.

-'rilla

[Stripclubjunkie]

To prove that it's a small sample size, what happens to your ROI if you win this next sng? Win the next two? One sng simply means too much in this sample size. You may be leaking, but I wouldnt be too worried.

-'rilla

Just tried it, if I win the next ROI: +5,2%
if I win the next two ROI: +13,6%

This has actually made me become more calm, thx rilla

[Scuba Chuck]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

[vqc]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

rofl over 32 SNGs im a lifetime losing player too.

[Stripclubjunkie]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

rofl over 32 SNGs im a lifetime losing player too.

Thx vqc, for having a bit of faith in me, unlike others...cough...Scuba chuck...cough

[vqc]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

rofl over 32 SNGs im a lifetime losing player too.

Thx vqc, for having a bit of faith in me, unlike others...cough...Scuba chuck...cough

he wanst saying u were a bad player, just asking on the possibility.

[Stripclubjunkie]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

rofl over 32 SNGs im a lifetime losing player too.

Thx vqc, for having a bit of faith in me, unlike others...cough...Scuba chuck...cough

he wanst saying u were a bad player, just asking on the possibility.

My bad :P

[donkbee]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

I have considered this and I am wondering how you are supposed to know whether or not this is the case? I mean ... if I'm not a winning player, better finding out sooner than later, right? :P Is it possible to build a $350 bankroll playing $5.50 SnGs while being a terrible player? Is losing your bankroll the only way to discover you aren't a winning player?

Too play "player"s in that last paragraph. No point in thinking about that question though, right? I don't think I'm a losing player, but I do think it's important to consider it. My confidence is just in the shithole right now, that's all.

[zeke999]

I've also had a similar experience when I moved from $5.50s to $11s on Stars. I had several winning months before moving up to $11s at which point my last month's Sng ROI was 63.3; first month after moving it came down to 22.7; September it was 15.3; and finally last month it was a terrible -4.99!

These losing streaks happen and you just have to cope with them. I know its extremely difficult to stay sane when you get your money in the pot as the solid favorite and are being outdrawn constantly for all the money; but it happens.

I seriously began to doubt my playing abilities and whether I was ready for the $11s but after some reviewing and reassuring myself I just had some bad luck last month and things have changed.

Hang in there!

[Scuba Chuck]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

I have considered this and I am wondering how you are supposed to know whether or not this is the case? I mean ... if I'm not a winning player, better finding out sooner than later, right?

At some point you may reach an epiphany that you're style is right. I think all you could know is that your style is a winning style, not a winning style by X%. And there are many winning players out there who have similar styles, but have some small differences in how they play which could make the magnitude of X significantly different/better. For example, all I know is I am a winning player. I've played over 10,000 SNGs. I have withdrawn $X0,000 from poker so far this year. But I think I have a lot more to learn and apply to my play in order for my X to still increase.

1,000 games is not enough to know if you are a winning player. I would think 5,000 is good enough to know. Otherwise, the only other way I know of is to have someone who is a winning player review how you play. He should be able to see whether or not your style of play is a winning style. The reason I made the (gasp) confrontational post is because most people's ego's are just too big to think they are a losing player. "I study, therefore I am a winning player." "I play tight early, and don't take gambool's early, therefore I have a winning style." Just thinking these things without verification is just plain hubris.

:P Is it possible to build a $350 bankroll playing $5.50 SnGs while being a terrible player? Is losing your bankroll the only way to discover you aren't a winning player?

I have tried explaining this stuff before. You could be a winning player, and lose your entire bankroll. You could be a losing player, and make 200 times your bankroll. That's why poker is such an intriguing game to me, and frustrating to most. Our brain has been trained to repeat positive outcomes. There are so many positive outcomes that could come from making incorrect poker decisions. Similarly, you could continuously make correct poker decisions, and continuously be punished. It's a stupid game. Frustrating at times. This is why sample size is such an important issue. I mean, if I flipped a coin, and it landed on heads 5 times in a row, what's the probability that it lands on tails the next time I flip the coin? The probability is still the same. But our mind begins to think, no way it lands on heads a 6th time. See how easy our brain can be fooled?

Too play "player"s in that last paragraph. No point in thinking about that question though, right? I don't think I'm a losing player, but I do think it's important to consider it. My confidence is just in the shithole right now, that's all.

I don't know what you're saying in the first sentence. But you should always be thinking about "am I playing correct?" Lack of confidence will also contribute to further losses. Fear of losing money will also contribute to further losses. That's why I think for all those who don't know yet whether their style is a losing style or not, should be bankrolled to 100 times whatever buyin they are playing until they find out.

Final thought about learning poker. Check your ego at the door. Once you remove the blinders of ego, it is so easy to see all of our own flaws.

[vqc]

all right, I'll bite.

Have you considered that you may not be a winning player?

I have considered this and I am wondering how you are supposed to know whether or not this is the case? I mean ... if I'm not a winning player, better finding out sooner than later, right?

At some point you may reach an epiphany that you're style is right. I think all you could know is that your style is a winning style, not a winning style by X%. And there are many winning players out there who have similar styles, but have some small differences in how they play which could make the magnitude of X significantly different/better. For example, all I know is I am a winning player. I've played over 10,000 SNGs. I have withdrawn $X0,000 from poker so far this year. But I think I have a lot more to learn and apply to my play in order for my X to still increase.

1,000 games is not enough to know if you are a winning player. I would think 5,000 is good enough to know. Otherwise, the only other way I know of is to have someone who is a winning player review how you play. He should be able to see whether or not your style of play is a winning style. The reason I made the (gasp) confrontational post is because most people's ego's are just too big to think they are a losing player. "I study, therefore I am a winning player." "I play tight early, and don't take gambool's early, therefore I have a winning style." Just thinking these things without verification is just plain hubris.

:P Is it possible to build a $350 bankroll playing $5.50 SnGs while being a terrible player? Is losing your bankroll the only way to discover you aren't a winning player?

I have tried explaining this stuff before. You could be a winning player, and lose your entire bankroll. You could be a losing player, and make 200 times your bankroll. That's why poker is such an intriguing game to me, and frustrating to most. Our brain has been trained to repeat positive outcomes. There are so many positive outcomes that could come from making incorrect poker decisions. Similarly, you could continuously make correct poker decisions, and continuously be punished. It's a stupid game. Frustrating at times. This is why sample size is such an important issue. I mean, if I flipped a coin, and it landed on heads 5 times in a row, what's the probability that it lands on tails the next time I flip the coin? The probability is still the same. But our mind begins to think, no way it lands on heads a 6th time. See how easy our brain can be fooled?

Too play "player"s in that last paragraph. No point in thinking about that question though, right? I don't think I'm a losing player, but I do think it's important to consider it. My confidence is just in the shithole right now, that's all.

I don't know what you're saying in the first sentence. But you should always be thinking about "am I playing correct?" Lack of confidence will also contribute to further losses. Fear of losing money will also contribute to further losses. That's why I think for all those who don't know yet whether their style is a losing style or not, should be bankrolled to 100 times whatever buyin they are playing until they find out.

Final thought about learning poker. Check your ego at the door. Once you remove the blinders of ego, it is so easy to see all of our own flaws.

hmm right...
So wait
does having a 20% ROI over 250 SNG smake me a winning player?
I play tight early and dont gambool early.


Good post Scuba.

[donkbee]

Thanks very much for taking the time to write that, Scuba. It really put things into perspective and made me realize a lot of things about poker. I will definitely keep all your points in the back of my mind when I play in the future.

[vqc]

Thanks very much for taking the time to write that, Scuba. It really put things into perspective and made me realize a lot of things about poker. I will definitely keep all your points in the back of my mind when I play in the future.

SEE I told you he wasnt just being mean =D.

[donkbee]

SEE I told you he wasnt just being mean =D.

haha when did i ever say that? or did someone else? whatever man ... i don't care HOW blunt or mean someone is, as long as they tell me something useful. it's so all that matters! (ok no it isn't, but i like to think that's what i think)

[Stripclubjunkie]

SEE I told you he wasnt just being mean =D.

haha when did i ever say that? or did someone else? whatever man ... i don't care HOW blunt or mean someone is, as long as they tell me something useful. it's so all that matters! (ok no it isn't, but i like to think that's what i think)

I might have said that, consider it withdrawn, Scuba

[Stripclubjunkie]

I finally got things turned around with 2nd, 1st two times in a row....my ROI is now +14,5%

And now its +18,8% Neeced a boost to my selfconfidence...