SNG Variance and ROI

[aislephive]

So far here's my month.

Buyin / Winnings
$5.50 / $13.50
$5.50 / $13.50
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $9.00
$5.50 / $22.50
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $9.00
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $13.50
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $13.50
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $0.00
$5.50 / $9.00
----------
$82.50 / $103.50
ROI November = .25 %

I had been doing great and hadn't placed OTM more than two times straight, but I just recently went on a three SNG drought of not making it ITM and it was very frustrating. I know that variance is big in poker, and I don't feel like I've been playing any differently, although I've made a couple of bad calls that I shouldn't have made. I'm looking at my hand histories to see what has led to my exit in every SNG. What's the worst streak you have had playing SNG's?

[Pyroxene]

Being OTM 3 times in a row is not an uncommon occurance even for the very best of players. Take for instance a player that is so amazingly good that they can sustain a 60% ITM ratio over a huge sample. This player is truely god-like to have stats like that. Even a player as amazing as that has a 24% chance of having one or more streaks of 3 or more consecutive losses in his next 8 matches.

If you feel you made mistakes, by all means learn from them. But being OTM 3 times in a row is not, in and of itself, a cause for concern.

[vqc]

ur sample size is way too small

there are days where I played as many SNGs in one day as u have there.

there is really ntohing u can learn from a sample of that size.

[The_Bankroll]

yeah, I've heard of 10-15 long SNG streaks of not finishing ITM. the longest I have on record is 6 in a row, but that is only a 50 game or so sample.

[vqc]

ok we already have another post in the faq that talks about longest OOTM and the like.

so if u can please post there.

[aislephive]

I keep getting sucked out on when I'm HU, I'm missing out on a lot of money here. But yeah, I checked out my HH's and I noticed I made a couple of bad calls and also got careless when I was shortstacked. I just finished second (had 2-1 chip lead and had QQ vs AJ preflop, he hits a flush. I end up pushing on an OESD on the flop and miss) and third the SNG before. Hopefully I can keep it up, I'm down $10 for the day.

Is there as much erratic play in the $10 SNG's? I notice a lot of awful pushes and calls at the 5$ level, and overall a lot of careless play. I lost earlier when I pushed over a raise with AK and he called 1500 more with A4o and hits a four on the river. In the long run it's a good thing, but it's annoying in the short term.

[donkbee]

Is there as much erratic play in the $10 SNG's? I notice a lot of awful pushes and calls at the 5$ level, and overall a lot of careless play. I lost earlier when I pushed over a raise with AK and he called 1500 more with A4o and hits a four on the river. In the long run it's a good thing, but it's annoying in the short term.

This doesn't change at the $11 buyin. Nope. Not at all.

[vqc]

I keep getting sucked out on when I'm HU, I'm missing out on a lot of money here. But yeah, I checked out my HH's and I noticed I made a couple of bad calls and also got careless when I was shortstacked. I just finished second (had 2-1 chip lead and had QQ vs AJ preflop, he hits a flush. I end up pushing on an OESD on the flop and miss) and third the SNG before. Hopefully I can keep it up, I'm down $10 for the day.

Is there as much erratic play in the $10 SNG's? I notice a lot of awful pushes and calls at the 5$ level, and overall a lot of careless play. I lost earlier when I pushed over a raise with AK and he called 1500 more with A4o and hits a four on the river. In the long run it's a good thing, but it's annoying in the short term.

poker is a long term game so thats the only thing u should care about.

[zeke999]

What's the worst streak you have had playing SNG's?

In September I had two 11-game losing streaks where I didn't cash. I believe my longest losing streak without a cash is 15 games. On the plus side I think my best run was cashing 8 out of 11 with (5-1sts, 1-2nd, 2-3rds) with 4 1st place finishes in a row. Steaks will happen especially in small subsets and in my case I'm usually getting the short end of the stick losing several key hands where I'm the big favorite to win for all the chips.

Is there as much erratic play in the $10 SNG's?

Yes there is erratic play in the $11s but I would say it is somewhat less than the $5.50s, noticeably less IMHO.