Hmmmm - what's your play?

[chardrian]

My opp had recently limped/called a shorter stack's all-in w/A8o and then paid off another all-in with AT on a board of 68kA3 after limping and calling a turn bet and then an all-in on the river. The only other hand I had a note on was early on he limped pushed with KK.

My image was as a loose/retard but mostly because I had gotten all of my chips from a fish who I just busted who was dumping them on tilt.

Oh - this is at the very end of the first hour of a 180 man $22 tourney so we're down to like 85 players.

PokerStars Game #3187599012: Tournament #15770496, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/11/28 - 21:40:11 (ET)
Table '15770496 3' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: turttleman (3530 in chips)
Seat 2: hucaberry (5885 in chips)
Seat 3: Mr. Son Kee (8550 in chips)
Seat 4: C^Dubbs21 (2490 in chips)
Seat 5: elpadnet (3320 in chips)
Seat 6: ripjack69 (1850 in chips)
Seat 7: Freeporter (2275 in chips)
Seat 8: chardrian (3080 in chips)
turttleman: posts small blind 50
hucaberry: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to chardrian [Th Tc]
Mr. Son Kee: folds
C^Dubbs21: folds
elpadnet: raises 3220 to 3320 and is all-in
ripjack69: folds
Freeporter: folds
chardrian: ??

[shysti]

Again to me this all boils down to rather or not you feel like gambling, regardless of the reads you may have on this guy, even he can catch a hand.

The 10s are great and you probably are ahead, but anything can happen on the flop. You've made it past the 1st hour, and only 85 of you are left, if he wins, you are gone, if you pass this hand up you have the option of putting on your chips in there on your terms not his.

Just a thought.

edit: My first thought in this would be, ok what type of hands would this guy want to go all in on, and what is he trying to accomplish with this bet, to me personally these are donk bets, and by that I mean that the blinds are relativity low so his all in doesn't get called all he is recouping is the blinds which isn't much, stealing right here isn't worth it. So my thinking is he is hoping someone will make a donk play and called if they have somewhat of a hand, which brings us to your hand.

He may be on AKo or he may have aces. Up to you to find out. I think a lot of these players who do this don't really know how to get the most for their hands, so they figure the best way is to put all their chips out there and hope someone will call them so they can double up the quick and somewhat easy way (I say somewhat because again anything can happen on the board once the cards come).

But it is a lot easier to just put them out there and hope your hand holds up then putting in a raise and get out played. That is why I think these guys do what they do.

[chardrian]

Hmmm again. I really don't boil this down to whether or not I feel like gambling. If it was truly 50/50 I'd fold and wait for a better spot. I really think this is an exercise in reading your opps.

AK and AQ are definite possibilities and I feel are most probable. He has shown a propensity to limp with AT or lower tho so maybe he would limp any Ax hand. Pocket pairs also possible. The most probable being in the 99-JJ range. Your read regarding AA or KK is also possible and one of the toughest ones for me to read because this is not how I play that hand.

I would do pokerstove and am sure that a call would be +EV according to its calculations. But I don't think that would do justice to this hand because some of the hands he might have are more probable than others.

Instead I think the better way to think this hand out is by putting him on a range but adding probabilities as well.

My range: AK-AQ (50%); 99-JJ (maybe even QQ?) (35%); all other PPs and any other misc hands (e.g. AJs, QK) (15%).

When I look at it this way, I think a fold is much easier to find.

[Humphrind]

AK and AQ are definite possibilities and I feel are most probable. He has shown a propensity to limp with AT or lower tho so maybe he would limp any Ax hand. Pocket pairs also possible.

AK and AQ are possible, but you have to realize tht KJ, KQ, QT and others are equally possible to this player.

You are probably ahead, but with most of the hands you are on the slightly high side of a coin flip. When shy says you are in a gamble situation, he is accounting for as much as a 60/40 situation... in your favor. Which still eqates to almost a coin flip.

I agree, it depends on if you want to gamble. Imagine being called by a KJo more than your guess of AK, AQ, or pocket pairs ranging from 99-JJ.

[Sed]

He obviously has 66, call.

- sed

[chardrian]

AK and AQ are possible, but you have to realize tht KJ, KQ, QT and others are equally possible to this player.

You are probably ahead, but with most of the hands you are on the slightly high side of a coin flip. When shy says you are in a gamble situation, he is accounting for as much as a 60/40 situation... in your favor. Which still eqates to almost a coin flip.

I agree, it depends on if you want to gamble. Imagine being called by a KJo more than your guess of AK, AQ, or pocket pairs ranging from 99-JJ.

This is where we are disagreeing. I think both you and shysti are doing more of a poker stove type range. JK, QK, JQ are possible for MOST players but not this one. He has already shown his propensity to limp or simply call raises with A8 and AT. He's not pushing with any non-pocket pair lower than AJs IMO. That's why I'm giving those types of hands (JK, QK, etc.) only a 15% chance whereas you and shysti are making them all equally possible.

Also if you are saying I'm likely 60/40 here than I think it's not "gambling" to call - it's the right move.

Where this hand gets tough for me, is in estimating the chances that he has a PP bigger than mine or a PP lower than mine. Cuz that's really all that matters in this situation. If the chances are good enough that I have him dominated than I should call.

I think it is tight, but it is these tight decisions that often makes or breaks your tourney.

[shysti]

AK and AQ are possible, but you have to realize tht KJ, KQ, QT and others are equally possible to this player.

You are probably ahead, but with most of the hands you are on the slightly high side of a coin flip. When shy says you are in a gamble situation, he is accounting for as much as a 60/40 situation... in your favor. Which still eqates to almost a coin flip.

I agree, it depends on if you want to gamble. Imagine being called by a KJo more than your guess of AK, AQ, or pocket pairs ranging from 99-JJ.

This is where we are disagreeing. I think both you and shysti are doing more of a poker stove type range. JK, QK, JQ are possible for MOST players but not this one. He has already shown his propensity to limp or simply call raises with A8 and AT. He's not pushing with any non-pocket pair lower than AJs IMO. That's why I'm giving those types of hands (JK, QK, etc.) only a 15% chance whereas you and shysti are making them all equally possible.

Also if you are saying I'm likely 60/40 here than I think it's not "gambling" to call - it's the right move.

Where this hand gets tough for me, is in estimating the chances that he has a PP bigger than mine or a PP lower than mine. Cuz that's really all that matters in this situation. If the chances are good enough that I have him dominated than I should call.

I think it is tight, but it is these tight decisions that often makes or breaks your tourney.

Good point! We should have a go at a Sng one day just to see our styles in action.

[Humphrind]

This is where we are disagreeing. I think both you and shysti are doing more of a poker stove type range. JK, QK, JQ are possible for MOST players but not this one.

Your the one with the read. But with your talk, and the lone hand history I've seen, I wouldn't put KJo past this player.

[chardrian]

What talk leads you to beleive JK? My read obviously is not set in stone as it is only based on 3 hands... but it is my read - that's true.

[smoore]

<no groupthink>

So all we know is that he calls and pays off w/weak aces and pushes with big pairs. I have to put him on AQ+ and grudgingly fold the best hand I'll see for 30 minutes I'm not interested in at best a race here at a crucial point in the tournament. Lets face it, TT is only a mid pair.

edit: read the responses about your reads. armed with that information, I may have to weigh the possibility of 88+. Can he push w/22+ here? If so it's a call in my mind. The combination of the times I'm racing and the times I'm way ahead make the decision.

[TanO]

nice hand, and a tricky one. I'd fold and hope he proudly showed QQ - it seems a pointless bet because really with the blinds so low I can only see donkeys, AA and KK calling it. The only time I may call this if is I had just seen the guy lose half his stack or something and thought he might be on tilt. But my gut says he's got QQ and hates playing it, so he pushes and is happy to take the blinds.

One other thing you have to factor in is how loose-aggressive the BB is with his big stack, could calling here give him a tempting call behind you.

Definite fold for me, you have plenty of time and other people blow up way too early in the 180 man mtt's.

[chardrian]

TO - you hit it right on the head.

I reverted to the discussion we had last week where I PokerStoved a whole bunch of hands and basically came to the conclusion that calling with 99 or higher was the right move against a range of your normal donk first in push hands. So I called.... I am still amazed he had KK.

Part of my thinking in the call was that I knew I needed to basically double up twice more to make the money and three more times to FT - I felt like he was giving me too good of an opportunity here to pass up. But the more I think about how he had played, the more I realize he really was just a donk hoping for another donk to call... and unfortunately I was that donk.

p.s. I like your blog - it's good stuff.