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 Originally Posted by mxiu
Tx, Ax even, no boat. I gave me reasons earlier about why the opp doesn't have a boat. You'd be ahead more than 50% of the time in this situation.
??? Can you highlight those reasonS for me?? A boat will ALWAYS value bet here?? I think not.
If I'm the villian here with TQ (hypothetically) and I flop the NUTZ (normally people aren't slowplaying QQ PF), and I see two others drawing with a weak bet, I'm gonna let them try to complete their draws. If I just had a T, then I'm definitely betting the flop harder trying to chase away any drawers... Hmm a min bet on the turn with that 4... darn, hopefully the river will help them... COOL an Ace, that completes a draw for sure!!! Ohh, somebody finally raised, they must like their hand somewhat, why else try to over bet this baby pot like that?? (Personally here I would min raise, or just a little more) But an AI is not a bad move hoping that his completed draw is strong and he pays my Boat off. only losing to another higher boat, which I would pay off every time...
We could argue about this till our fingers are sore, but the fact of the matter is you only have an IDEA that we would win this 50% of the time. Seven different hands beat us (AT, QT, 44 are likely) (AA,QQ, TT, T4 are unlikely) Tx or a bluff is the only type of hand that would likely make this move that we beat.
If I have a strait on a paired board, I want to be able to keep the pot size managable, if it starts getting crazy, like this did at the end, then I'm looking at a 50% chance for my stack, and I'm not gambling without better odds than that.
Another point not mentioned, is that this is played at $50NL which is notoriously "rockier" than $25NL and $100NL with smarter players having "graduated" from $25NL. If this was at $25NL, I'd probably call the river AI, knowing that the fish are more plentiful there.
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