Push here? ($5 SnG)

[nogenius]

Seat 1: im nogenius [JD,AH] ($2,535 in chips)
Seat 4: sirlarry1911 ($2,210 in chips)
Seat 6: Sharkey zz ($1,105 in chips)
Seat 7: el80 ($4,150 in chips)
Seat 8: bspgt ($2,490 in chips)
Seat 9: demoman25 ($2,510 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
bspgt posts blind ($150), demoman25 posts blind ($300).

PRE-FLOP
im nogenius ???

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The table was decently tight, and from a better position this would have been an insta-push.

However, it was from UTG, so what would you do here?

[vqc]

i push here.

[Fortune 500]

I muck it. If you push and the table is as decently tight as ou claim, you're very likely to get called only by a better hand. Position is a major factor as you've got to get through 4 hands, one being a reasonably desperate short stack Who will be getting good odds if you knock out the blinds at about 3-2 (which he can call almost profitably even with unders.

Blinds are high and coming at you... but there are 3 of them that are shorter than you... I think you can wait this one out and wait for a better spot.

It's very very close though.

[aislephive]

You're not terribly desperate just yet, so I don't like this push. With AK or AQ I'd push, but AJ is most likely only going to be called by somebody with a better hand, and with that many players left to act, it's reasonable that somebody could have a better hand behind you.

[zenbitz]

AJ is a monster 6 way. And he certainly could get called by pairs giving him a coin flip.

If the table has been really tight, you could raise like 1/2 your stack and fold to a push if you think you are dominated. I would just push though.

[salsa4ever]

this late in the tourney, AJ is a fukn good hand... you can't wait for AK/AA/KK/QQ to push

yah I push it.

[EthanH1]

As its been said A J, six hand is very stong here but if your not in the money spots yet and i don't know if you are?. Is it not best to raise 4xblinds ruffly half your stack than to risk going out to any two cards that call?, i have been having problems here my self and i hate to push unless 1 st or 2nd sort stack as sorter sacks seem to call with low ranked hands.

so is pushing the better playand why?

[Fortune 500]

I think I'm gonna run some math on this. Film at 11.

[zenbitz]

The problem with the <all in raise is that an agressive, away big stack might push over you causing nausea.

Also, if you get called, AJ is not easy to play out of position against semi-random opponents ($5SNG)

[vqc]

As its been said A J, six hand is very stong here but if your not in the money spots yet and i don't know if you are?. Is it not best to raise 4xblinds ruffly half your stack than to risk going out to any two cards that call?, i have been having problems here my self and i hate to push unless 1 st or 2nd sort stack as sorter sacks seem to call with low ranked hands.

so is pushing the better playand why?

What do u do when u raise half of ur stack and u miss hte flop?
Are u going to fold and leave urself with like 5xBB?

[Fortune 500]

I ran some math on this.

First thing we’ve got to do is figure out what reasonably tight is since that’s our generic read. I’m defining reasonably loosely, because blinds are getting up there.

I think AA-88 is fair. AK and AQ, are probably in there. I’d say the other AJ combinations might think the same way, and I’ll even throw in A-10suited, but think they might muck it off suit. KQ and KJ suited in the mix as well. That’s what I’m running with, since they’re reasonably tight.

There are 1225 hand combinations available. Let’s see how many of them might call.

AA – 3
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 3
TT - 6
99 - 6
88 - 6
AKs - 3
AKo - 9
AQs - 3
AQo - 9
AJs - 2
AJo - 6
ATs -3
KQs - 4
KJs – 3


72 combos that will call, and since they’ve got the same ranges, we can assume that every player has an equal chance of picking them up. That’s about a 5.8 percent chance of a call from each player. Multiplied five ways, it means we’ll get called 29 percent of the time, overall… and have a 71 percent chance of picking up the pot uncontested.

I didn't calculate for splits, and I only assumed one caller.






Now, let's see what happens in each event, given varying callers.



Thus, pushing here is mildly +EV. I was wrong. Fluctuations in hand range of callers will alter this as well, but I think my selection was reasonably tight.

Almost all your value, long term, comes from not getting called.

Gah... That made my head hurt.

[zenbitz]

Nice number crunching. I think you range is still on the tight side, some idjit might call with a really low pair, or A6s, 9Ts.

[Fortune 500]

Nice number crunching. I think you range is still on the tight side, some idjit might call with a really low pair, or A6s, 9Ts.

I go with what I'm given. That's what I call reasonably tight. Some Axs might limp in there too.. which makes it even more +EV. I don't think I'm too far off.

[daluchy]

Good push. AJo is a nice hand in this situation with the size of the blinds compared to everyone's stack.

With <10BB raising isn't that good of an option here even if u arent the short stack.