500k - your move ?

[TanO]

500k GTD on Stars last night, about 1100 people left, just before the second break

With T4050 and blinds at 200/400 in the BB you are dealt Ac3s, its folded around to the button, who has been stealing in LP just to stay alive, he moves allin for 2,400 more, its folded to you.

Give it up or try and take him out ? There is a very loose range of hands he can be pushing here, given previous behaviour. Calling and losing will put me in push/fold territory but one more raise in blinds and antes and I'm there anyway. Calling and winning will give me a large enough stack at the table to operate and get some respect.

Whats your play ?

The result of this hand is available
here

[Sprayed]

I fold. A3o is not a hand that I want to jeopardize my position in the tourney. Even though you are 10bb at the moment, I would wait for a better spot outside of the blinds. You will still have some fold equity with your current stack size if you fold. If you call and lose you will be pushing with around 1600. I would wait and push with you 4k to double up or steal.

[WildBobAA]

I also fold. Even if he has two live cards between an A and a 3, you're still only a 60% favorite at best (even if he has something like an unsuited connector such as 76o you're still only 55% to win). Worse off, with your read, you'd know he'd push with any A (which would have you crushed) or any pair (which would also have you crushed unless its 22).

[TanO]

My gut says that at Worst I'm a 3:2 favourite in this spot, based on a read that the most likely holding he has is KQ, KJ, QJ etc
I do not put him on a very good hand because he has limped some good hands due to fear of getting no action

Do you still fold or do you take the tiny edge at what is a critical point.

[WildBobAA]

I'd fold, it's so much better to be pushing your chips than calling them off. I'd fold and then start looking for steal opportunities.

[mcatdog]

This seems like an easy question. You're a small favorite against his pushing range, and you're getting 1.5:1 odds besides. That's not a tiny edge, that's a substantial edge. If I've seen him pushing a lot, folding would not even cross my mind.

Also, no disrespect to the other posters in this thread, you guys are better / more experienced players than I am, but I think you guys make blind stealing sound a whole lot easier than it is.

[Sprayed]

This seems like an easy question. You're a small favorite against his pushing range, and you're getting 1.5:1 odds besides. That's not a tiny edge, that's a substantial edge. If I've seen him pushing a lot, folding would not even cross my mind.

Also, no disrespect to the other posters in this thread, you guys are better / more experienced players than me, but I think you guys make blind stealing sound a whole lot easier than it is.

When the blinds are at 400/200 and you are pushing 4K you will get more people to fold than with 1600 unless they wake up with a monster. A good example is this hand right here. Would Tano be willing to call with the same read if the guy was pushing 4K? Blind defense IMO is overrated.

[zenbitz]

This is a butt clencher to be sure. If you can steal with impunity, I think this is a fold. If you think that your steals are going to be called >50% of the time (tightness and size of stacks at table), I think you have odds to call. Plus you are not eliminated if you lose.

[chardrian]

My gut says that at Worst I'm a 3:2 favourite in this spot, based on a read that the most likely holding he has is KQ, KJ, QJ etc
I do not put him on a very good hand because he has limped some good hands due to fear of getting no action

Do you still fold or do you take the tiny edge at what is a critical point.

I fold too, if you were sure your gut was right I would call here. But I think your gut is often wrong here. Your opp could easily have an A better kicker or any pocket pair above 33.

Although I also start to get tense when my stack starts approaching the 10xBB area, I also have realized that even if you lose your blinds two orbits in a row you still will have enough to make a powerful push and wait until you get a decent hand.

A3 sucks. AT I call.

[WildBobAA]

Even donkeys pick up hands.

[konahead]

fold - A3o sucks and you still have fold equity with your stack at the next blind level. I'd want at least a 9 kicker to call there, preferably suited.

[mcatdog]

Even donkeys pick up hands.

But he's probably pushing a lot of times even when he doesn't have one. I don't understand why we're so terrified of the relatively few hands that crush us, rather than considering the enormous range of hands that he's likely pushing with and whether or not we have the pot odds to call against that range. Isn't that the right way to go about deciding whether to call this player? A3o is almost exactly even money against the top 50 percent of hands. His range has to go all the way down to top 15 percent or top 20 percent before we're getting marginal pot odds to call him. Based on TanO's read, I think that's not a realistic range.

I'm not even sure that pushing a lot of hands from the button with 6 big blinds makes the guy a donkey. If the blinds look like tight players, I'd be doing the same thing.

[WildBobAA]

In tournaments, a lot of times its best to fold even when you're getting the odds to call so you can be the aggressor.

[ImMrFish]

In tournaments, a lot of times its best to fold even when you're getting the odds to call so you can be the aggressor.

Words to live by.

[Chicago_Kid]

In tournaments, a lot of times its best to fold even when you're getting the odds to call so you can be the aggressor.

Words to live by.

I like that too.

[ProZachNation]

Id fold to much at stake for not to much gain, you can pick a better spot to mkae a stand after that break.

[TanO]

In tournaments, a lot of times its best to fold even when you're getting the odds to call so you can be the aggressor.

I agree with your statement but I think this sentence is incomplete - It should read ".... so you can be the aggressor on subsequent streets" Since there are no players behind me and no further rounds of betting if I call, it is less relevant in this situation.

It's no insta-call for me, and often I will lay it down if the guy has been playing tight and not stealing previously. I used to be a lot weaker in these situations and fold easily. I thought more of you would think this was more complicated than a quick fold.