|
|
I like this play. It's a 20+2, you can't just play safe and assume you'll be able to outplay the field in the later rounds. This guy sounds like he's as likely to call you with AA as he is to call you with 22. You own 7 pairs and you're owned by 5 pairs. You're a favorite to any unpaired hand. Regardless of the results you are right to reraise here, when his 3xBB raise is %15 of your stack, there's only one right way to reraise, all-in.
When poker players refer to coinflips, they are usually reffering to 55/45 situations. 99 will beat AKo about %55 of the time, TJs is more like 50/50 (I'm doing this from memory forgive me if I'm off by %1). The AK is the one that'll call your re-raise. 55/45 dosn't seem much different from 50/50 but consider this scenario: you're involved in 3 major races for big pots in a tournament, if you win all 3 you will win the tournament. Case 1: you have AKo you're opponent has a big pair (not AA or KK) probability of winning all 3 races = 0.45 x 0.45 x 0.45 = 0.091125. Case 2: you have the pair, your opponent has AKo, probability of winning all 3 races = 0.55 x 0.55 x 0.55 = 0.166375. That little %5 above 50/50 almost doubles your chances of winning the tournament. This is the law of large numbers and it is the reason that the house always wins in the long run in roulette craps etc. Being suited adds about %2.5 to a hand in a race. 99 is still at least 52/48 over AKs.
This guy's a loose player with a big stack and 150 of his chips already in the pot, he'll call you with smaller pairs and a bunch of other hands. If you win 2 races against this guy you'll have a huge stack and you won't have to worry about this bully anymore and you can start to lean on the short stacks and go for the win.
Phil Helmuth Jr. won the 1989 WSOP by re-raising AI with 99, Johnny Chan called him with A7s because he already had alot of his chips in and was getting some pot odds to make a call. Johnny Chan said after the tounament, "Sometimes you have to gamble". I know this is 20+2 SNG and not the WSOP but the concept is the same, make your opponent gamble with the worst hand.
I always try to be the player with the pair in a race, I'm not afraid of the AK, I only fear the bigger pair. Early in a SNG I'll call HU for All my chips with AA,KK,QQ and sometimes JJ. I'll re-raise big HU with KK,QQ,JJ,TT and sometimes 99 (AA is the only hand i will trap with by mini-raising). I'll re-raise with weaker hands than I'll call with because my opponent may be priced into calling with weaker hands (77 hoping I have AK, a hand I don't like to push with early). Reraising can also win me the pot without a flop. I'll only make the dreaded 3rd raise with AA or KK. There's alot of other factors like position and my table image and my notes on my opponent, but I've gotten pretty good at avoiding being the player with the smaller pair early in a SNG.
|
20+2. 99 push over.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Aplomado
