ITM in Party 40k Gnty

[JeffreyGB]

Just under 80 left out of 2307. Felt I had good odds for the preflop call. Thoughts?

#Game No : 3187263340
***** Hand History for Game 3187263340 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:18204015 Level:15 Blinds (1500/3000) - Monday, December 12, 02:06:48 EDT 2005
Table $40K Guaranteed(538420) Table #8 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: JGB146PP ( $19818 )
Seat 4: buckethead43 ( $48875 )
Seat 5: MonkeyOnTilt ( $44420 )
Seat 6: eugene7 ( $17946 )
Seat 7: smooth4693 ( $1535 )
Seat 8: cubbies_1908 ( $8866 )
Seat 9: killer003 ( $30816 )
Seat 10: jmm21264 ( $35415 )
Seat 3: gwglet ( $32912 )
Trny:18204015 Level:15
Blinds (1500/3000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JGB146PP [ 4d Kd ]
jmm21264: gg fuzzy
JGB146PP: gg
buckethead43 folds.
MonkeyOnTilt folds.
MonkeyOnTilt: gg
eugene7 calls [3000].
smooth4693 is all-In [1535]
cubbies_1908 folds.
killer003 folds.
jmm21264 folds.
JGB146PP calls [1500].
gwglet checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ah, Jh, Qc ]
JGB146PP checks.
gwglet checks.
eugene7 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
JGB146PP checks.
gwglet checks.
eugene7 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Ts ]
JGB146PP bets [3000].
gwglet folds.
eugene7 is all-In [14946]
JGB146PP ???

[gabe]

looks like you have to fold to his boat, unless you have a read

[SteveO]

Call and chop.

There's almost no way I put him on boat. He smooth called pre-flop. He would have raised with something like JJ, AJ, AQ 1010 etc. Just about any hand that gives him the boat woud normally raise pre-flop so I think the chance of boat is pretty small. However, you have plenty of chips and can't afford to be wrong.

[Sprayed]

Call and chop.

There's almost no way I put him on boat. He smooth called pre-flop. He would have raised with something like JJ, AJ, AQ 1010 etc. Just about any hand that gives him the boat woud normally raise pre-flop so I think the chance of boat is pretty small. However, you have plenty of chips and can't afford to be wrong.

I agree. He obviously doesn't want you to call with the all in. However, he is risking his tourney life to push you out. What does that mean?

[zenbitz]

I think this is a chop as well. I cannot see limping QQ/JJ/TT there, AJ/AQ raise pf, AT and AA are most likely and there are 2 As out. Doesn't a K push here for the hell of it?

I fold pre-flop. You gots pot odds, but no folding equity, out of position, and a shallow stack.

[JeffreyGB]

What hands do you put villian on based on his play? What range is calling preflop? How do I compare against that range?

[JeffreyGB]

One play I'm thinking might work well is a check-call. I'm not sure if I'm being results oriented or not in that play, but here's what I'm thinking:

With that limp, what hands can we reasonably put him on?
AK-AT seems loose, but reasonable given that he wants to get shorty out. AA-TT also possible. As are a number of lower pocket pairs and (depending how loose we grant) KQ, KJ. So assuming his range is any hand mentioned above and he'd make this play with any of those hands:
AK/KQ/KJ/KK split with me. I call and it's all good. I don't need the pot to be any bigger because it's a split.
AQ-AT/AA/QQ/JJ/TT beat the crap out of me. If I'm calling, I want the smallest pot possible against them, obviously. Checking accomplishes this.
So we have 22-99 that could make this play (including preflop) that I'm beating. I think this is the most unlikely range in the bunch. Depending on how loose we want to make him, we could throw KT in with the splits and QJ/QT/JT in with the hands I beat. Even still, it's hard to think I'm ahead against many hands he's playing here. I think check/call is a much better play than raise/call. Thoughts?

[SteveO]

I prefer check call but not because of his hand range. And the "call" part becomes difficult because you don't know if you are calling a normal bet or an AI bet. Would you check-call his AI?

By betting smallish like that you are giving him an opportunity to steal the pot from you with an AI. So the river bet is usually a little protection. It would take a real nut to bluff AI ont that board if you had checked first.

My thinking is that a good player is not going to move AI in that positionwith a FH. A normal re-raise is much more likely to get paid off if he had the boat.

You didn't make the call did you and now you want to hear that it was a good fold? It was not a bad fold if that's what you did.

If we assume that the check-call would result in him not moving in but just betting pot I think it is a better line under the circumstances. But it is impossible to ever know that.

When I check-call the river, I always ask myself whether I intend to call off a lot of chips before checking otherwise you are opening yourself up to a lot of steals by aggressive opponents. If the answer is no, then I will bet out like you did to hopefully scare him a little and it usually acts as a defensive bet.

[gabe]

oops, for someone reason i thought the guy raised preflop

[JeffreyGB]

oops, for someone reason i thought the guy raised preflop

So how does that affect your play, gabefish? Are you playing it like I did and calling? Check-calling the river? Playing it like I did and folding? Why for each?

[konahead]

the dude pushed w his king. I call that all day long. No way they bet like that w a boat - its a chop. CALL

[zenbitz]

Actually, I cannot read that PF call at all.
He only has 6 BB! He should NOT be calling ever, unless he is setting a trap with a high pair.

You occasionally see a fishy short stack limp all over the place praying to hit a flop... but if this is the first limp I've seen in a while, I fold my stupid K4s!

I think check-call here is good... but I dunno if I call the all-in. Note that as played, his river raise all-in COULD be for value, since it's only ~pot sized.

[JeffreyGB]

Actually, I cannot read that PF call at all.
He only has 6 BB! He should NOT be calling ever, unless he is setting a trap with a high pair.

Considering this, you'd figure if he's reasonable, he has a big pair right? Meaning that he's more than likely to have a boat here. Check-call sounds good in that situation.

[johnny_fish]

I think any reasonable player bets the flop with set/2 pair. His preflop limp is strange though. I fold this (probably weak).

[Aquinas]

This is a tough one. I'd wanna know if this person has been limping hands before. If no, it's a clear fold. If he has been limping small pairs acerag etc, or is an aggressive player, I'd probably call.
Btw I don't like the river raise unless he calls too much AND has been limping hands before. Check and hope he bluffs at the pot.
Btw2 u don't have pot odds to look for a good hand here--u have a maximum win of 18k and it is costing u 1.5k to call. This means u'd have to trust a highcard paired king w ur kicker. Hence I fold this pf.

[JeffreyGB]

For the record, he had AQ for the nut boat. I've concluded that my thoughts on checking the river are not results oriented - there are very few hands calling that don't either split or beat you.

[K2 the ArmA]

If he has a boat there and I call, I call him a fish and leave.

[Sprayed]

Just some food for thought. For those of you who know NSXT2, I've heard him talk about this type of situation before. When someone has the nuts and knows they can't be beat they may make an all in on the river knowing that if there is another big hand on the board, like your str8, they may get you to call. It's not necessarily a fish play. Yea you want to extract as many chips as you can but if he can get you to think that it's a bluff, like a fish, and call his all in he stands better than making a small bet and taking a few extra chips.

[Sprayed]

One other thing. He also says try not to get all of your money in on a hand that you think could be beat after all the cards are out. I think that your read on this guy has to be pretty good in order to call his all in and not put him on the boat. I agree with eveyone else that I wouldn't have put him on the boat due to his call pre-flop. I would have lost my ass.

[zenbitz]

Wow he played that wierd.
o open limps AQ utg (huh? I hope it was at least s00ted)
o Flops Top two pair on a 2-flush, 3-broadway board and checks closing the betting.
o Hits 2nd nuts on the turn - OK, from here it makes sense.

The only thing I can figure out is that he looks down at his AQ suited and M=4ish and decided that
a) he was taking it to the felt no matter how the cards fell
b) he would only accept a double up, not blinds

I thought he might have a boat - but QQ or AA in the hole, or KK/KQ for a split.