Folding AA

[exsentrik]

So Im playing a sit and go and theres 3 of us left. Top three pay out. All three of us have 5000ish in chips. I am dealt AA and think about goin all in, when The button pushes and so does the small blind. Now I know I have the best hand right now but someone could suck out on me and I could end up in third rather than second. After 30 secs I fold. Yes I know that was hard as hell. They turn over there cards and the button has AK suited and small blind has pocket 99’s. Button wins with pair of kings.

I went on to win the tournament after about 20minutes but what do you think of my call? In hind sight it was a good call cause i won the tournemnt, What are your views

[chardrian]

My views:
1) This belongs in the SNG forum
2) Folding AA with 3 left and the two other players basically handing you the win on the platter is retarded.
3) In hindsight it was still a horrible fold - your AA would've won as it should have and you would have won the tourney right there.
4) The only time I would ever (and I mean ever) think of folding AA preflop is if two bigger stacks were pushing ahead of me and I was right on the bubble of a satellite.

[Hop_Gazza]

One of the rare times folding gives you a guaranteed profit [except if they split the pot!].

[Sprayed]

My views:
1) This belongs in the SNG forum
2) Folding AA with 3 left and the two other players basically handing you the win on the platter is retarded.
3) In hindsight it was still a horrible fold - your AA would've won as it should have and you would have won the tourney right there.
4) The only time I would ever (and I mean ever) think of folding AA preflop is if two bigger stacks were pushing ahead of me and I was right on the bubble of a satellite.

Word.

[baudib]

Don't be afraid of multiple pushers with AA.

In this situation, it's extremely likely that one is down 4-1 and the other 15-1, pretty much as it played out here.

[Hop_Gazza]

Interestingly putting these hands in the Poker Hand simulator and running 1,000,000 simulations produces
AA 69%
AKs 12%
99 19%

So assuming $10/1 payounts of $50 / $30 / $20
69% of $50 = $34 + 31% of $20 = $5.6 or return $39.6

Assuming there is a 50/50 chance of you taking first place if you fold the AA then
50% of $50 = $25 plus 50% of $30 = $15 = $40.

If you feel your are better than 50/50 this would imply folding the AA has the margin!

So weak players should go all in - solid should fold. [I will now put on my tin hat and await Armaggedon!]

[Sprayed]

Interestingly putting these hands in the Poker Hand simulator and running 1,000,000 simulations produces
AA 69%
AKs 12%
99 19%

So assuming $10/1 payounts of $50 / $30 / $20
69% of $50 = $34 + 31% of $20 = $5.6 or return $39.6

Assuming there is a 50/50 chance of you taking first place if you fold the AA then
50% of $50 = $25 plus 50% of $30 = $15 = $40.

If you feel your are better than 50/50 this would imply folding the AA has the margin!

So weak players should go all in - solid should fold. [I will now put on my tin hat and await Armaggedon!]

I agree that if you leave it to ICM you should fold. But, I think that in the heat of battle I would make this play. I guess I'm a weak player. But I already knew that.

[chardrian]

Interestingly putting these hands in the Poker Hand simulator and running 1,000,000 simulations produces
AA 69%
AKs 12%
99 19%

So assuming $10/1 payounts of $50 / $30 / $20
69% of $50 = $34 + 31% of $20 = $5.6 or return $39.6

Assuming there is a 50/50 chance of you taking first place if you fold the AA then
50% of $50 = $25 plus 50% of $30 = $15 = $40.

If you feel your are better than 50/50 this would imply folding the AA has the margin!

So weak players should go all in - solid should fold. [I will now put on my tin hat and await Armaggedon!]

The reason you are wrong is bolded and underlined. After folding with even stacks, you are now a 2-1 dog stack wise - there is no way you can give yourself 50/50 odds to win first now. All you have done is guarantee yourself 2nd because you didn't want to risk getting sucked out and taking third. IMO that's weak and definitely -EV.

[Sprayed]

Interestingly putting these hands in the Poker Hand simulator and running 1,000,000 simulations produces
AA 69%
AKs 12%
99 19%

So assuming $10/1 payounts of $50 / $30 / $20
69% of $50 = $34 + 31% of $20 = $5.6 or return $39.6

Assuming there is a 50/50 chance of you taking first place if you fold the AA then
50% of $50 = $25 plus 50% of $30 = $15 = $40.

If you feel your are better than 50/50 this would imply folding the AA has the margin!

So weak players should go all in - solid should fold. [I will now put on my tin hat and await Armaggedon!]

The reason you are wrong is bolded and underlined. After folding with even stacks, you are now a 2-1 dog stack wise - there is no way you can give yourself 50/50 odds to win first now. All you have done is guarantee yourself 2nd because you didn't want to risk getting sucked out and taking third. IMO that's weak and definitely -EV.

So I'm not weak then, right? Or wait a minute, maybe I am because I didn't see what Chard saw. Oh well, I will still call with AA all day long. That's all I need to know. Forget about all that math crap.

[TanO]

What Chard said

[mcatdog]

I agree that if you leave it to ICM you should fold. But, I think that in the heat of battle I would make this play. I guess I'm a weak player. Shocked But I already knew that. Embarassed

Don't worry, you're not a weak player because you don't fold aces. His model is wrong because if you fold, the other player has a 2-1 chip lead against you when heads-up play starts. There's no way you'll beat him half the time.

I think a500lbgorilla said it best, if you ever fold aces preflop, you are probably a losing player.

PS: TanO, I saw that you were kicking butt in the 25K rebuy on Stars yesterday. Why the hell haven't you posted it in the winner's circle yet? Great job, man!

[gabe]

if top two spots pay the same, then fold (like in a satellite).

folding here when first is top heavy is baaaaaaad.

[Sprayed]

I was starting to doubt myself and everything that I have learned so far. Pheeewww!

[KY_Ace]

Gabe makes an excellent point, only way you can fold is 1st and 2nd get the same and 3rd gets zilch.

[KY_Ace]

So Im playing a sit and go and theres 3 of us left. Top three pay out. All three of us have 5000ish in chips. I am dealt AA and think about goin all in, when The button pushes and so does the small blind. Now I know I have the best hand right now but someone could suck out on me and I could end up in third rather than second. After 30 secs I fold. Yes I know that was hard as hell. They turn over there cards and the button has AK suited and small blind has pocket 99’s. Button wins with pair of kings.

I went on to win the tournament after about 20minutes but what do you think of my call? In hind sight it was a good call cause i won the tournemnt, What are your views

5000ish????? whether you're in 1st,2nd or 3rd should influence your decision no-matter how small the margin. If you're in first by a small margin, the only way you can possible come 3rd is if the 3rd place stack wins or splits the pot with the 2nd place stack, and they both beat you. Possible, but not bloody likely with AA.

[bearcats05]

ok think of it this way if you call you are going to get first place most of the time and 2nd place most of the time that you dont get first....

if you fold you are in second place against a big stack headsup...


and if you are really that worried about the difference between 2nd and 3rd you are probably playing above your bankroll