The Tricky Satellite Hand

[TanO]

This is from the $3 rebuy satellite to the 500K GTD on Stars
10 Players remain, 10th will get $6 back, 1-9 get a seat
All players remaining on the other table have over 110k and both stables are playing tight, not many flops seen and when they have been they've been checked down by the big stacks mostly

This happens -

*********** # 312 **************
PokerStars Game #3351212803: Tournament #16572927, Hold'em No Limit - Level
XVI (4000/8000) - 2005/12/16 - 18:17:24 (ET)
Table '16572927 18' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: rljay (55990 in chips)
Seat 4: Snixen (80855 in chips)
Seat 5: toto295 (127224 in chips)
Seat 8: TanOrpheus (72742 in chips)
Seat 9: ollynorth (109680 in chips)
rljay: posts the ante 400
Snixen: posts the ante 400
toto295: posts the ante 400
TanOrpheus: posts the ante 400
ollynorth: posts the ante 400
toto295: posts small blind 4000
TanOrpheus: posts big blind 8000

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TanOrpheus [Jh Ad]
ollynorth: folds
rljay: raises 47590 to 55590 and is all-in
Snixen: folds
toto295: folds
TanOrpheus: ????


TanOrpheus: calls 47590
*** FLOP *** [Qs Jc 9h]
*** TURN *** [Qs Jc 9h] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [Qs Jc 9h Js] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TanOrpheus: shows [Jh Ad] (three of a kind, Jacks)
rljay: shows [4c 4d] (two pair, Jacks and Fours)
TanOrpheus collected 117180 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 117180 | Rake 0
Board [Qs Jc 9h Js 2h]
Seat 2: rljay showed [4c 4d] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fours
Seat 4: Snixen (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: toto295 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: TanOrpheus (big blind) showed [Jh Ad] and won (117180) with three of
a kind, Jacks
Seat 9: ollynorth folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[zenbitz]

At first I thought you had a clear fold... but since if he steals the blinds YOU will be in 10th place, I think you have a marginal call here.

It's a $3 r/a... I wouldn't rule out some bigger stacks on the other table getting frisky out of boredom.

Remember, you only need 1 chip to place 9th

[tandar]

i actually voted fold, but the more i think about it, i think calling would be the better option, you have your opponent covered so if you lose your not out and there is a good chance your opponent is trying to steal the blinds as everyone tends to play tighter when on the bubble. If you fold you are still the low stack and problaly won't get to many more hands like A,J to try and double up on

[JeffreyGB]

To me it depends on how active Villian has been. If he's been making a lot of plays, I call. If not, I fold. The more he's been playing, the more likely I think it is that you have him beat/dominated. Less play = more likely coinflip/he dominates you.

[TanO]

He's been pretty tight, but I'm guessing he needs the chips so will push any 2 paint and any pair over 77. If I had slightly more chips I think fold is the right decision, but I don't like where I'm at so I get into a "its him or me" mentality and call. It worked out ok, but I still can't decide if its good to make the call or not for future Ref.

[Rondavu]

I fold this reluctantly. AJ is doggy.

[Sprayed]

As you said it's situational. I think that you needed to gamble. Very difficult decision with AJo though. I would be thinking that he is in desperation mode with his short stack and fearing the blinds coming up on him which he will lose some fold equity. Congrats!

[drmcboy]

I probably fold AQ here as well, and pairs below JJ... TT I'd look at a while. There is no value in getting in a flip here IMO - you need to be fairly sure you're dominating with a small chance of flip before you get involved. Even if he showed you 35 would you really want to run against it? I don't see why.

Much easier to steal chips. As you say play in these sats is usually very tight at the end, take advantage. You can find a flip type spot in a orbit or two if need be, hopefully with some fold equity.

[Easy17]

i fold cause i simply dont want that much action preflop with AJo. Would it be nice to have an extra 55k in chips, sure. Do i have to have it at this point, certainly not.

Stack size is all important, if i had him covered by alot more than you do, i call. If i had alot less chips than you did, i call.

just my 2cp.