how bad is a baaaaad run?

[The_Bankroll]

I've been playing a lot more MTTs lately, and got off to a good start, making 2 final tables for a 2nd and 5th, but now I am on a horrible downswing that's eaten away nearly 1/3 of my bankroll. I'm just wondering how long is a bad streak just bad luck and variance, and at what point do you start saying "maybe i'm not as good as I though I was?" I'm currently at 23 MTTs without a single ITM, most of them being the Stars 180s. has anyone who plays a lot of MTTs had similar or even worse bad runs.

[Andy Holt]

You should always be looking to plug leaks regardless of how you're running.

Most people wait until hard times to look for leaks, it's human nature.

Just focus on everything except the way you're running and it'll get better (at least subconsciously).

[drmcboy]

It sounds like you're above your BR some. 23 OTM should not be cutting it by 1/3 – closer to 1/5 or so going by 100 buyins. If all you are playing is MTTs, you should absolutely use 100 as a guideline, and don’t fudge much. Playing above the BR makes every downswing apocalyptic.

Are you making bad plays? Constantly saying to yourself "I knew he had the flush"? If yes, plug the gap, post the hands, whatever.

With no other info, 23 OTM doesn’t worry me much. People go OTM 20+ in SNGs. If you can’t find a pattern of bad play, it could certainly be variance.

[digitaldoc]

Anytime you think you game is great and there is nothing you need to improve, that's the first leak that needs to be fixed.

23 OTM's is not unheard off, especially when you're getting used to a new MTT that you're not used to playing. Look for ways to stop leaking chips and focus on how others are playing in this level of tournament. Then determine the best way to get their chips. (Is it trapping plays or might it be straight betting with great hands that will get called by TPTK?)

Keep looking at hand histories and evaluate if you would play your hands differently. Write down your lessons learned and re-read them before you play each night.

Things will turn around.

[lambchopdc]

I've been playing a lot more MTTs lately, and got off to a good start, making 2 final tables for a 2nd and 5th, but now I am on a horrible downswing that's eaten away nearly 1/3 of my bankroll. I'm just wondering how long is a bad streak just bad luck and variance, and at what point do you start saying "maybe i'm not as good as I though I was?" I'm currently at 23 MTTs without a single ITM, most of them being the Stars 180s. has anyone who plays a lot of MTTs had similar or even worse bad runs.

I've had 3 20+ out of the money downswings this week. My ITM% is about 20% for MTTs, which means i can expect to not cash 80 out of 100 of my MTTs, so going 20 straight is not that bad IMO. Especially when 1 first place in the Stars 180s is equal to a +48 Buyin swing.