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Pots odds vs. Stack size. What is more important?

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  1. #1

    Default Pots odds vs. Stack size. What is more important?

    I had the guy outstacked but, I believe him. I figure the flush draw is about 50% to hit and with 2:1 pot odds I should call. The only reason I'm not sure is the fact that I could kind of use those 600 chips later (but I could have his...) How do you play it? Please help.

    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

    UTG (t475)
    UTG+1 (t720)
    MP1 (t950)
    MP2 (t1600)
    Hero (t1665)
    Button (t865)
    SB (t930)
    BB (t795)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, MP1 calls t50, 1 fold, Hero raises to t200, 2 folds, BB calls t150, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

    Flop: (t525) 9, 8, K (2 players)
    Hero calls t595.
  2. #2
    I think you're calling with the worst hand here, so I can't recommend it.
  3. #3
    It's a close decision I'd say. The flush draw isn't 50% though: more like 2:1 against. If you were sure of 11 outs (9 clubs + 2 Queens) it would be a call getting almost 2:1 pot odds and still having a healthy stack if you lose. Trouble is, in the nightmare scenario he has the club Ace and a K. Sometimes he'll have a flush already so a Q isn't a sure out (and two of your flush outs have gone).

    Ok, I'm folding. But I've made worse calls.

    And just to nitpick, I prefer a 250 raise after two limpers.
  4. #4
    tough one. In most cases you are probably not that far behind, but rarely that far ahead. Although there are cases where you'll be calling with best hand here. Can't give him credit for the flush or for having AK/KK.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  5. #5
    I thnk this is an insta-call. Short stack is pushing preflop with AK (including Ac), AA, KK. probably 99 88 as well, and probably folding KX.

    You are behind some hands, but have ~8 outs against everything but AA with Ac.

    He probably has AcX - maybe Ax8/9. maybe KQ (but no clubs). You are not really a favorite against JT with 1 club either.... but that's not alot of hands.
  6. #6
    I appreciate the replies. Thank you guys.
    For anyone who wants to know he did have the K, but no clubs. I hit my Q on the river to win with trips. I wasn't even thinking of the Q's as outs, I was just thinking out the flush draw.
  7. #7
    STIdrivr's Avatar
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    what made you say you think the flush comes 50% of the time?
  8. #8

    Default Flush draw 50%

    [edit: I'm dumb OBVIOUSLY I had clubs... post has been changed to reflect that]
    Sorry I though this thread had died.
    I flopped the flush draw Q-clubs in my hand, three on the flop.
    I have two cards to come.
    9 clubs left in the deck 2.2% to hit one on EACH street.
    9*2.2=19.8%
    19.8% * 2 = 39.6 % to hit on either street.

    I'm actually WAY off with the 50%. Still I'm getting 2:1 on a 2:3 shot. What my real question was is: Pot odds vs. stack size.
    Are the good pot odds worth the call with the chance to take someone out and build my stack? Even if I lose I'm not crippled. Or towards the end does stack size win every time? Let go of all draws (unless it's for just 10% of your stack).

    Here's the twodimes.net calculation

    Hero: qs qc
    Villan: Ad kh
    Board: 9c 8c kc
    Qs Qc 434 43.84 556 56.16 0 0.00 0.438
    Ad Kh 556 56.16 434 43.84 0 0.00 0.562

    I didn't respond to the "the flush draw is 2:1 against" because I assumed he thought it was a river draw. But I had the turn and river.
  9. #9
    I would call. With such a short stack there is a large range of hands he may be pushing this flop with .
    iwould not be surprised to see AcXo


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