Interesting situation for discussion from 22....

[MAX]

If golfstud gets ai and loses I get third. If he folds, we are both ai on the next hand, but he will get 3rd if we both lose that. I didn't hesitate to call, but am curious about your opinions (afterall I will still be ai in bb next hand even if I win, but may then outstack golfstud). Does anyone fold here? And what is the minimum I need to play this hand?

400/800 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 18623510) - Mon Dec 26 19:52:22 EST 2005
Table Table 66952 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: GOLFSTUD (545)
Seat 2: HERO(105)
Seat 4: ManwithdAxe (4980)
Seat 9: tonybachman (2370)
tonybachman posts small blind (200)
GOLFSTUD posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ac, As ]
HERO (105)
HERO is all-In.

Before you ask how I wound up w/105 chips.....

400/800 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 18623510) - Mon Dec 26 19:51:23 EST 2005
Table Table 66952 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: GOLFSTUD (1945)
Seat 2: HERO (1960)
Seat 4: ManwithdAxe (1925)
Seat 9: tonybachman (2170)
GOLFSTUD posts small blind (200)
HERO posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ac, Jh ]
ManwithdAxe raises (1925) to 1925
ManwithdAxe is all-In.
tonybachman folds.
GOLFSTUD folds.
HERO calls (1525)
Creating Main Pot with $4050 with ManwithdAxe
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ts, 5d, 8d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 6d ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 4050 |
Board: [ Ts 5d 8d 4s 6d ]
GOLFSTUD balance 1745, lost 200 (folded)
HERO balance 35, lost 1925 [ Ac Jh ] [ high card ace -- Ac,Jh,Ts,8d,6d ]
ManwithdAxe balance 4050, bet 1925, collected 4050, net +2125 [ 4c Ad ] [ a pair of fours -- Ad,Ts,8d,4c,4s ]
tonybachman balance 2170, didn't bet (folded)

[stak14]

Call.

You're not dead yet by any means, I've made bigger comebacks then that to win tournaments. I'm sure many people on this site have, it sounds cliched and all that but "never give up." You have to call.

[drmcboy]

of course you don't fold? I wish you hadn't even typed that.

And what is the minimum I need to play this hand?

This is interesting.

You play any pair, any A, and any two paints. For sure. Any chance you have the best hand or a 33% ish chance or better to win, pot odds alone dictate a call.

After that, hmm. If tony bach is a good player, he will play almost any two from the SB looking to take you both out at a massive price. Some tighties might fold 9Ts or K5 ish here.

So if we assume you're going to run into any two cards twice, seems to me you can play just about any two. I might fold total trash like 23 just because you don't want to be 80/20'd by a low pp, but mostly I'm gambooling here. If my J2 runs into JT and A8, so be it. With two calls the price isn't bad even if dominated.

[Cpaz]

You couldn't have been dealt better cards in this situation. Thank the poker gods and pray they hold up and get you in the money.

[MAX]

What is gained by pushing? What is gained by folding? The "right price" is irrelevant. There are several factors at play here. Although probably none of us are folding AA, this is a situation where reads (is big stack competent, is bb competent) are impotant and tightening up may make a lot of sense.

What do you get if you push and survive? How often does it help you make it ITM (if bb wins the sidepot, it helps very little, if bb folds and you win, the next hand still determines who makes 3rd - but now you own the "tie break" with a bigger stack)? What hand is worth taking this risk with when the outcome of the next hand will decide your fate regardless of what happens here? You are ai to win the tie break privelidge, winning alone doesn't even guarantee you that.

Big stack will play the hand w/any 2.
If bb is good he will play his hand if he likes it against a random hand. If he plays and wins, then it doesn't matter that you tripled up to 300. If he folds, then you are risking bubbling out for the right to win the tiebreak should you and shortie both bust on the next hand.

so- w playing/AA .....
20% you lose
30% you win but it doesn't matter because bb wins sidepot
50% you win and gain tie break edge for next hand..........
.....so 50% (when one of the other 2 players win the next hand) of the time, the tie break impacts your finishing ITM.
1/2(50%) = 25% ---> this is about how often playing and winning this hand gets you ITM when you would have otherwise lost.

Now, if you fold here, how often do you make the money because bb goes bust (how bout 20%?) How often does bb fold/lose this hand and you are both ai on the next one w/you losing the tie break (80% * 75% = 60%).

I am at work and am typing this on the fly, but it looks to me like you have about a 33% chance of making the money by folding here (sometimes bb busts here, sometimes you survive the next hand and he doesn't). Note that if bb wins this hand, it doesn't really matter that you tripled up-- he still has you outstacked and can fold his smb on the next hand.

So, w/AA we are playing, but is it worth it to play other hands if you believe you are say a 60/40 favorite?

I know these numbers are of the top of my head, but do you see why playing any Arag or Ktag or little pockets may not be correct?

[drmcboy]

price is never irrelevant.

I had some of the same stuff typed, but end of the day I tanked it. Really I think you need to play here, whether you want third, first, the most money possible, whatever. I'll take 60/40 getting 2/1 on my money any day. Too many other variables here to attempt to sort out. If you put a bunch of rules around it - BB calls with XXYY, big stacks plays with ZZ, chance of either biggie having big pair, yadda yadda, I'm sure you could come up with a range, but meh. End of day, play here.

Also I'll note to your note that if BB wins here, he may fold his SB - to you! So I'm not sure where that plays in. Again you have no idea what range he'll set you in with vs fold to you (if you tripled up), vs call against another's raise. Is HE playing for 3rd or first?

[MAX]

You are set ai next hand whether you win this hand or not, and so is the other shortie if he chooses to fold here. So he will never fold his blind to you and neither will the other stacks give you a walk if either one of them catches so much as K high.

If you had 35 chips, would tripling up do anything for you? Would you actually call here if tripling up would not even get you above the other shorty in chips(I hope not)? So what if you have AA, this isn't a cash game!

Does anyone want to present a range of hands that are appropriate to play here? Someone with good ICM skills want to give this a shot?