Good fold or too weak?

[A10Chief]

I figured it would be best to open raise rather than limp, and I thought betting the flop might take it down right there or at least disguise my nut flush draw. When I was reraised, I put the villain on trips, since he cold called my PFR, and it looked like he was defending a set against the flush draw. When the board paired I figured to be drawing dead, and his bet looked like a sucker bet to me. Thoughts on my reasoning...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1480)
UTG+1 (t1490)
MP1 (t1320)
MP2 (t1730)
MP3 (t1570)
CO (t2080)
Button (t800)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1530)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J.
Hero raises to t120, UTG+1 calls t120, MP1 calls t120, 1 fold, MP3 calls t120, 4 folds.

Flop: (t525) T, 8, 5 (4 players)
Hero bets t360, UTG+1 raises to t720, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls t360.

Turn: (t1965) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t240, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2205

[TLR]

A few points

1. I think raising with AJ from EP in a full table is not a good move. I would limp AJ and fold to any reraise.

2. With 4 people seeing the flop I would not bet the draw out of position.

3. I dont think he was defending trip 5's here, without a read I would have to say one of the following: He either completed his boat or he has overpair (maybe J's)

However with over 1/2 your chips already in I would call the turn and push the river if A spade and Ace or a T hits

[MAX]

I agree with TLR-

I wouldn't raise, I would limp and consider this a drawing hand.

-check/call flop (because so many callers preflop leads me to believe that a semi bluff will not fold everyone out)

-check/call turn (you are getting almost 10 to 1 on your flush/overs draw at this point)

-check/call river if you connect (you will get money from worse hands and save money when you're beat)

Seems incredibly passive, but maybe this is a good spot for it. I would put in a small bluff, intended to look like a value bet, on the river when I miss. It only has to work a small percentage of the time to be worth it.

[drmcboy]

No reason to bet this flop. Against one opp, it's a good play. two+, just let someone else lead. If you get a free card, great. You need to assume your fold equity here is 0 and you do not currently have the best hand.

You see from the posts above why we have different names for a SET (PP in hand, one on board) and TRIPS (one in hand, two on board). No one has trips on the flop. Someone may have a set.

If you find yourself often making a play because "I put him on a set" it will usually be the wrong play IMO.

Having said that if you put him on a set, you don't have odds to chase and should fold the flop. It's close, but you need at least 5/1 if you are only calling to see then turn and you don't quite have it. Add in that you put him on the set so he has re draws and it's a fold.

If you call the flop you're playing for the the flush draw and assuming it will win you the pot. Folding the turn is therefore not good, since you now have a massive price to chase. Again, if you put him on a set, the time to fold was the flop, not the turn.

a comment about 'I figured it would be best to open raise '... most poker rules are in place not because there are rules in poker you should always follow, but because there are rules you should always follow UNTIL YOU KNOW WHY YOU DON'T.

Folding or raising AJs UTG this early should be standard TAG strategy IMO, with more folds than raises.

Folding - requires nothing more than discipline.

Raising - requires you know:
1) When you c-bet (answer - not when you get 3 calls behind, esp when the flop isn't much help, but you have a big draw)
2) When to fold to a re raise pre flop(pretty much always)
3) How you will react if you get a 'good' flop (A or J high) and get action.

Limping is the most complex - you need to know:
1) Whether you will call a raise behind. How much will you call?
2) When to fold TP.
3) Pot odds, because we're playing as a draw hand now

The more you play, I suspect you'll find that trying to play hands like AQ, AJ, KQ in EP for a raise just causes you pain and agony. But you won't be ready to hear that until you've gone through the thinking process I have (incompletely) outlined.

[JeffreyGB]

I don't like the raise here. You're mostly getting called by hands that beat you, and frequently by hands that dominate you at that. I hate not knowing where I stand postflop. I don't mind a fold here.

About as often as folding this, I'll limp it, folding to a raise unless I have a read on the player. If it's limped around and an A hits, you're very likely to have the best hand and to get paid by a weaker A. This can bite you in the ass sometimes, but it's been a profitable play for me most of the time.