Good or bad bluff?

[JeffreyGB]

I'd been playing very tight up to this point. I figured I'd try to pick up the pot when it checked around on the flop. When he called, I put him on a misplayed TP and/or a flush draw. I thought I could get him to lay down if I continued to rep the 9 on the river. Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #3419866118: Tournament #16685966, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2005/12/24 - 00:33:32 (ET)
Table '16685966 14' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: hotel22 (2165 in chips)
Seat 2: A_Ivanovich (16494 in chips)
Seat 3: pokergoose63 (35953 in chips)
Seat 4: dirtjockey14 (4729 in chips)
Seat 5: sam356 (8135 in chips)
Seat 6: ucutme (7450 in chips)
Seat 7: tajpokerbabe (1820 in chips)
Seat 8: L88427 (12030 in chips)
Seat 9: JGB146 (9040 in chips)
hotel22: posts the ante 25
A_Ivanovich: posts the ante 25
pokergoose63: posts the ante 25
dirtjockey14: posts the ante 25
sam356: posts the ante 25
ucutme: posts the ante 25
tajpokerbabe: posts the ante 25
L88427: posts the ante 25
JGB146: posts the ante 25
L88427: posts small blind 200
JGB146: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JGB146 [Js 5c]
L88427 said, "tx"
hotel22: calls 400
A_Ivanovich: calls 400
pokergoose63: folds
dirtjockey14: folds
sam356: folds
ucutme: folds
tajpokerbabe: folds
L88427: folds
JGB146: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kh 2h 9s]
JGB146: checks
hotel22: checks
A_Ivanovich: checks
*** TURN *** [Kh 2h 9s] [9d]
JGB146: bets 1200
hotel22: folds
A_Ivanovich: calls 1200
*** RIVER *** [Kh 2h 9s 9d] [Qs]
JGB146: bets 2000
[A_Ivanovich uses half of his time bank]
A_Ivanovich said, "Sorry"
A_Ivanovich said, "I can't think right now."
[A_Ivanovich uses the other half of his time bank]
A_Ivanovich: calls 2000
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JGB146: shows [Js 5c] (a pair of Nines)
A_Ivanovich: shows [8c Ks] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
A_Ivanovich collected 8025 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8025 | Rake 0
Board [Kh 2h 9s 9d Qs]
Seat 1: hotel22 folded on the Turn
Seat 2: A_Ivanovich showed [8c Ks] and won (8025) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 3: pokergoose63 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: dirtjockey14 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: sam356 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ucutme folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: tajpokerbabe (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: L88427 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: JGB146 (big blind) showed [Js 5c] and lost with a pair of Nines

[badandy519]

A_Ivanovich said, "Sorry"
A_Ivanovich said, "I can't think right now."


You were done right here

[KoRnholio]

Not a bad bluff on the turn, but save your chips on the river by check-folding.

[JeffreyGB]

Not a bad bluff on the turn, but save your chips on the river by check-folding.

I barely consider the turn play to be a bluff - it's a standard stab at a pot that no one seems to want. I make that play about 75% of the time with any two.

You don't think a player w/o the 9 is likely to fold the river? Speaking strictly from an odds perspective, this is a profitable play on the river if it works half the time. I'd suspect it would, though probably more so at higher stakes - I wonder if fishiness from my opp was part of what led him to a call.

How do you play it if you're him and a tight player (involved in very few pots since you joined the table) starts giving you the action I'm giving here? Assume you're holding TP, since obviously the flush draw (IMO a reasonably likely holding given his play) is folding.

[michael1123]

Personally, I'd put you on a weak K here (at best), and make the same river call if I were him, but probably a lot quicker.

Like you've said, no one has shown any strength and you bet the turn hard. A 9 wouldn't do that, so at high stakes / against really good players, they'd pick up on that, and you'd get the same call.

If he has a flush draw he is folding, so the river bet is all right. But you shouldn't expect him to fold a K there if you thought he had one.

[JeffreyGB]

Personally, I'd put you on a weak K here (at best), and make the same river call if I were him, but probably a lot quicker.

Like you've said, no one has shown any strength and you bet the turn hard. A 9 wouldn't do that, so at high stakes / against really good players, they'd pick up on that, and you'd get the same call.

Very valid point. If that was the line I planned on taking/repping, would a 1/3-1/2 pot bet on the turn have been better?

[michael1123]

Yeah, I think 1500 or so would've been a good amount. Although I think it would've been better to either not bluff the turn or bet less. If they have no pair and no draw they're not going to call any decent bet, so I think 1/3 - 1/2 of the pot would've been better, and then you'd also not have to risk as much on the river.

[Hubris1]

Not a bad bluff on the turn, but save your chips on the river by check-folding.

You don't think a player w/o the 9 is likely to fold the river? Speaking strictly from an odds perspective, this is a profitable play on the river if it works half the time. I'd suspect it would, though probably more so at higher stakes - I wonder if fishiness from my opp was part of what led him to a call.

Thats my thoughts exactly. Just looks like a misread to me. If he's playing K8o from UTG+1 the dude has to be playing 40% of his hands. I wouldn't try and put a move on him unless you have your boot up his butt.

[dalecooper]

His play is mega-weird. He limps a marginal hand in early position; then he flops top pair/bad kicker, in position, against two people showing no interest in the pot - and checks it. It's possible he's some genius mixing it up big time, but it looks to me like he's seriously fishy.

I'm with Michael on your betting line. 1/2 the pot or even less on the turn is enough to set off warning bells to a thinking player. Then if he calls you (and this one probably will) you can go heavier on the river and maybe extract a fold. His play with the king is improbable enough that I completely understand why you were thinking flush draw.

Given your turn bet though, I would probably bet almost nothing on the river - maybe just north of a min-bet to get a flush draw or unpaired high card to fold.

[nickthefool]

If you're trying to rep a hand, bet like you would if you had the hand.

That's how i try to think of it. At least until i decide the guy isn't folding.

[Easy17]

dont bluff the fish