Here's a tough bubble problem

[homerdash]

$6 turbo. badboytoo is loose and bad, but has been getting cards. If I push, he'll call with anything remotely playable. I'm basically faced with the decision to gamble for all my chips and a much better shot at making 2nd or 1st (albeit in my favor quite significantly), or fold and guarantee the money. Blinds go up to 200/400 very shortly. Push or fold?

PokerStars Game #3464525659: Tournament #17187490, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2005/12/28 - 21:36:00 (ET)
Table '17187490 1' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 4: badboyt00 (3920 in chips)
Seat 6: homerdash (1120 in chips)
Seat 7: bag o bones (8430 in chips)
Seat 9: jradwin08 (30 in chips) is sitting out
badboyt00: posts the ante 25
homerdash: posts the ante 25
bag o bones: posts the ante 25
jradwin08: posts the ante 25
homerdash: posts small blind 100
bag o bones: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to homerdash [Qc Qd]
jradwin08: folds
badboyt00: calls 200
homerdash: ???

[bearcats05]

if he will call you with shit push... play to win dont be a bubble bitch

[Fnord]

I gamble here too. 2nd place is up for grabs and you might even rush into the win.

[Halv]

I push. If he'll call you with any two it will not be a gamble per se most of the time. It'll give you a decent stack size and perhaps a bit of respect for ITM play as well, maybe he wont call/push over your blind steals with shit so easily.

If you get sucked out on, so be it.

I'd love to hear what some of the ICM people in here have to say about this situation.

[Fnord]

I'd love to hear what some of the ICM people in here have to say about this situation.

ICM doesn't account for blind sizes. It assumes a big lottery with each chip being a ticket. Gigabet has some great posts about the short-commings of ICM, stack classes and how he picks spots to gamble it up vs passing on hands he feels he can't get sufficent stack value from.

jradwin08 made a HUGE error folding getting insane pot odds on any 2. However, he may have just gotten his perfect situation....

[MAX]

Fnord- Do you really think that pot odds should be considered when you have to quadruple up and then double up just to have a 1bb stack? If you ran this hand, with the reads given, 100 times, wouldn't jrad make the money more often by folding?

edit: No antes in the games I play, so I am curious if the antes make the diff. between whether it's right to play or not.

[drmcboy]

push and it's not close. Maybe if you were at T300 or something I could see playing for third. You have a great shot to win if you can double once.

Seat 9: jradwin08 (30 in chips) is sitting out

I think his error was going to walk the dog a little early. I don't know what the right play with 30 chips here is. Clearly pot odds say call. Given that you'll need to win your hand from the BB either way to get third (unless someone picks up a monster like QQ ) I am usually gambooling.

[pgil]

there are ante's too so he has to push any 2 here. he can win ~190 by putting in 30, best odds ever.

[MAX]

He would only have to put in 5 (his last 5). How does he win 190?

[drmcboy]

he gets credit for the 25 ante he put in. He starts the hand with 30 chips, so he can potentially win 30 from each player.

[homerdash]

One thing I should have noted:
The guy who was sitting out, he had been sitting out for pretty much the whole thing.

Does your answer change at the $22s? The $55s? The $109s? $5,000 Step 5? Although I would definitely agree that if you're playing SNGs with proper bankroll management, it's certainly the right play to push.

As for the results:
homerdash: raises 895 to 1095 and is all-in
bag o bones: folds
badboyt00: calls 895
*** FLOP *** [5d Ah 7h]
*** TURN *** [5d Ah 7h] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [5d Ah 7h 6c] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
homerdash: shows [Qc Qd] (a pair of Queens)
badboyt00: shows [4c Kc] (a pair of Kings)
bag o bones said, "oh"
badboyt00 collected 2490 from pot
bag o bones said, "homer"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2490 | Rake 0
Board [5d Ah 7h 6c Kd]
Seat 4: badboyt00 (button) showed [4c Kc] and won (2490) with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: homerdash (small blind) showed [Qc Qd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 7: bag o bones (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: jradwin08 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Yep.

[Muxy]

oh well

load up another and knock that one off to variance.

[Sprayed]

Best hand with all the chips in. I think you had to push.

[samsonite2100]

I know I'm posting after seeing the results which may cheapen my opinion on this a bit, but I'm not sure I see the logic in pushing here, regardless of the cards. He is guaranteed ITM if he doesn't make a move. Guaranteed. If this is me, no way do I push. I don't care if I get offered three aces down, I'm not pushing. My number one priority is always to make ITM, and I'll gladly take a scenario where I'm guaranteed third with a chance to improve over the alternative, where I have less ITM certainty but more relative chance to win.

[bearcats05]

I know I'm posting after seeing the results which may cheapen my opinion on this a bit, but I'm not sure I see the logic in pushing here, regardless of the cards. He is guaranteed ITM if he doesn't make a move. Guaranteed. If this is me, no way do I push. I don't care if I get offered three aces down, I'm not pushing. My number one priority is always to make ITM, and I'll gladly take a scenario where I'm guaranteed third with a chance to improve over the alternative, where I have less ITM certainty but more relative chance to win.

play to win

[vqc]

I know I'm posting after seeing the results which may cheapen my opinion on this a bit, but I'm not sure I see the logic in pushing here, regardless of the cards. He is guaranteed ITM if he doesn't make a move. Guaranteed. If this is me, no way do I push. I don't care if I get offered three aces down, I'm not pushing. My number one priority is always to make ITM, and I'll gladly take a scenario where I'm guaranteed third with a chance to improve over the alternative, where I have less ITM certainty but more relative chance to win.

to be finnicky and to push this idea for yet another time.
guaranteeing ITM is not the correct way to think about tournament poker.
$equity is wat he wants.
think about it in terms of money equity. Whether or not this changes ur answer is irrelevant.

Its possible to be 50% ITM and still have a negative ROI...

[samsonite2100]

I feel like you guys are right in the general sense, but wrong in this specific instance. Yes, in general, it's true that you should push hands, play to win, and that aggression at this point in SnGs is rewarded. This, however, is an unusual case.

Here's a hypothetical--a guy walks up, offers you a choice. You can either take 10 bucks, no questions asked, or take the odds offered here (don't know what the odds of winning this hand with QQ is) to win 15. Personally, I'm taking the 10. And that's not even a great hypothetical considering it's not as if by folding this hand you're forfeiting the chance to take 2nd or 1st.