No reads, first hand of a $20 SnG...

[dalecooper]

***** Hand History for Game 3286220051 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:18737337 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, December 30, 14:25:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 68049 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: KTizzle08 ( $800 )
Seat 2: Cabronito ( $800 )
Seat 3: monkeyboy66 ( $800 )
Seat 4: beau3810 ( $800 )
Seat 6: PARMAR7 ( $800 )
Seat 7: StilosManolo ( $800 )
Seat 8: puns210 ( $800 )
Seat 5: AFLAC05 ( $800 )
Seat 9: stressball10 ( $800 )
Seat 10: xk5193 ( $800 )
Trny:18737337 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Ks Ac ]
monkeyboy66 folds.
beau3810 folds.
AFLAC05 raises [30].
PARMAR7 folds.
StilosManolo calls [30].
puns210 folds.
stressball10 raises [75].
xk5193 folds.
KTizzle08 folds.
Cabronito folds.
AFLAC05 calls [45].
StilosManolo calls [45].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, 4d, Js ]
AFLAC05 checks.
StilosManolo checks.
stressball10 bets [125].
AFLAC05 folds.
StilosManolo calls [125].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
StilosManolo checks.
stressball10 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
StilosManolo checks.


..? Bet or check? What's he got?

[MAX]

He's probably got top pair and was scared of the flush. He'll call a reasonable bet so you aren't stealing this pot from him without going real big (not worth it). The other, less likely, scenario is that he has the flush or a smaller pair. Is he folding here to a bet? I don't think it's likely enough to be worth taking a stab. Lots of players take this line when they think they are best but prefer not to play a big pot.

edit: I don't hate a push. You would probably take it down.

[homerdash]

Raise more preflop or flat call.
Just from seeing these guys' preflop actions, they seem pretty passive. I don't think I would try a continuation bet there, check behind and see the turn, but you definitely bet if they both check to you again on the turn.

My guess for their hand is 77, 99, TT. Maybe a even higher pocket pair? I think the important thing is they've probably got you beat and they're probably not going to fold to anything reasonable.

I'm going with TT/99 here. He wants a cheap showdown and is scared of the flush draw and the jack.

However with no reads I don't feel comfortable in trying to bet him off this hand, as he can easily donk(?) call.

In conclusion, check behind and pick a more clear-cut opportunity to win moneys.

[Aplomado]

I wouldn't take a stab at that flop. 90% of the time you're getting called with two or more other people in the hand. Check and then fire at the turn if there's no action.

[GatorJH]

With the little amount of information that you have I think this is an easy check. My guess is that he donk called with 10 J and is worried about the flush.

[MAX]

Inspired by this thread....
1st hand of a 22. A little wreckless, but I think it is +EV. Completely out of my usual style of play, but was thinking about Dale's post and figured if I thought a push would take it down then I was gonna doooo it.

15/30 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 18749642) - Fri Dec 30 21:16:57 EST 2005
Table Table 69541 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: yevinyepr (800)
Seat 2: Puchitaan (800)
Seat 3: RRTHP (800)
Seat 4: Revolver_O (800)
Seat 5: jta1981 (800)
Seat 6: merlintb (800)
Seat 7: Shamrock71 (800)
Seat 8: sportsthrpst (800)
Seat 9: HERO (800)
Seat 10: nomad03 (800)
RRTHP posts small blind (10)
Revolver_O posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kh, As ]
jta1981 calls (15)
merlintb calls (15)
Shamrock71 folds.
sportsthrpst calls (15)
HERO raises (75) to 75
nomad03 folds.
yevinyepr folds.
Puchitaan calls (75)
RRTHP folds.
Revolver_O folds.
jta1981 calls (60)
merlintb calls (60)
sportsthrpst calls (60)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5d, 9d, 6s ]
jta1981 checks.
merlintb checks.
sportsthrpst checks.
HERO checks.
Puchitaan checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
jta1981 checks.
merlintb bets (100)
sportsthrpst calls (100)
HERO raises (725) to 725
HERO is all-In.
Puchitaan folds.
jta1981 folds.
merlintb folds.
sportsthrpst folds.
Creating Main Pot with $1325 with IMaxWell111
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1325
Board: [ 5d 9d 6s 5s ]
yevinyepr balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
Puchitaan balance 725, lost 75 (folded)
RRTHP balance 790, lost 10 (folded)
Revolver_O balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
jta1981 balance 725, lost 75 (folded)
merlintb balance 625, lost 175 (folded)
Shamrock71 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
sportsthrpst balance 625, lost 175 (folded)
HERO balance 1325, bet 800, collected 1325, net +525
nomad03 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)

[GatorJH]

Completely out of my usual style of play, but was thinking about Dale's post and figured if I thought a push would take it down then I was gonna doooo it.

Why would you put your entire tournament at risk trying a stone cold bluff with FOUR other people in the pot and only 6 outs to improve your hand (IF no one has the set or a straight)? This isn't a bold courageous move, it's just plain dumb. You got lucky.

Completely out of my usual style of play, but was thinking about Dale's post and figured if I thought a push would take it down then I was gonna doooo it.

Why would you put your entire tournament at risk trying a stone cold bluff with FOUR other people in the pot and only 6 outs to improve your hand (IF no one has the set or a straight)? This isn't a bold courageous move, it's just plain dumb. You got lucky.

I have to agree, MAX.

You're on check/fold mode from the flop onwards. Trying a move like this against so many opponents is way too risky.

Consider how easy it is that one of the opponents (other than the turn bettor) could be slowplaying a set (boat on the turn). Very easy.

Silly play.

[MAX]

Well......
*An over pair doesn't check that flop.
*A hand w/ a 5 in it doesn't call preflop (and if they are bad enough to play A5, i think they are betting on the flop)
*If the raiser and caller were semi bluffing, they are not getting the odds to chase the river.
*If the caller had something worth protecting he would have reraised on the draw heavy board(str8/flush/overs draws).

There is 525 out there for the taking and the only hands that call me here are trips (see above), big pp (would have bet on flop, probably reraised pre), and the boat (pp that boated up). The boat is the only hand that could be out there with the way the hand played up til now, and even then I think a set bets out on that flop. MerlinB didn't bet enough to protect a made hand against draws and the caller didn't think enough of his hand to protect it w/reraise. If someone on a draw calls me, then I have the best hand. I may not have the best hand, but I think no one has the 5, no one has a pp they are willing to call ai with, and only a boat is lookin me up. How often is a boat out there? If 2 opp. had pp, then a boat is out there maybe 20% of the time. If that is the case, This is a very +EV play. If a draw looks me up, this is a very +EV play. And yes, it is wreckless.

edit: Even if you hate the play and think i'm crazy, it was most definatly bold.

*A hand w/ a 5 in it doesn't call preflop (and if they are bad enough to play A5, i think they are betting on the flop)

Why? A loose/passive player calls A5 preflop and checks any flop all day long.

I think a set bets out on that flop.

Why? A solid opponent is probably/certainly checking the flop hoping to get in a checkraise.

[MAX]

1- There is a lot of money in the pot. Anything is possible, but I think it's unlikely that the 5 is out there (there are 2 on the board, 5bb raise pre, and no one bet the flop w/325 in the pot). We could go back and forth about what's possible (anything is possible), but lets stick to what's likely. Look at the action leading up to my push, no one bet out at the flop, and that is not a flop to slowplay. The bet on the turn was weak and gave correct odds to anyone wanting to chase either of the flush draws and probably wouldn't fold out the str8 draw either. I don't buy someone playing a 5 like this from preflop to my push, just because it's possible doesn't mean it's so.

2- Solid opp. would bet out w/ a set. There are 2 draws on the flop and people will often call a small bet w/overs. Everyone plays it diff., so I can agree that there are plenty who bet and plenty who check. Those who checked behind me should be betting out on the flop w/ a set as there is not much likelyhood of a check raise oppurtunity.

I completely respect the point of view that it's not worth getting involved early when you can press your skill advantage later on (bubble). I completely respect the point of view that chip EV doesn't equal money EV in SnGs. So, if you were saying that this is +EV chip wise, but -EV money wise, I would get where you are coming from (I don't know if this is +EV moneywise or not). I do however think that this bet gets called rarely, occasionaly by draws that I am ahead of, occasionaly when I am drawing dead, and occasionaly when I actually have outs to tp. But I think I take this down often enough to make it significantly +EV chip wise.

Obviously this is a very AGG move and I just felt that the circumstances were such that it was likely to work. My roll can handle the variance of something like this, but if I thought it were -EV I wouldn't have done it.

I really hope to hear from more of the regular posters. Although there are major diff. between Dale's hand and my own, his post really made me think. I initially thought that he would be silly to try a raise on the river, and still do. But pushing was an interesting option and my stance was that I wouldn't do it, but it would probably work enough to be profitable- most of our reads were that opp. had a better-but-mediocre holding and would call a reasonable raise on the river, but probably couldn't withstand a push. Well, I figured the same here- no one had the 5, no one had the boat and I could make better hands fold.

[ilikeaces86]

Max I just dont think that you are going to come out ahead over time making this move. You are putting too much in the pot to win a smaller pot than your stack and are probably going to get called too often to makie it the correct play.

[MAX]

Thank you all, I appreciate the advice.