Suck the bubble

[FlyingSaucy]

YO homies. K So I just got the bankroll to step up a level to the $20 sngs. The problem is I suck nuts.
I do just fine at the $10s, I rarely bubble out. In fact it is only 7% of the time do I take 4th place. Now I've stepped up to the 20's, only to drop below my bankroll threshold and be forced to go back to the 10s. I've been going back and forth for some time now. I've only played 22 games at the $20 level, so I realise this is a small sample size, but the number of times i've bubbled out at the $20 level is disconcerting.
Here are my numbers thus far.
Place Count
1 3
2 3
3 0
4 7
5 2
6 0
7 1
8 4
9 1
10 1

So far, as you can see my ITM is sucking around 22% and my ROI is just barely in the negative at this level. I saved a hand history of a particularly brutal bubble out, would that help you to determine if I am a moron that sucks nuts on the bubbleroo's butt nut choad hairs? Doogie balls labia.

I'm still having fun if you can't tell. I don't mind because I am comfortable making money at the $10's, it's just, I wish I could consistently stay on the $20 level.

Nard holes, sensitive poop mucus stomper outter.

[nogenius]

It's just variance.

Post more pushes.

[ekillian]

It's just variance.

Post more pushes.

Insightful nogenius...

Ok I have a theory but I'm not sure if it's the case. 20 bubbles are tighter than 10 bubbles. If you're short you can push more and have it folded and but when you get called it's by something solid. And a lot of times fewer people are playing aggressively on the bubble so you're gonna be there longer and you're gonna need to be more patient. Most people would say that this sounds like a great chance to chip up, and to an extent they're right. But you don't want to be the only one flinging chips around because when someone bites they're gonna come with it.

[a500lbgorilla]

So far, as you can see my ITM is sucking around 22% and my ROI is just barely in the negative at this level.

It sounds to me like variance. Of course, this is easy for me to say and hard for you to hear becuase that means you have to just have faith in your game. It would be easier if I told you you were doing something wrong. But, like isn't fair. :P

-'rilla

[FlyingSaucy]

Update.
I just got out of a 7 game streak of not being ITM, and 5 of the 7 were bubble out finishes. I used to get pissed but now I'm just accepting it as fact. There is definitely something wrong with my play.
I think next time I will refuse to take 4th place, even if it means taking big risks when there are still 5 players left.

I've got plenty of HHs in case anyone cares to critique. Otherwise, I solicit your bubble play strategy. I've got to drop back down to the $5 games again, where I have historically done excellently with bubble play. This sucks. I've got literally 32% of my finishes at the $10 level have been 4th place.

[MAX]

When I first moved to the 22s, I went on a $1000+ upswing. From my peak, I have been on a $400 downswing (very painful). I have reviewed countless HH and found that my play has been consisent, and I have actually been playing quite well (always room for improvement though). I have lost with the best hand countless times and am winning about 15% of my races! Short term, the only way to judge your ability is thru analyzing your HH. Results are completely unreliable.

[IslandAK]

Check your hand histories. Are you playing into strength with marginal hands? ekillian's post said 22's are tighter around the bubble. It follows that when someone raises before you they might have a real hand. You (more often) need a real hand to come over the top. Just look for "normal"
steal opportunites.

Looking at how you lost will help you decide if it's just variance too. If you're just getting the worst of it in your coinflips and 60/40's and 80/20's (heh), don't worry about it. It will stop. Last week I droppped 10 buy-ins in 3 days (I lost 1 buy-in/set I played). I felt good. I felt I played well. I just lost most of my coinflips.

[FlyingSaucy]

I appreciate your responses. I've reviewed the HHs. I actually only came over the top of someone's PFR once (all in holding JJ) and he folded, probably on a steal.
I think my problem is not in any one hand, or getting too laggy against strength, but I am systematically folding raisable hands in an unraised pot when it is 4 handed. For example, blinds 100/200 my stack at ~2000. Maybe I should think about pushing it more often. See HH below. There are a lot of borderline cases where I figure it's better to play it safe and fold, since next hand I could be seeing someone else bubble out. Of course this rarely happens. I figure by the time I am down to only 10 BB's, it's time to push more often or fold preflop. It's a question of whether to go down in a blaze of glory by taking risks, or get blinded out when the big stacks always come over the time of my blinds, and I'm holding something like 95off every time. Maybe I'm too "card" focused.

The thing that gets me is that I place 1st through 5th over 70% of the time, so I know I've got my early to middle game down.
Hey thanks again for your advice. I think it helps me just typing this stuff out to consider my potential flaws.

Hand #10640433-108 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:00:52

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5345.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 2075.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 5185.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2395.
The button is at seat 2.

StackEmHigh posts the small blind of 100.
Doc287S posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: 4s 8c
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

ineedrice folds. FlyingSaucy folds. StackEmHigh
calls. Doc287S checks.

Flop (board: Qs 6d 2c):

StackEmHigh checks. Doc287S bets 200. StackEmHigh
folds. Doc287S is returned 200 (uncalled).



Hand #10640433-108 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Doc287S wins 400.
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #10640433-109 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:01:18

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5345.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 2075.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 4985.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2595.
The button is at seat 3.

Doc287S posts the small blind of 100.
ineedrice posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: As 7h
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

FlyingSaucy raises to 400. StackEmHigh re-raises to
1500. Doc287S folds. ineedrice folds. FlyingSaucy
folds. StackEmHigh is returned 1100 (uncalled).

StackEmHigh opts to show Kh Ac.


Hand #10640433-109 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
StackEmHigh wins 1100.
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #10640433-110 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:01:40

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5145.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 1675.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 5685.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2495.
The button is at seat 7.

ineedrice posts the small blind of 100.
FlyingSaucy posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: 4d 8d
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

StackEmHigh folds. Doc287S raises to 400. ineedrice
folds. FlyingSaucy folds. Doc287S is returned 200
(uncalled).



Hand #10640433-110 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Doc287S wins 500.
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #10640433-111 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:01:50

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5045.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 1475.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 5685.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2795.
The button is at seat 1.

FlyingSaucy posts the small blind of 100.
StackEmHigh posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: Ah 5c
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

Doc287S folds. ineedrice folds. FlyingSaucy calls.
StackEmHigh checks.

Flop (board: Js Ks 7h):

FlyingSaucy bets 200. StackEmHigh raises to 400.
FlyingSaucy folds. StackEmHigh is returned 200
(uncalled).

StackEmHigh opts to show Td Kc.
StackEmHigh has Td Kc Js Ks 7h: a pair of kings.


Hand #10640433-111 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
StackEmHigh wins 800.
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #10640433-112 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:02:12

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5045.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 1075.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 6085.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2795.
The button is at seat 2.

StackEmHigh posts the small blind of 100.
Doc287S posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: Qc Jd
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

ineedrice folds. FlyingSaucy goes all-in for 1075.
StackEmHigh folds. Doc287S folds. FlyingSaucy is
returned 875 (uncalled).



Hand #10640433-112 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
FlyingSaucy wins 500.
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #10640433-113 at SnG-0015p (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 30/Dec/05 13:02:32

ineedrice is at seat 1 with 5045.
FlyingSaucy is at seat 2 with 1375.
StackEmHigh is at seat 3 with 5985.
Doc287S is at seat 7 with 2595.
The button is at seat 3.

Doc287S posts the small blind of 100.
ineedrice posts the big blind of 200.

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: Ks 8s
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

Pre-flop:

FlyingSaucy goes all-in for 1375. StackEmHigh calls.
Doc287S folds. ineedrice folds.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

FlyingSaucy shows Ks 8s.
StackEmHigh shows Qd Qh.


Flop (board: 6d 2d 2s):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: 6d 2d 2s Ah):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 6d 2d 2s Ah Jh):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

FlyingSaucy has Ks 2d 2s Ah Jh: a pair of deuces.
StackEmHigh has Qd Qh 2d 2s Ah: two pair, queens and deuces.


Hand #10640433-113 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
StackEmHigh wins 3050 with two pair, queens and deuces.
----------------------------------------------------------------

[ZenOffsuit]

How come you didn't push this?

ineedrice: -- --
FlyingSaucy: Ah 5c
StackEmHigh: -- --
Doc287S: -- --

[Eat the Flesh]

Never call from SB w/ a Ax in hand--Always raise or push AI.(with only 4 left and folded to you)

[IslandAK]

Never call from SB w/ a Ax in hand--Always raise or push AI.(with only 4 left and folded to you)

Yes. You need to chip up. If he folds great (no risk and you get chips). If he calls with a worse hand fine (more risk, but more chips). If you he calls with a better hand, oh well (lots of risk, same chips as aboove).

"Golden opportunites" to steal happen infrequently--even 4-handed. This is one of those. What are the chances he has a better hand than you? Not that great, play the odds.

If this hh is indicative of what's happening in the majority of your games, stealing the blinds will help A LOT. It will help keep your stack even so you don't have to makes moves like your last hand (Ks8s). I would have pushed in that situation too. But, if you keep your stack even you don't feel pressured into making that move.

BTW, The As7h min raise, then fold. That's fine. If 2xbb has been folding the table, why risk more. Then when he comes waaaaaay over your head you let it go. No problem. Next hand. Look for another opportunity to steal.