Play Of The Week

[DoGGz]

NFL 6-3-2

I had KC +2 (in other thread)

Also going with

SD +4 2 units
DEN +2 3 units
INDY ML 10 units

[blade]

NFL: Buf +3

NFL ytd: 2-4

also playin this week:
Rams -3
Colts -15.5
Skins -13.5
Broncos +2
Chargers +3.5
Falcons -7
Seahawks -4
Bengals Even

[DoGGz]

PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLTS -14.5

It took me so long to go with this play, and there is good reason. It's week 7 and the colts are laying HUGE points. Is Houston REALLY this bad? They can't get blown out EVERY game, can they? Yes, yes they can. The Texans are probably the worst team in the league to backdoor cover on top of this. They just have no offence, and they come in playing the top ranked defence. The Colts are forcing the most sacks in the league, and the Texans are taking the most sacks in the league. Last week the Texans rearranged the OLine and slowed down Seattle, but still put up a paltry 10 points. The Colts defence will not be so kind.

On top of this, The Colts have won all of their last 3 games by over 14 points. They show that they will put a team away and hold a huge lead. Their offence has been coming alive and has put up large numbers over the last 3 weeks. Don't expect them to slow down for the last ranked Texans defence.

I'm going huge on this game, because I would just be upset with myself if I didn't. Cash in with me on this game.

Colts -14.5 3 Units
Colts ML -979 10 Units

TEAM TOTALS

Texans UNDER 14.5 Points 1 Unit
Colts OVER 30.5 Points 2 Units

[ensign_lee]

If you can tease the line, I'd take Colts -19.5. It pays out considerably better.

Also, take Colts -9.5 for halftime. The Colts are bound to score in the 2 minute warning, so that's at least 30% of the spread right there, more likely 70% of the spread.

In the first quarter, take the over for 7.5. The Colts are going to score at least one touchdown, more likely two. The Texans, more than likely, are going to go three and out, but who knows? They could score a field goal. . Taking this bet, what you're saying is that you believe that the Colts can score, then stop the texans, then score again, all in the first quarter. Being a Texans fan, I can tell you that this is very likely.

[DoGGz]

PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLTS -14.5

It took me so long to go with this play, and there is good reason. It's week 7 and the colts are laying HUGE points. Is Houston REALLY this bad? They can't get blown out EVERY game, can they? Yes, yes they can. The Texans are probably the worst team in the league to backdoor cover on top of this. They just have no offence, and they come in playing the top ranked defence. The Colts are forcing the most sacks in the league, and the Texans are taking the most sacks in the league. Last week the Texans rearranged the OLine and slowed down Seattle, but still put up a paltry 10 points. The Colts defence will not be so kind.

On top of this, The Colts have won all of their last 3 games by over 14 points. They show that they will put a team away and hold a huge lead. Their offence has been coming alive and has put up large numbers over the last 3 weeks. Don't expect them to slow down for the last ranked Texans defence.

I'm going huge on this game, because I would just be upset with myself if I didn't. Cash in with me on this game.

Colts -14.5 3 Units
Colts ML -979 10 Units

TEAM TOTALS

Texans UNDER 14.5 Points 1 Unit
Colts OVER 30.5 Points 2 Units

Colts took it to the house for me today. Would have been a perfect 4 picks if not for a late 2nd quater TD and a meaningless kickoff return late in the 4th. Total play +5 units!

[Grand_MasterB]

Great weekend for me.. seems to be that way for alot of people here.

Was +6 units this weekend.

NFL POTW (5-2 year to date)
KC+2, that line was a gift

NFL picks year to date: 15-8-1

NCAA POTW (2-5 year to date)
VT -9 , finally starting to get my NCAA record on track.. but this is why i bet mostly NFL

[blade]

NFL: chicago +3
the loss of Bly should help Muhammed. Garcia should be in for a long day.
sorry chicago. you get the kiss of death this week.

NFL POTW YTD: 2-5 (Raiders D holds McGahee, wow)

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL
Houston Texans -1.5
5-2 year to date (i rule at NFL!!)

NCAA
Nebraska -1.5
2-5 year to date (NCAA hates me)

taking the small home chalk this week.

not betting anything in real money this week. not a whole lot that i like in the NFL and i havent had time to cap the games.

[ensign_lee]

I wouldn't bet on the Texans. Dilfer's gonna have all day to throw.

[Grand_MasterB]

Houston come through for me! Crappy Browns

NFL year to date: 6-2

NCAA year to date: 2-6

[DoGGz]

Play of the WEEK(year) week 9

Seahawks -4 at the Cardinals

Is this line for real? First off. The hawks demolished the Cardinals in there last game. The only 2 games the Cardinals have played close is verse SF and TEN. Also, the Seahawks had the week off to rest and prepare.

The Seahawks are very underrated in the public eye, and you should take this gift for what it is.

Hawks -4 5units

EDIT: Oh yea, they have this guy named Alexander...

I pushed another 5 units on this play and this will be my only play this weekend. It is just that strong of a play. Arizona cannot run the ball at all, and the Seahawks weekness is the run D. The Seattle is giving up less than 200 yards per game in the air, and is going to make it very difficult for the Cardinals to get anything going. On top of this, the Cardinals run defence IS one of their weekpoints. The Seahawks are one of the best teams running the ball this season.

Go seahawks

[blade]

NFL: Car at TB Car -1.5
nfl potw ytd: 3-5 (Chi was kind. also had them on a 2-parlay (ML and U) which returned +3.4 units)
also playin this week so far:
SD at NYJ SD -6
Chi at NO Chi -3
Atl at Mia Atl -2
NYG at SF NYG -10
Sea at Arz Sea -4
Pit at GB Pit -6
Ind at NE Ind -3

[ensign_lee]

Can anyone give me any reasons NOT to take the Falcons -2 over the Dolphins? I mean, really.

Or better yet, can someone talk me into taking the Falcons along with Seattle this week?

[DoGGz]

Can anyone give me any reasons NOT to take the Falcons -2 over the Dolphins? I mean, really.

Or better yet, can someone talk me into taking the Falcons along with Seattle this week?

I'll tell you that it's a trap. Even though Vegas is taking heavy betting on ATL, the line hasn't moved at all. They don't do this very often, but when they do there is a reason. If 80% betting favorites won often then Vegas would lose. Vegas does not lose.

Incase you care the Indy game and the Seattle game are both traps as well, but I feel the Seattle game is set for a trap for the wrong reasons. May come back to bite me.

[ensign_lee]

Could you elaborate on that for me doggz? PM me if need be, but yeah. I was going to go heavy on these two games and now you've got me worried.

[DoGGz]

Could you elaborate on that for me doggz? PM me if need be, but yeah. I was going to go heavy on these two games and now you've got me worried.

It is simple. The idea of a line is to force half the action on one team and half the action on the other team. This way the house wins no matter what. This is where line movements come in if they feel the action is coming in to heavy on one team.

A trap is simple. They perceive the line at X place, but they know the public loves a team. They set the line where they think they can push the most action on one team and then take it to the bank when that team doesn't cover.

ATL
INDY
Seattle

Bets are coming in over 70% on these teams, if these 'sure picks' always worked out sportsbetters would be millioniars and people like Steve Wynn wouldn't be building new casinos every year.

Simply, Vegas doesn't lose, so you need to identify the lines that look like a gift from the ones that truely are, and Vegas doesn't often give away free money.

[DoGGz]

But then again, this is just one line of thought. If you go to wagerline dot com they show line movements and betting action (of limited sample that is). They list the picks that are taking over 60% of the bets - the 'sure picks'. Looking at the stats shows that these picks are exactly 50%, in other words, exactly the same as if you just randomly picked teams every week.

Don't hesitate to make a play if you feel it is a strong move. A good sports bettor only wins 55%+ of his picks, just make sure you have reasons for making the picks.

[ensign_lee]

Well after looking around, I'm really scared on this Atlanta game now. It seems as though everything's ripe for a Miami upset. Miami's defense strength is the run and the Falcons just love to pound it up the middle. At the same time, the Falcons run defense is fairly poor, and the Dolphins seem to have found their groove running the ball. I already placed my bet on ATL -2.5 at -105, but I'm getting nervous.

Would you mind elaborating on the whole "wrong reasons" thing regarding the Seattle/Arizona game? I've actually seen the line move quite a bit and be different on different sportsbooks, so what does this mean?

Sorry to bother you so much doggz, but you seem to know what you're doing.

[DoGGz]

Well after looking around, I'm really scared on this Atlanta game now. It seems as though everything's ripe for a Miami upset. Miami's defense strength is the run and the Falcons just love to pound it up the middle. At the same time, the Falcons run defense is fairly poor, and the Dolphins seem to have found their groove running the ball. I already placed my bet on ATL -2.5 at -105, but I'm getting nervous.

Would you mind elaborating on the whole "wrong reasons" thing regarding the Seattle/Arizona game? I've actually seen the line move quite a bit and be different on different sportsbooks, so what does this mean?

Sorry to bother you so much doggz, but you seem to know what you're doing.

I'm actually a rookie, but I did stay at a holiday inn last night!

It's about reading. There is a lot of good information availible if you want to find it.

Reasons I like Seattle:

-Top run game verses a bad Zona run defence.
-Good pass defence verses a Zona team that can't do anything BUT pass.
-The ONLY close games Zona has played are verse terrible teams. Every game verse a solid opponent they get destroyed.
-Seattle is underrated across the board.
-People are playing to much stock in both Seattles #1 and 2 recievers being hurt. Hawks have shown this won't slow down the attack.
-Seattle is one of those teams that put teams away, and have no problem running up the score... means less backdoor covers.

Reasons I don't like Seattle:

-They are playing away from home and they play much better in the controled dome turf.

Reasons why they think this is a trap:

Trends, which I don't put stock in. Any good poker player knows over a small sample size results like AA losing 5 times in a row is very possible. This doesn't mean don't play AA or that it's a crappy hand.

Seattle is 0 - 6 after the bye week under Homlgren.
Seattle is 6-15 Against the spread in their last 21 games.
Seattle is 2-4-0 ATS in its last 6 away games

A gambler sees a team he doesn't want to bet on, a poker player sees random variance. Analize each game independantly, just as you would each hand in poker

I make my plays like I play poker, It's about equity. If I feel a bet wins about 60% of the time, then it's a solid play and I go with it.

Worst case Seattle loses a close game, best case they win by 30. The odds are definately tilted in a solid Seattle win.

[DoGGz]

Anquan Boldin WR Out Week 9 (knee)

Holy shit, I had no idea he was hurt. Wow that is such a huge advantage for the Seahawks. I already have half my years earnings on this game, which is probably foolish in itself. I love this bet there is so much equity in it.

[DoGGz]

I <3 Seattle

[ensign_lee]

Me too. I also love ATL.

Stupid Chargers...win by 5 when I have -5.5.
How do you nearly give up a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter?

[DoGGz]

Me too. I also love ATL.

Stupid Chargers...win by 5 when I have -5.5.
How do you nearly give up a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter?

to the 3rd string QB no less. I had chargers -6, but only for 1unit. Still, wtf?

[ttanaka]

Some nice picks in here this week, thanks guys. Made money on Seattle (3 units) and Pittsburgh (1 unit), lost San Diego (1 unit), and pushed Chicago (1 unit).

Any last second picks on Washington (-3) v Philly? I think I'll take Washington 1 unit.

*Edit - TO is out, definitely Washington.

[DoGGz]

Some nice picks in here this week, thanks guys. Made money on Seattle (3 units) and Pittsburgh (1 unit), lost San Diego (1 unit), and pushed Chicago (1 unit).

Any last second picks on Washington (-3) v Philly? I think I'll take Washington 1 unit.

*Edit - TO is out, definitely Washington.

I was leaning Washington early in the week, but I think removing TO will motivate the Eagles. The line is just too close for me. I'd take Wash -3 (+100) but the juice is inflated on all the books I could find.

Week 10 lines are coming out as I'm typing this, stay tuned.

[DoGGz]

WEEK 10 Play of the Week

Kansas City vs Buffalo

Take
Kansas City ML +126 4 Units

First lets look at this game. We have Buffalo coming off a bye and KC coming off a big win at Oakland. The Priest is still hurt, and as of this post I am not sure if he will be playing. Lets hope he isn't. Larry Johnson is a better back with more explosive plays and gives the Cheif a better chance to score the long strike.

Buffalo played well vs New England last week, but the Pats team they played is not that same Pats team that won 3 Superbowls. Apparently Vegas isn't watching the same Bills team that I have playing sloppy and making way to many mistakes that are costing them.

Matchup wise we have the Bills running attack vs the KC running defence. People still remember the crappy KC D of old. It isn't the same defence this year. KC Defence is ranked very well verse the rush and they haven't given up a 100 yard rusher all season. The weak spot on the Cheifs is their battered secondary, but fortunately for us the Bills haven't much success through the air.

The best news of all is that the Bills just cannot defend the rush. Playing only a handful of good rushing teams so far this season, they are giving up more than 5 yards per carry. They are playing a very fresh Johnson that is averaging over 5 yards per carry. This is great news for us, not so great for the Bills.

What to look for: The Cheifs will keep it on the ground over 30 times and dominate the Time of Possession.

Reasons I like the Cheifs:
The Bills can't stop the run
The Cheifs can stop the run
The Bills haven't beaten a decent opponent.

Reason I don't like the Cheifs:

Holcome has played well in the last 2 weeks

The only way the Bills can win is if they establish a strong enough passing game to open up the run.

Cheifs 27-20

Thoughts: The Cheifs are DOGS in this game, they have to win LESS THAN 45% of the time for this to be a positive play.

[blade]

potw: Was at TB Was E

Action as of Tues.:
KC at Buf KC ML
NYJ at Car Car -9
Den at Oak Den -3
Dal at Phi Dal ML
(Phi loses their top receiver for the year, and gets better. Westbrook and Akers finally sign the extensions they've been waiting for and deservedly so, so it's happy-happy time in Phi., until Dallas rolls into town.)

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL play of the week: 6-2 so far this year

Denver -3

Total NFL betting this year... 15-6-1
other games im on this week

NE -3... they wont lose two in a row.

those two are the only so far.. might find some more value later

[blade]

i added today also for week 10:
NE at Mia NE -2.5
GB at Atl atl -9

[Grand_MasterB]

That denver game was too easy of a call
NFL POTW 7-2

NFL year to date
16-6-1 (yeah new england.. way to hang in there!)

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL POTW (7-2 so far this year)

Carolina -3

Carolina is a superbowl contender. Bears are only going to be a playoff team because of the division they play in. I love carolina here in this spot. Their awesome run D should put alot of pressure on chicagos young passing game. Weather also looks pretty nice there for sunday, 45 and partly sunny. So i dont think this will affect the game much

Other NFL plays (16-6-1 so far this year on all NFL plays)
Also thinking about Indy -6.
Cincy is a decent team but Indy is it in the NFL. Cinci cant stop the run and Edge is tearing it up. Cinci has alot of interceptions but Peyton knows how to control the ball and should protect it. they should handle them by a touchdown

[blade]

nfl: Phi at NYG NYG -7
put a fork in 'em, they're done. roast eagle bein served in NY. Tiki should handle his part nicely. eagles run offense shouldn't surprise NY like they did dallas last week. just cover on special teams, damn.
nfl potw ytd: 4-6, jfc (crazy call but alstott looked short)

i definitely like carolina and indy to cover too. the better the weather in Chicago should definitely favor carolina's pass game over the bears. I like jacksonville -4 also. looks like a good defensive matchup for the jags.

dog pick of the week:
Mia at Cle Mia ML
Miami should control both sides of the running game. Brown and Williams need solid outputs to keep the rock out of QBs hands. for brownies to win, dilfer will need success in the air game, but i don't see enough of that for brownies to win.

[Grand_MasterB]

Blade i like your miami thoughts. But be careful with that. I believe their starting QB situation is up in the air. Might make this game one to pass on.

[blade]

Miami is my only dog play of the week. i feel kinda weird if i don't have at least 1 dog play. i try to avoid betting on those loser games, but i found myself staring at this one too long, which means i'm playin it. Frerotte may be out, but i'm hoping miami QBs won't factor too much in this one.

[DoGGz]

My plays this week

Indy -5
Seattle -11.5

Holding out for the Bears line to move, but it doesn't seem to be moving. I reallllly want to get the Bears +4

[blade]

NFL: Den at Dal: Den E
open line on this was Dal -2 but this line was dropping quick. this should be an awesome game and Dallas should get a good taste of what an AFC playoff team is all about.
NFL potw ytd: 5-6 (the G-Men encourage McNabb to opt for surgery)

other current plays:
SD at WAS: SD -3. I'll be shocked if this doesn't go up at least .5

Chi at TB Chi +3. Waiting for the ML to post. Also like the under at 33 on this one.

[blade]

NFL potw: GB at Chi U30.5

NFL potw ytd: 6-6
NFL ytd: 45-32-3

Also playin for now:
GB at Chi Chi -7
Min at Det Min -2.5
Atl at Car Car -3
Sea at Phi Sea -4

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL potw: GB at Chi U30.5

NFL potw ytd: 6-6
NFL ytd: 45-32-3

Also playin for now:
GB at Chi Chi -7
Min at Det Min -2.5
Atl at Car Car -3
Sea at Phi Sea -4

I really like your Min play blade... i think thats the best on the boards this week for NFL.. its my POTW.... That Atl game makes me nervous though... I think Car is slightly better but their offense has been stalling some and historically Atl owns them. I might tail you on your seattle play also. Good luck!

[blade]

GMB, i know what your sayin on the ATL at Car game. Atlanta has owned the Panthers historically. This bet for me is purely a gut play. I've liked Carolina to take the division since pre-season and still think they can, but they'll need to deal with Vick and win this home game to do so.
If Seattle can't cover -4 at Philly, they are truly unworthy of their 9-2 record.

[blade]

NFL POTW 14: Was at Arz Was -3
This one is money.

NFL POTW YTD: 7-6
NFL YTD: 55-32-3

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL POTW (8-3 So Far this Year)
Was -3 (My boys get it done in a must win game to have any chance at the playoffs)


NFL Bets To Date
17-6-1

Leaning towards NE -3.. have to do more research on it though

[ensign_lee]

This week, there are lots of matchups with the have's vs. the have not's. Looks like teaser city to me.

As far as straight bets, Washington -3.5, for sure. (I should have nabbed -3 at +100 as soon as it came out...dang it!).

Cincinatti should be able to hit -12 at home to officially put away the division. I mean, look at what they did to the Ravens last time the Ravens came into their house. They were even trying to run up the score after being up by 30+ points!

Denver is another home favorite that could cover a large spread. The Ravens barely held my poor Texans in check last week and could never really get their offense going against a pitiful Texans defense. Think of what Denver will do to them. Plus, Denver will have to be pissed after that loss to KC and will probably take it out on Baltimore. I bought the hook at -13.5 (-115), just in case, but 14 looks fairly solid as well.

These are the three plays that stand out to me right now as far as straight bets go. I'll post my teasers later. Have fun, guys.

[ensign_lee]

This week, I'm going heavy on teasers, centered around the Colts game and the Bengals game.

Games good for a 6+ point teaser:
Colts -7.5
Bengals -12
Titans -6.5
Vikings -6.5
Giants -7

Teams good for a 6.5+ point teaser:
All of the above

Teams good for a 7 point teaser:
Broncos -14
+ all of the above.
Maybe Atlanta -10, if you're feeling frisky.

[ensign_lee]

Well I got killed this week....-36 units...that hurt.

Owch.

[ensign_lee]

Damn Bengals...

[blade]

crazy ass week. seems like a lot of teams forgot it's December!
NFL potw 15: Dal at Was Dal +3

NFL potw ytd: 8-6 (Was barely covers but we'll take it)

NFL plays ytd: 60-36-4

Also like:
Sea at Ten Sea -7
Den at Buf Den -8.5
Cin at Det Cin -7

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL POTW
Skins got it done .. moves me up to 9-3 on my POTW

Overall NFL
NE dominates to easily cover, 2-0 on the week 19-6-1 on the year

early looks for week 15
Houston +1 (but will they lose to gaurentee gettin Bush?)
Cinci -8 (cinci gets back into the swing of things this week, easy indoor game should mean big points from their offense)
Seattle -6.5 (second best team in football should cover this easily right?


thoughts anyone?

[ensign_lee]

NE looks like a solid play to me.
Cincinatti I'm leaning towards as well.
I don't know where you got Seattle -6.5, but if you still have it, snap it up. It should be at 7 pretty much everywhere now.

I wouldn't bet on my poor Texans...

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL POTW 9-3 so far this year

Seattle -6.5 (bought a half a point down)

Other plays im on
Cinci -8 The more i look into this game the more i like it. I really think cinci needs to convince itself that they are a legitimate team after barely beeting the Browns. They like to be known as a "high powered offense" and i think they beat up on those lions this week in the dome.

Dont really see too much else i like this week. But you gotta love the NFL on sundays!

[ensign_lee]

I also like Pittsburgh -3

[Grand_MasterB]

NFL POTW 9-4
seattle blew that game

NFL year to date 20-7-1
Cinci made a joke out of that game.. i knew i should have went bigger on it


oh well... 1-1 on the week. the end of the season is so crazy in the NFL.. .i think i might just wait for the playoffs unless there is a game that i really like

[blade]

Week 16 potw: Oak at Den
Den -13
No LJ and a potentially huge embarassment at mile high

nfl potw ytd: 8-7 (dallas toss their playoff hopes over to Skins. how 'bout them cowboys)

nfl ytd: 64-39-4

also like Chi at GB U31

[blade]

NFL potw 17: NYG at Oakland
NYG -7.5
g-men are still playin for division title and 1st rd home game. giants linebacker depth is very thin but shouldn't be a problem against the raiders without Jordan. the raiders are playin for a draft pick.

NFL potw ytd: 9-7 (Denver again dominates at home)
NFL bets ytd: 69-42-4

also like Carolina -4
panthers control their fate and a win gets them in. atlanta is done but would like to play spoiler, 'til vick gets drilled a few times and gets pulled.

[blade]

NFL potw WC: Jacksonville at NE
NE -7.5
NE seems to have been playing for that 4th seed against jaguars, and got it.
NFL potw ytd: 10-7 (G-men host the 1st round game thanks to Tiki droppin another 200 yd. game. Raiders get the 6th pick in 06 draft)

NFL bets ytd: 72-43-4