bad play or bad luck? tired of 4th...

[konahead]

I've gotten a shitload of 4th place finishes lately, and I'm trying to figure out if it's me or just bad luck/variance. I've actually monied twice in my last 20 or so sngs, so I've gotta have a big leak... Maybe too aggro on the bubble, etc.
Pls review the end of this sng and give me feedback. This is typical of me going out in 4th lately. I'm usually the big stack going into the bubble, and still get bumped out... (btw - this is an $11 on prtypoker)

#Game No : 3314528878
***** Hand History for Game 3314528878 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18892967 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, January 04, 15:58:25 EDT 2006
Table Table 67257 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 10: Cousin_K ( $1505 )
Seat 3: NiteRaven78 ( $2380 )
Seat 8: konahead ( $3165 )
Seat 6: Bravehart123 ( $950 )
Trny:18892967 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to konahead [ Qh Jh ]
konahead raises [800]. < ---- too aggro UTG? Table was folding to 2.5xbb
Cousin_K is all-In [1505]
NiteRaven78 folds.
Bravehart123 is all-In [650]
konahead calls [705]. < ------ do you fold here with 4.8 to 1 pot odds?

#Game No : 3314530870
***** Hand History for Game 3314530870 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18892967 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, January 04, 15:58:53 EDT 2006
Table Table 67257 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 10: Cousin_K ( $1110 )
Seat 3: NiteRaven78 ( $2230 )
Seat 8: konahead ( $1660 )
Seat 6: Bravehart123 ( $3000 )
Trny:18892967 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to konahead [ 7s 7d ]
Cousin_K is all-In [1110]
NiteRaven78 folds.
Bravehart123 folds.
konahead calls [810]. < ---------do you call this? seems mandatory…

#Game No : 3314532699
***** Hand History for Game 3314532699 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18892967 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, January 04, 15:59:20 EDT 2006
Table Table 67257 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 10: Cousin_K ( $2370 )
Seat 3: NiteRaven78 ( $2230 )
Seat 8: konahead ( $550 )
Seat 6: Bravehart123 ( $2850 )
Trny:18892967 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to konahead [ Kc 2h ]
NiteRaven78 folds.
Bravehart123 folds.
konahead is all-In [400] < -----I have to push here, right?
Cousin_K calls [250].

Be brutal, folks. I'm tired of 4ths over and over again.... Should I start camping to get ITM until this funk wears off?

[johnnyBuz]

I think the bet of 800 with QJ is a bit too strong. Although, blinds are 300 so 2.5x BB is a pretty good bet, QJ just isn't the best hand to do it with. If two people went all-in, I think that is a pretty good indication you are beat.

If one of them has AQ, you are pretty much fucked. And any PP you are only a coin-flip at best, which some people like those odds and others don't.

[MAX]

I don't see anything terrible. 2nd and 3rd hands played themselves. I hate QJs on the bubble because I'm not folding, I'm not limping, and I trail any K/A. That said, you correctly assessed that you were behind but decided that pot odds justified a call. That is probably the only place you have a real decision to make (and the fact that if 2.5bb is folding everyone then why bet 800?). If you had gone 700 pre maybe you find a fold in spite of the pot odds (You KNOW you are behind, you can fold here. Looking at the HH, you would have still played the next 2 hands the same and still bubbled out (for what it's worth). Don't beat yourself up over this.

[konahead]

johnny - but they were SUITED!!!

just kidding. I agree with you, and this was simply a steal attempt gone bad. I probably would have folded to the button push, but the big blind made the pot odds so damn good (almost 5-1) that I felt like I had to call... I guess another example of where pot odds get you in trouble in sngs...

[johnnyBuz]

johnny - but they were SUITED!!!

just kidding. I agree with you, and this was simply a steal attempt gone bad. I probably would have folded to the button push, but the big blind made the pot odds so damn good (almost 5-1) that I felt like I had to call... I guess another example of where pot odds get you in trouble in sngs...

That's true, i probably would have gone for the steal attempt too, especially for another 450 chips. The only thing with pot odds is, I think a read an article on this site actually that said chip stack is more important than pot odds in SnG tournaments.

[samsonite2100]

HHs 2 and 3, as others have said, play themselves. The first one, however, is bad IMO. Bravehart is one turn away from getting blinded down to 2BB--where he'll go AI with nothing, and Cousin K is down to 5XBB. I know many people here favor aggression at all times, but there are times when you should just let the blinds do the work for you. At this point, I'm usually stealing occasionally in position, waiting for premium hands, and otherwise protecting my lead going into ITM.

[konahead]

well said - and I agree. I think that's a big part of my problem - too much aggression on the bubble. I am usually big stack or 2nd stack when it gets down to 4, but I haven't been waiting for ITM before getting real aggressive. I used to make sure I was ITM before pushing small edges but lately I haven't - and my ITM has suffered dramatically (dramatically is an understatement....)

I think that's the ticket to getting out of this slump. I wouldn't have really seen it had you not said it like that.

Thanks a lot, sammy.

[Alibi]

At this point, I'm usually stealing occasionally in position, waiting for premium hands, and otherwise protecting my lead going into ITM.

This is the damn truth. We're beaten over the head with "play for first, be aggro on the bubble" and that is very correct but passive play in EP is often correct

[vqc]

Hand one
Hands to consider when making this raise
1) Ur stack ( u are at 10xBB...)
2) other stack sizes (who are u willing to go all in against, what willl ur pot odds be when they do go all in?

I think this is an easy preflop fold.
I really dont think that u should be raising to steal with 10xBB if its not an all in becuase more often than not u justify a call with the pot odds and so on and so forth, even when u kno that ur probably beat. Its just a leak in my opinion.

Hand 2
I instacall.

Hand 3
Yes yes u should.

[zenbitz]

2 and 3 are fine. I push or fold hand 1. As played, you kinda have to call. Hey, you had 8 outs on the frop.

The problem with the 2.5x raise is not YOUR stack size (for which it's OK, but marginal) but theirs. Anyone who calls you is all-in on the flop at the latest. Why even let them see a flop?

QJs I think is actually pretty solid 4-way, and I probably push it no matter what. I might fold if I have been stealing alot and I thought I was going to get a call from AX.

But a call from AX (X < J) isn't even that bad... on average you are called by 1600 chips + 450 in the pot, 5:4 and you are only a 3:2 dog to AX.

5 way or 6 way UTG it's probably a fold.

[drmcboy]

all standard.

[samsonite2100]

Kona--thanks, hope it helps. Repeated bubbling out is the suckiest.