small pp, ugly flop

[badandy519]

$5.50 18 man, fairly passive table

PokerStars Game #3529545011: Tournament #17510901, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/01/04 - 05:55:06 (ET)
Table '17510901 1' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Soloe (2650 in chips)
Seat 2: hodNis (1045 in chips)
Seat 5: ak97b (2045 in chips)
Seat 7: badandy519 (4760 in chips)
Seat 8: Deaner74 (1085 in chips)
Seat 9: 1 Resin Ball (3425 in chips)
Deaner74: posts small blind 50
1 Resin Ball: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to badandy519 [3d 3s]
Soloe: raises 200 to 300
hodNis: folds
ak97b: folds
badandy519: calls 300
Deaner74: folds
1 Resin Ball: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Js Qh 5d]
1 Resin Ball: checks
Soloe: checks
badandy519............??

[johnnyBuz]

i would say there is a fairly good chance one of them either has a jack or a 5.

[badandy519]

so i should............?

and why?

[AHiltz]

You should check if they are a looser player or you don't know, or raise if they are tighter. A raise of 700 would thin the field.

[konahead]

You have a 950 pot that no one seems interested in, two face cards below a K that may not have hit anyone, and you're the big stack. Looks like perfect stealing spot to me.

I throw out 500-600 here and see how opps act. If they fold 1 in 3 times, it's +EV. But if you get called here, be prepared to check/fold through the river. If Soloe pre-flop raised with QQ or JJ, he'll definitely have checked that flop.

But I think that pot's worth taking a stab at....

[drmcboy]

I agree you lead out here. Very rare for someone to not bet AQ/KQ here in a 3 way pot. If they are slow playing you'll find out.

Plus if they check the turn you'll HAVE to bet, but then they may call with a wider range. Betting the flop maybe something like KJ folds.

[MAX]

Since bluffing is hardly discussed here, I'd like to throw out a question for discussion. If you are going to take a stab at this, would a full pot size bet make opp. fold second pair and thus be more profitable than a 1/2 - 2/3 pot bet? No black and white answer. You lose more when you are beat, but perhaps take the pot down more often when they fold a hand that they would have been willing to call a smaller bet with(like any J/5/pp smaller than Q that didn't trip). What is the optimum bet size and if you have reads on opp. how does that affect the optimum bet size (some reads may prevent you from betting but how do they affect the size when you do)?

[konahead]

I like a little over 1/2 pot size bets because I only need to win 1 in 3 to break even, and anyone willing to call a 1/2+ pot bet will probably call a 3/4 to full pot bet also. I don't think a pot size+ bet is worth it given how much you risk versus how much you gain... but I've seen a lot of players lately really overbetting the pot to take it down. I laugh cuz it's usually middle pair trying to rep, and the only ones that will call it usually have the opp beat with sets, etc.

[drmcboy]

lead same as you would lead with KQ.

[zenbitz]

I think you can bluff here... and you should bet whatever amount makes it look like you hit the Q. No flush draw out, so I probably bet 2/3rds or so. 1/2 might get er done, but there are some straight draws out, plus a J might call 1/2 which is bad.

[TLR]

I would bet 450, if someone comes over the top I fold.

[Muxy]

check.