Bubble-icious

[Genitruc]

Played in my first casino MTT (50$ buy-in) this week and was faced with the following situation at the final table which drove me a bit insane :

My stack : 14 000

Average stack : 19 000

Remaining players : 6 (1 relatively short stack - 9k- 1 big stack - approx. 40k and LOTS OF PARITY at the table ; all other stacks between 12k and 21k)

Blinds are 1k-2k

Top 5 spots paid, 1st prize represents my tuition for school, 5th prize represents a few more buy-ins to the tourney (extremely steep payout structure).

UTG I pick up KQ suited. For the past few orbits, preflop play has consisted of either jamming or 2.5 x bb raise. I have very tight aggressive image, one exception being blind steal ( which rewarded me with 3k and boosted my stack 25%) where I showed down Q-7 offsuit. Everything else I have shown down has been category 1 or 2.

I opt for the standard raise to 5k (over 1/3 of my stack). Player to my immediate left has been sitting at same table as me for duration of tourney (5 hrs). He is an experienced b & m player and is well aware that I am a casino rookie. His stack is approx. 18k. He glances over at me and jams. Fold all the way back to me who is now staring at a pot of 5k + 3k (blinds) + 14k... I am getting approx. 2.5 - 1 on my remaining 9k.

I don't like my hand. I don't want to go out of my first tournament on the bubble with a hand that is quite possibly dominated. This player hasn't made a SINGLE move at me all day. In fact, he has laid down powerful hands to my raises and continuation bets on more than one occasion. He has opened up his play over the last hour or so, but I still feel that for him to do this against me, he must be VERY strong. I am very scared of being up against ak suited, aa or kk.

Can I afford to lay this hand down 6-handed? Is it humanly possible? Did I just make the biggest mistake of my short poker career by raising and not jamming with my hand? Or would simply folding it right away have been the best play?

As I think back on the hand, I now see no reason why my opponent would have jammed with A-A. He may have held K-K, but I now believe that his most likely cards were big slick or some sort of pocket pair (J-J maybe?).

Obviously, I am drawing pretty slim against A-K and am in a coin flip situation again an underpair. This hand simply tore me apart. I mulled over my decision for a full 3 minutes and laid down my high suited connectors reluctantly, hoping I had just avoided a terrible situation and that a better one would come around soon enough that I wouldn't blind out.

On the very next hand, I called the short(er) stack's jam with K-J suited and lost a race against A-6 offsuit. Busted out on the hand after that (small blind put me AI) in 6th place... Disgusting.

Is there anyone out there who thinks I came anywhere close to doing ANYTHING right with my suited K-Q? Or is this the worst rookie-play you guys have heard of in a long time? Guy later told me that he jammed with 4-4. I'm not sure if I believe him, but it's a pretty disgusting prospect nonetheless... Not that that would be any worse or better than folding to J-J, but it hurt my fragile ego to think I'd laid down to a low pocket pair with all that cash in the pot.

What do the more experienced MTT players think of this situation where so many factors (paying out vs. bubbling, pot-odds, likelyhood of being dominated short-handed, etc.) come into play? Should I have just called no matter WHAT I put him on since taking down that pot would have give me a realistic shot at winning the whole thing?

[drmcboy]

Especially since you seem like you want to play to win, you should call with the KQ. Why try and limp to 5th when the money is up top?


You should fold if you aren't ready to play for all your chips IMO.

Mathematically, you need to be almost sure he has AK, KK, AA to fold getting the price you had. That is sorta counter balanced by the pay out, but you didn't mention when the jump is. If 4-1 is good $$$, you could maybe lean to a fold . If you need to finish 1 or 2 to get paid, you're going to have to double up once to have a chance and I think you must play the KQ.


Reasons to open push rather than raise:

May fold a lot of A highs/low pps that will move in on you if you don't push. Winning blinds is a great result.

Don't have to worry about being stopped and go'd from the blinds if you whiff.

No decision poker!

Reason to raise and not push:

sets you up to raise with good hands as well. Nothing is move obv. than a shorty who has pushed twice in two orbits, then suddenly tosses out 2.5x.

[Genitruc]

" Nothing is move obv. than a shorty who has pushed twice in two orbits, then suddenly tosses out 2.5x.[/quote]"

Yeah... No kidding. This is exactly why I put him on huge cards ; I had pushed once per orbit for the past 3 orbits. I now come in with the "suspicious-looking" raise and he jams...

Thanks for the feedback. Immediately after busting out in sixth, I wanted to vomit at the thought that I hadn't pushed or folded the KQ.

BTW, the payouts were as follows (from 5th to 1st) : 150-300-500-950-1700 (weird structure, I know...), so fear of being dominated definitely got in the way of sound judgement.

[Rondavu]

Drmcboy had it right. When you decide to enter a pot in this spot with KQs, you've basically decided that if someone else behind you has a better hand, then so be it. You have to call in that spot. Play to win.

Let me tell you about a hand I had in MTT the other day. The blinds were up to 600/1200. I stole this one guys BB two orbits in a row. The first time was a pure steal, and the second time I had AQ. He told me to knock it off or he was gonna push. He was getting literally pissed. I had about 16K, and he had about 11K. So the next orbit comes around, and I catch A3 when this guy is in the BB again. I make it 3600 to go, since I don't give a shit about him, and he pushes for 11K total. I though about it and called. It was just too likely I was ahead, and there was about 16K in the pot. He turned over 83s.

When making choices, think about what is driving your opponents decisions. This guy made it hard for you, since it was the first time he challenged you, and he was pretty tight. Maybe what you were putting him on had nothing to do with your perception of him, but his perception of you. Why did he push 44 in that spot? Did he feel an excessive amount of fold equity on his side? Was he just taking a chance? Did he look anxious? That could indicate a sense of urgency. I will avoid a more relaxed opponent in live play, when the blinds get high. Make sure that when you're mulling over a decision for a lot of chips, that you're not just thinking about cards. Think about the psychology of the situation as well. An opponents range is influenced by it. The fact is he could have any pocket pair and be ahead. You may have busted the hand before anyway. Not that you should have called with Kojack in the last spot.

[zenbitz]

Push pre-flop and save your self the agony. KQ monster opener 6-way.

I can fold this with 6 players left if I think I can out play them.... but I woulda pushed so I would just cry when he flips over an A.

[Genitruc]

Rondavu said : "Why did he push 44 in that spot? Did he feel an excessive amount of fold equity on his side? Was he just taking a chance? Did he look anxious? That could indicate a sense of urgency. I will avoid a more relaxed opponent in live play, when the blinds get high. Make sure that when you're mulling over a decision for a lot of chips, that you're not just thinking about cards. Think about the psychology of the situation as well. "

He was bb when I stole and showed Q-7 o... but my assessment of the situation was that he WANTED me to think he was tilting by jamming. As I was stewing over my decision, dood kept telling me "easy call... easy call". But I probably overanalyzed everything.

Thanks for the feedback.

[Genitruc]

Push pre-flop and save your self the agony. KQ monster opener 6-way.

I can fold this with 6 players left if I think I can out play them.... but I woulda pushed so I would just cry when he flips over an A.

Yeah... If the only reason to fold is that people can be outplayed, I should've definitely pushed. With the blinds as high as they were, there was no "play" at all to the game. We might as well have been playing the slots.