Don't Double Down when betting alot on a sticky bonus?

[daluchy]

Well I was thinking about it and double down just allows you to make more money on a hand, but it does ruin your chance to actually win the hand.

So let's say I decide to put $200 in a hand from a $300 bonus + $100 initial and I get dealt 11 vs. a safe card, I should not double down just incase I hit a two or something?

Also along this line of thinking, splitting is still a good idea though if the proper situation arises on the $200 bet?

[MAX]

When you double down, it is because you are actually a favorite in the hand and it is correct to get as much money in as possible. Sometimes you split when you are an underdog but splitting makes you less of one. I would almost argue that passing on the split when you have say 88 vs 9 showing might be better. But ultimately, I think following the proper strat chart will be the best route (added bonus: no second guessing yourself). I must also add that when I do a sticky, I like to bet it all on the first hand when allowed. Very interested in the best strat to maximize sticky value if anyone knows it.

[eeeee]

Sticky considerations are:

• does the bonus disappear after w/d? (sticky type I)
  or can you keep playing with it? (type II)
  will unapproved games cancel your bonus or
  are unapproved games merely ignored when counting the WR?

Sticky Type One

• double up,
  then carefully work on the wagering requirement,
  w/d.
  If your balance is below w/d target after working on the bonus, double up again.

Sticky Type Two

• you carefully work the wagering requirement,
  w/d,
  then double up, and keep w/d'ing every time you make some withdrawable cash.

How to Double up:

• If you are allowed, you double up with one big bet on an unweighted 50/50 game (craps, baccarat, roulette, war).
  If you are not allowed to use the unapproved games at all, you Martingale using Blackjack, (so you have some reserves for splits and doubles). BJ is a weighted game that allows you to 'catch up' by winning big every few hands through doubling, spliting, or hitting BJ -- BJ is less weighted than other bonus hunter games like VP and Pontoon.

How to Bigbet Martingale:

• Use 1/7th of your stack to bet, then double the bet if you lose. If you win, return to the 1/7the bet size. For example, if you have $400 ($100 yours, $300 theirs) then bet $57. If you lose, bet $114. If you lose, put it all in ($229).

Stickies to avoid:

• Type one stickies that offer less than match bonus.

[MAX]

eeeee-

I just wanted to confirm- Using the Martingale method and starting at 1/7 stack will get you to double up more often then simply letting it ride on one hand, the difference being that you are afforded the opp. to split double when you are not ai. It makes more sense to me than the argument that you should bet half your stack so that you have the option to double/split. It also helps you reach the wager requirement quicker, as you will have played much more than 1x through your stack by the time you reach your goal. A nice little bonus that would tip the scales even if meeting your goal %s were even. But just to confirm, it is mathematically provable that using the Martingale method and starting at 1/7 will get you there more often?

Thanks for the great response.

[Rabid Dog]

One thing I always wondered about stickies. Are they a one time bonus? Meaning, say you bust the whole bonus using the bet it all theory. Can you reload and redo the bonus? Or is the bonus overwith for you. Same as if you put it all in and win big. Then play out your wr and withdraw. Can you go back at a later date and do the bonus all over again, or are you done with the bonus?

Hope that made sense.

[MAX]

Rabid, the terms usually state it is a first deposit bonus, 2nd deposit bonus, 1st deposit each month etc.

[Rabid Dog]

MAX, Thanks, I always seem to forget about those T&C's.

[eeeee]

eeeee-

I just wanted to confirm- Using the Martingale method and starting at 1/7 stack will get you to double up more often then simply letting it ride on one hand, the difference being that you are afforded the opp. to split double when you are not ai. It makes more sense to me than the argument that you should bet half your stack so that you have the option to double/split. It also helps you reach the wager requirement quicker, as you will have played much more than 1x through your stack by the time you reach your goal. A nice little bonus that would tip the scales even if meeting your goal %s were even. But just to confirm, it is mathematically provable that using the Martingale method and starting at 1/7 will get you there more often?

Thanks for the great response.

Bet size does not change EV.
Changes in bet size changes Variance.


EV is not a real result, it is the top of a bell curve. With a sticky, we don't want the bell curve, we want the ends of the bell curve -- double or bust. Bet size does not change Expected Value.


Increases in variance will change a bell curve from this
)
to this
[
Changes in bet size changes variance, not expected value.

With a 1600WR and a $100 deposit, your EV is $92. You can make $1 bets or $40 bets, but the average win will be $92. Three hands or 1 hand, EV is $92. But we are talking about stickies here, so we are purposely messing with variance.

By jacking up the variance with a whole-stack bet, we are pressing the outcome to the extremes of the bell curve -- double or bust. [

The decreased betsize of the Martingale in the StickyOne method is merely to accomodate the double/split strategy of BlackJack. That is the only purpose. Because of the decrease betsize, you will have more frequent "average" results, closer to the EV of $92. So we keep going back at the bet, trying to push to the extremes of the bell curve, double or bust.

So, yes, you will bust less often with Martingale if you are willing to stop before you double up. Otherwise, you are merely working harder to achieve the desired result -- double or bust.

With these big stickies ($100/$200), the usual assumption is that a player wants to double up to $600 so they can w/d $400. A player can accept a lower target, say to push his stack to $400 so he can w/d $200. Then he certainly will bust less with a smaller bet size.




I usully avoid stickies, because I wish I could make my bell curve look like this
}
or this
>

[daluchy]

[bSticky Type Two

• you carefully work the wagering requirement,
  w/d,
  then double up, and keep w/d'ing every time you make some withdrawable cash.

What are good sticky type two places? i have not seen any anywhere

[eeeee]

Sticky Type Two

• you carefully work the wagering requirement,
  w/d,
  then double up, and keep w/d'ing every time you make some withdrawable cash.

What are good sticky type two places? i have not seen any anywhere

I don't know of any good ones anymore -- that doesn't mean there aren't any, just that I don't know about them. history lesson to follow -- There were three casino groups that I was aware of that had decent type2's -- two of them (Casino Rewards Group, Casino Action Group) changed to regular bonuses with higher WR and the third (Sun Casinos NV group), just jacked their terms until it's not worth anyones time or effort. Then there are some that were always bad or questionable, like w i n w a r d -- don't do it -- you can't even understand their T&C's .

The tip-offs to a type 2 bonus are terms like "separate bonus account" and "bonus chips remain in the account and cannot be withdrawn", or may appear as a withdrawal maximum or account minimum balance.

[daluchy]

Hmm well I just tried the 1/7 Martingale on my first sticky. I busted with $600 more WR to go.

I'm still debating whether I should of stayed on 15 after 5 cards or hit...i mean if I stayed I would of won, but that's just an afterthought.

I'll try again, I wanna score one of these stickies.

[eeeee]

Hmm well I just tried the 1/7 Martingale on my first sticky. I busted with $600 more WR to go.

I'm still debating whether I should of stayed on 15 after 5 cards or hit...i mean if I stayed I would of won, but that's just an afterthought.

I'll try again, I wanna score one of these stickies.

Again, if you are allowed to play some other low variance game to double up, even a game that doesn't count toward your wagering requirement, that is preferable to the Martingale and BJ. Baccarat, War, Roulette, VP doubleup, Craps.

[daluchy]

Nope, they even tell you over the phone you can't play those games, lol.

Well I busted out of Golden Palace/Grand Casino stickies...that -$200. Sigh. Martingale just didn't work out too well.

Luckily I made +$210 at intercasino to balance that out, however I have to wait like 10 days for them to send me an ID by snail mail so I can withdrawl.

[MAX]

Daluchy,

You said that you busted using Martingale w/$600 WR left. You should only use Martingale until you reach your target. Say your target is doubling up, you martingale until you have doubled your stack. At that point you flat bet small to clear the WR.

Sorry if you already knew this, it just sounded like you might have been running the Martingale all the way str8 through.

[daluchy]

Nope wasn't even close to doubling up sadly. I probably got +100 at most. I just had a bad run

The dealer got BJ twice in the first 4 hands on my first sticky attempt, lol