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Why is the answer always Push?
I push the flop to try to take it down immediately - making it abundantly clear to anybody who might be holding the Ad that you've got a made hand.
WHY?
At this point there is exactly ONE card in the deck that can beat you? Here is what I see going on:
You are sitting there with 3,265 chips remaining and have to put in 400 to win 1,800.
Mrzz, the chip leader, put out a pot sized bet after checking the BB. You can't put him on a pair higher than 10's or he would have raised pre-flop. Would he have bet pot if he flopped a set against a flush board? Possibly, but he could also have something like 7x and wants to take the pot down before someone can complete a 4 flush.
Maui's call on the flop just messes with my head. He is so short stacked that if he has ANY sort of hand he should have pushed. Of course, this could be the exact reason why he is short stacked in the first place. My guess is that he has a high Diamond (possibly even the A) and is hoping to complete the flush.
Wouldn't the goal here be to make either one of these two players add more chips to the pot while making a bad decision?
If you push you are raising the bet 2,865 (3,265 minus the 400 call) and creating a pot of 4,665.
Mrzz is now getting considerably less than 2 to 1 odds and will most certainly fold unless he has something big. Let's assume he would fold in that case.
That would leave Maui with having to call a 1,200 bet to make 3,000 (1,800 original plus your 1,200). He is now getting less than 3 to 1 odds so if he calls he is making an unprofitable move even if he is holding something like AdJs. However, he may still be compelled to call and hope to double up.
In that scenario, if your hand holds up you end up with 4,200 chips while if you lose you end up with 2,065.
Now, let's say you raise it up to 2,000.
Mrzz now has to put in 1,600 to win 3,800, again less than 3 to 1 and again would be a mistake unless he has a made hand. He MAY, however decide that you are trying to steal the pot and push you all-in (which I would think you want). Let's assume he does that.
Now, Maui is looking at putting in 1,200 to make 5,200 so this should be an automatic call with just about anything (which he should have SOMETHING here to call the original 400 bet). Let's assume he does call and you follow by calling mrzz' bet and put in your remaining 1,265.
There is now a main pot with 6,400 in it and a side pot with another 2,530.
Now, if your hand holds up, you take away 8,930 chips and if you beat Mrzz but lose to Maui you take back 2,530 chips.
In either situation if Mrzz calls your bet and beats you, you are out.
Am I missing something here or is the second scenario more profitable? Even if Mrzz just calls your bet on the flop, you could then push in on the turn with the same results.
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