Bad Leak in my MTT play fixed....

[Laeelin]

I think I've been willing to go (or call) all in when i should be calling or folding.

I'm not talking about getting all in preflop with junk, i'm talking about hands like AK, JJ (even QQ against some players).

As much as I hate to say it, I need more Phil Hell-mouth in my game. In the TOC he said something that impressed me...

It's down to like 4 players and he is doing his normal brat ranting... "I've never been all in this entire tounrament!"

That impressed me.

Halfway into the final table, and he still has not been all in... And thats against some of the best players in the world.

Thoughts?

[SteveO]

That is all well and good in a big buy-in where chips are deep and blind levels are much slower.

Online, you often find yourself having to push and call AI in marginal situations just because of the constant increasing pressure. In fact, moving AI and trapping someone to get them AI and calling your AI is the way to go in online tournaments.

If you can help it you should never go AI and just outplay your opponents. However, it is a very rare occassion indeed for you to have the luxury of not getting committed to pots online.

[Laeelin]

Online, you often find yourself having to push and call AI in marginal situations just because of the constant increasing pressure. In fact, moving AI and trapping someone to get them AI and calling your AI is the way to go in online tournaments.

If you can help it you should never go AI and just outplay your opponents. However, it is a very rare occassion indeed for you to have the luxury of not getting committed to pots online.

After the blinds are big compaired to stacks, then sure, but before then I think it's a mistake.

When I win/lose a MTT I note why.. and a LOT of thoes notes say things like "Reraised all in preflop with AK, he had QQ, nothing hit" and "Reraised all in with QQ and he had AK, he hit his king"

When you start hitting 5m-10m then you need to be looking for a preflop all in, but I dont believe that should be your preffrence (short of AA and KK) before then... You need to win enough coinflips after reaching the money that there is no reason to add in even more before then.

[Rondavu]

I've been pretty successful at MTT. I can say that I'd rather put pressure on tight players, steal blinds, and make moves on friendly flops than race 50/50's. It's just too easy to build through a diverse arsenal of tactics as opposed to making attempts at huge chunks without seeing a flop. I mean especially on a low limit buy in event, because people make so many mistakes. How many times do you simply get payed off after hitting the flop strong by a bad kicker or top pair to your two pair or set. Cracking an overpair because they play too slow and let you draw out.

It's like there's this huge delicious cake, but it has a big fence around it with dogs who guard it. Or you can just pick up some smaller goodies lying around unguarded, and leave with a bagfull.

There are certainly times to play push poker, but a lot of people overstate to themselves when it's that time. I finally won a 180 person tournament after failing at the final table several times. What was the difference? Someone here told me to play it like cash game instead of a desperate whore in search of a chip lead. It worked.

[Easy17]

i think also in that ToC i heard the Phil had won every showdown he was in or something like that. Obviously he has tremendous poker skills, but your point is well taken and i think it is a mistake that i have made also. Even if i have the best hand preflop, do i really want to risk a 60-40 early on? probably not.

[zenbitz]

Mmmm... desperate whores....

[runarM]

Hi, first post here, have read the forum for some months - and im impressed with the quality.

I have tried to change the way i play the same way as your saying, after leaving early (that is, around 25-35 in the 180 on stars, about average-stacked) with e.g QQ quite frequently the last weeks. Calling an equal or larger stack AllIn preflop with AK is not in my mind exept when im seriously shortstacked or smells a steal-attempt.

Then again you're putting your head on the block, when you fold those 3/4*BB bets to allIns too often, and that often leaves you with no choice?

--
runarM

[Sprayed]

I finally won a 180 person tournament after failing at the final table several times. What was the difference? Someone here told me to play it like cash game instead of a desperate whore in search of a chip lead. It worked.

Very interesting. Can you elaborate on this?

[mcatdog]

I finally won a 180 person tournament after failing at the final table several times. What was the difference? Someone here told me to play it like cash game instead of a desperate whore in search of a chip lead. It worked.

I don't get it either. Do you play cash games with 20 BB stacks?

[Rondavu]

Not exactly, but you can't allow yourself to tilt into pot sizes either. Keep in mind I'm fairly new to final table success. I'm definately not the most qualified at the topic. I'll give my take though. The blinds are usually 1000/2000 at the final table, or sometimes 1500/3000 with 100-300 anti. Average stack is about 45K at this point.

The first few times I got to the final table I tried to run it over. That is to say I was being overaggressive with a somewhat wide range (Open up with ok aces (A6s) for a raise etc.) I now find myself folding some of these hands for free, since a raise at this level is a committment. I found that patience and a healthy image are good virtues against the smartest players. If you catch QJ JT 55 and 77 back to back on the final table, you might find yourself busted if you're not careful. You see what I'm saying? It's these kinds of marginal hands that get you in trouble when a preflop raise is 8-12K in a pot that is already 4-5K from blinds and anti. I like to keep an eye on my relative chip position, and modify my range on the fly constantly.

I don't want to get too far away from the thread topic, so I'll just say that you'll run into at least 2-3 of what I call "bust hands" in a tourney. Be aware of this fact. You'll be in a spot where you might feel good, but you'll be in very bad shape. That's why reads are so important. I remember a SnG last week. This guy kept folding his SB to me with 4 people left. All of a sudden he completes, and I'm looking at AJs. I bump it up 4xBB to 400, and he thinks for a couple seconds and pushes. I have 1800 left. I'm shortstack. What is my move? It's correct to fold here. He just hadn't been aggressive enough up to that point. In fact, he had been downright passive. There was almost no chance I was ahead. You have to take your chances against aggressive players when you have a good hand, but watch out for tight players, and respect them without the goods. You have QQ, and a tighty opens up for 3xBB, make it 6-7xBB for a read. Know WHY you raised. You raised here for a read against a tight payer. If he pushes, fold.

So you have KQs on a Q96 rainbow mid tourney, and after continuing, you get check raised by a tight aggressive opponent for half your stack. Decisions decisions. I folded. He had 999. For those of you who find what I'm saying to be weak tight, you have to understand that the examples I'm giving are against solid tight players. Don't bet your hand oblivious to an opponent. Take your hand away from the mouse, and make a sound decision. You'll go deeper, and win more $.

In terms of a cash style at the final table. You raise AJs mid position, and the BB pushes. He's got you covered. It might be ok to fold here depending on the read, just as you would in cash game. Having a healthy image makes your decision easier, because it's less likely he's restealing.

[mcatdog]

Raising a bunch of mediocre hands in a row is bad poker. Calling a limp-reraise with AJ is bad poker. So you're basically saying, don't play bad poker just because you're excited to be at the final table. That's fine, but I strongly disagree with the idea that you can win an online tournament without going all-in a bunch of times. The blinds are increasing so fast that you're looking to accumulate chips in one of two ways.
1) stealing blinds
2) getting all-in with the best hand and having it hold up
With that size stack, the attitude that you can pick up chips by outplaying people post-flop, will more often than not lead to you just spewing chips until you really are in push-or-fold mode.

If I have a big stack (like 25 BB or more late in a tournament), occasionally I'll make a play at someone I think is weak. But that's far from the main way to pick up chips in an online tournament.

[Rondavu]

I think the point is being lost, and it's probably because I explained it badly. I'm saying the psychology of the final table is different. Patience is a huge factor. Cash game is a more patient place. That's what I'm equating. Stay calm. Play good cards. Let others get emotional. Let others tilt into big pots with the worst of it. If you raise AJs in mid position, and even get min-reraised, it might be a good idea to get out before the flop if the player reraising has been camping out. I think a lot of people will call the reraise, and then realize the pot is almost the size of their remaining stack. I think I'm starting to get to where I was trying for.

[Rondavu]

I'd like to also add this perspective. As you all know, there's a distinctive gear change that occurs when the anti kicks in. You become more aggressive with marginal cards in good position, and you make moves into weakness after the flop against easy victims. The first few times I hit the final table I didn't reshift myself. That is to say I didn't realize that instead of sitting at a table with maybe 1 or 2 people that will play back at me in my chip accumulation frenzy, now there are 8. I'd like to stress that the frenzy you go into after anti's kick in is an effort towards the final table. Once you get to the final table, shift gears and treat it like the oasis it is. You were previously accumulating for this opportunity, Now settle down a bit, play solid cards, build a good image, and look to punish people who are getting out of line. I can only hope this is well stated enough to get my frame of mind across.

It's more than just playing good poker. Tight aggressive all the way through doesn't get you to the final table often enough. That's what I'm saying mcatdog. Your points are valid. I respect what you're saying. You may be missing the point that you ARE in fact playing selectively "BAD" poker in an attempt to accumulate a good stack before the final table gets there (if you know what's good for you). By "BAD" I mean raising marginal cards on blind steals, which is actually good, if you are stealing blind after blind, and or outplaying your opponents after the flop. Also, you'll call that push with AJs occassionally, if you feel you could be ahead, because the reward is a potential trip to big $. I mean I called 3/4 of my stack off late in a tourney preflop the other day with A3. Was it bad poker? Of course not. The guy had 83s. I just think that needs to change a little once you arrive at the oasis. Where there's room for a little reckless previous to the final table, there is less room for that against the best players in any given tournament. They will bust you. You have a bunch of people putting you under the microscope, and if you get out of line, you can be sure they will play back at you, whereas before you could just avoid the wise ones and attack the weak.

[mcatdog]

No, I understand what you're saying. We don't make final tables every day, and it's easy to get all emotional and forget the mentality that got us there.

The thing is, AJ is a crappy hand. If you don't suck, it's easy to fold a hand like that. The OP was talking about hands like AK or QQ or JJ. If I'm in the yellow zone with one of these hands and there's a raise to me, I'm usually going to reraise all-in and expect either a fold, or to be ahead when I'm called. Against some players, I'm even going to go all-in with a medium pair or worse. I just don't agree that if you get called on a coinflip (or he happens to have AA that time), then you made a mistake and you should have tried to win smaller pots without going all-in.

Edit: didn't see your last post before I posted this. Thanks for going into more depth.

[Rondavu]

The thing is, AJ is a crappy hand.

AJ is only crappy relative to hands better than it. You're in a war here. You're seeking out edges and exploiting them. In the abstract, racing AJ sounds terrible I know. We're not in the abstract however. We're in a world of representation where the people late in a tourney got there much the same way you did, by getting their hands dirty. If you raised AJ, and knew for sure someone just pushed all in against you with KJs, would you call?

And yes, I feel like I hijacked this thread.

[Laeelin]

I just don't agree that if you get called on a coinflip (or he happens to have AA that time), then you made a mistake and you should have tried to win smaller pots without going all-in.

Unless your talking about being shortstacked, or having KK, then I dont agree..

This has made a huge diffrence in my sucess rate (or I just happened to hit a lucky streak)

I have played 5 of the 180's after making this change in my game..

In thoes 5 I have placed: 1, 12, 30, 4, 3
The 5 games before that I placed: 105, 64, 43, 99, 100

Naturally when your short you need to be more than willing to go all in, but unless your short, then DONT call (or push) all-in without a good read.

Sure your AK might be a huge favorite against an AQ, but it might also be against 98s leaving you only a slight favorite in a coinflip for your tourney life.

Note that i'm not talking about playing passively at all!

I'm more than willing to reraise (or even push all in) on the flop/turn/river with a good read... But not preflop without AA/KK ... any other hand is likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite

[zenbitz]

Sure your AK might be a huge favorite against an AQ, but it might also be against 98s leaving you only a slight favorite in a coinflip for your tourney life.

I don't know whether this affects your conclusion - but your math here is bad.

AK vs AQ: 70:30 (actually 70:25 with 5% split)
AKo vs 98s: 60:40 (pretty much best possible non-pair holding)
AKo vs 98o: 64:36 (almost as bad as "domination")
AKo vs 99: 45:55.

It's the last one you want to avoid. You probably want to avoid the 60/40s for all your chips unless the blinds are high.

[stak14]

AJ is not a crappy hand 4 handed...just thought I'd add that.

Maybe against a limp reraise it is, but four handed I'll take AJ all day long.

[mcatdog]

You've obviously been playing great poker lately, so congrats. But I think your little heater is causing you to seriously overestimate the edge that it is possible to have in online MTT's. You should play 100 more and then post your results. Getting all-in as a 60-40 favorite is a great result. If a 180-person tournament consisted of a series of 60-40 races, you would win over 2 percent of the time (in other words, more than 3 times as often as the field). That is a huge edge. You're not that good and I doubt anyone else is really. I think your reluctance to get all-in as a slight favorite makes more sense in a SNG than in an MTT.

Phil Hellmuth is a great player but I don't think he's at his best in MTT's with large fields, he wins tournaments like the heads-up championship where his skill at picking up small pots is much more effective. By comparison, Greg Raymer is a player who has always advocated taking the 60-40's that are offered to you.

[DBL0SVN]

Great discussion! Whether to take the 60-40 allins or avoid those near coinflips unless you're shortstacked. Personally, I 've had my best MTT results by being aggressive and pushing AI when I felt it was 60-40 in my favour. I don't get ITM as often as I should, but when I do, it's pretty deep. Been trying to play more postflop recently, but not too much success - I don't think I can match Rondavu's reading of the table yet

I think your reluctance to get all-in as a slight favorite makes more sense in a SNG than in an MTT.

Mcatdog - why should SnGs be any different from MTTs? The math should work out the same, so if you always take the good end of a 60-40 showdown, you should end up +EV at the end.

[Laeelin]

Sure your AK might be a huge favorite against an AQ, but it might also be against 98s leaving you only a slight favorite in a coinflip for your tourney life.

I don't know whether this affects your conclusion - but your math here is bad.

AK vs AQ: 70:30 (actually 70:25 with 5% split)
AKo vs 98s: 60:40 (pretty much best possible non-pair holding)
AKo vs 98o: 64:36 (almost as bad as "domination")
AKo vs 99: 45:55.

It's the last one you want to avoid. You probably want to avoid the 60/40s for all your chips unless the blinds are high.

.... a 60/40 is a coinflip. Not sure why you think that my math is bad, thats exactly what I said in my post... 60/40 is about the best your going to get unless you have them dominated (overapir vs underpair or AK vs AQ) and the only time you know for sure you have them dominated is with AA, KK dominates everything other than AA, so i treat it like AA... but QQ doesnt dominate AA, KK, or AK, so it's 3 times worse than KK... JJ is beat by AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ and no longer even close to a good pushing/calling a push hand.

It's all of them you want to advoid, your dealing with 60/40 coinflips (roughly). Why in the world would you WANT to take several 60:40 coinflips for your tourney life when you dont need to?

You probably want to avoid the 60/40s for all your chips unless the blinds are high.

..... THATS WHAT THIS ENTIRE THREAD IS ABOUT!!!

Naturally when you have enough chips even if you lose that coinflip you still have enough chips to recover thats a diffrent story... But when it's for all your chips, no thanks.

Getting all-in as a 60-40 favorite is a great result. If a 180-person tournament consisted of a series of 60-40 races, you would win over 2 percent of the time (in other words, more than 3 times as often as the field). That is a huge edge. You're not that good and I doubt anyone else is really.

A good players edge in a MTT is far larger than 2%. If my edge was only 2% I might as well go back to ring where I was making a very nice profit.

[Laeelin]

Also, I'm not trying to be insulting by saying this, so I hope no one takes this the wrong way...

A bad player wants the 60/40's because they dont have much (if any) of an edge without them... However a fairly good player will have a much larger edge seeing the flop (raised naturally) and winning there.

[zenbitz]

What the hell kinda coin flips heads 60% of the time???

It's a stretch to say a "race" (AK vs QQ) is a coin flip when it's 55:45. 3:2 is NOT a coinflip.

If you only bet on the right side of 3:2 bets, you'd be a millionaire.

[Laeelin]

What the hell kinda coin flips heads 60% of the time???

It's a stretch to say a "race" (AK vs QQ) is a coin flip when it's 55:45. 3:2 is NOT a coinflip.

If you only bet on the right side of 3:2 bets, you'd be a millionaire.

Tell you what, you take the right side of 15 bets in a row...

All 3:2, but if you lose one, you give me all of your winnings up to that point, and the game is over.

Thats a MTT.

Thats when being happy with a 3:2 is a mistake.

In a ring game, I'll put all my money in with a smile as just a 1% favorite.

But this isnt ring.

==================================

People refer to AK vs QQ or AQ vs 98 as a coinflip. Thats the standard way they refer to it on both TV and on messagebaords.

Sure it's not even, but neither has that large of a lead.

[mcatdog]

A good players edge in a MTT is far larger than 2%. If my edge was only 2% I might as well go back to ring where I was making a very nice profit.

I didn't say you'd have a 2% ROI, I said you'd win the whole shebang 2% of the time if all you did was get all-in as a 60/40 favorite. That works out to about a 250% ROI (and in tournaments with really big fields, it would be even more than that). You don't have a 250% edge. JohnnyBax doesn't even have a 250% edge.

Taking the 60/40's doesn't mean you're a weak player without much of an edge over the field. Taking the 60/40's is your edge over the field.

Mcatdog - why should SnGs be any different from MTTs? The math should work out the same, so if you always take the good end of a 60-40 showdown, you should end up +EV at the end.

Usually, but a SnG has an unusual payout structure because first place only gets 2.5 times more money than third place. There are odd situations on the bubble of a SnG where it's correct to fold even if you're a 60/40 favorite. Let's say there are 4 players left with stack sizes of

CO(800)
Button(800)
SB(4000)
BB(2400)

You have AKs in the big blind, CO and Button fold, and the small blind goes all-in. This is an easy fold. With the two small stacks out there, it's not mathematically worth your while to jeopardize a probably 2nd place as a 60/40 favorite.

[zenbitz]

Also, I'm not trying to be insulting by saying this, so I hope no one takes this the wrong way...

A bad player wants the 60/40's because they dont have much (if any) of an edge without them... However a fairly good player will have a much larger edge seeing the flop (raised naturally) and winning there.

Are you calling me bad??? <j/k>

Of course you shouldn't stick all your chips in pre-flop on a 60-40 if you (AND villain) have the stack to play post flop (skill goes without saying)

Even if you don't have the stack to play post flop (i.e., most of the time in an MTT unless you are in the top 10% , or it's early), then you might want eschew some 60/40s IF you are not feeling blind pressure.

I don't think there is any significant disagreement here... except with calling 60/40 a flip.

[Laeelin]

I don't think there is any significant disagreement here... except with calling 60/40 a flip.

Then your disagreement is with the WPT not with me

I can understand exactly what your saying though, 60/40 isnt even money...

It's just not enough of an edge IMO

I didn't say you'd have a 2% ROI, I said you'd win the whole shebang 2% of the time if all you did was get all-in as a 60/40 favorite. That works out to about a 250% ROI (and in tournaments with really big fields, it would be even more than that).

That doesnt sound right to me, would you mind showing your math?

I'm not saying your wrong, just that it sounds like something is missing to me, that doesnt sound right.

[mcatdog]

That doesnt sound right to me, would you mind showing your math?

I'm not saying your wrong, just that it sounds like something is missing to me, that doesnt sound right.

Sure no problem. Let's say over the course of the 180-person tournament, you get into 7 60/40 races with someone who has you covered, and that you don't gain or lose any chips other than in these races. If you win all 7 races (which will happen 2.8 percent of the time), you'll then have 71 percent of the chips in play. 71 percent of 2.8 percent is almost exactly 2 percent. In a 180-person tournament the average player wins 0.56 percent of the time, so you're winning the tournament 3.5 times as often as the average player. So I would estimate your ROI at 250 percent. Wait, I just realized that doesn't take the rake into account, so it's actually "only" a 220 percent ROI.

If it's a larger-field tournament, you would need to win even more 60/40 races to win, so your advantage would increase exponentially.

[Rondavu]

I feast on 60/40's every time I place well in a MTT. The key is to have a big enough stack to absorb a couple hits. In other words win the first couple 60/40's you run into. The whole point of playing poker is to seek and compete for a chunk of chips with the best of it. Whether you're racing or not is not that important. The thing is, especially in these 180's, you're not playing superior postflop poker with lots of fold equity against veteran opponents. You're playing "catch an idiot pushing A6o"

Do I want to race 60/40 in any tournament? Not if I can help it. My opponents usually force it though unfortunately. Let's be real. It doesn't happen every time. I make most of my chips by stealing, continuing, and showing down better hands without an all in situation. IMHO Phil Hellmouth is a pussy for not getting into 60/40's with the best of it. I mean if you want to avoid a big stack in this situation then so be it, but if a guy has half your stack, looks desperate, and you're looking down at 99 when he pushes. You have to call all day.

[Easy17]

i dont like taking the ALL_IN preflop 60 / 40's unless i have 2x his chips or i am short.

also, its a big assumption that you will always get in on the right side of your theoretical 7 60/40's. what happens if you throw in a couple 45-55 or 40-60 in there?

[zenbitz]

i dont like taking the ALL_IN preflop 60 / 40's unless i have 2x his chips or i am short.

What about 2:1s? Where do you draw the line?

also, its a big assumption that you will always get in on the right side of your theoretical 7 60/40's. what happens if you throw in a couple 45-55 or 40-60 in there?

Ah, then you'd have been playing poker, as opposed to theoretically musing on FTR.

You forgot the times you are an 75:25 with an over pair, or 67:33 with 2 over cards/middle pair.

[Laeelin]

i dont like taking the ALL_IN preflop 60 / 40's unless i have 2x his chips or i am short.

If you have 2 times his chips, then you not all in ... I didnt say I dont like him to be all-in, I have no problem calling an all in if it doesnt put me all in.

The thing is, especially in these 180's, you're not playing superior postflop poker with lots of fold equity against veteran opponents. You're playing "catch an idiot pushing A6o"

I'd rather play

"catch the idiot calling your AK down with A6 for most of his stack"

than

"catch the idiot all in with A6 and hope the flush and 6 doesn't hit to give him all my chips"

It's because they are so bad that you want to play a flop... Most of them are so horrible that you take huge chunks of chips without taking a coinflip...

You've obviously been playing great poker lately, so congrats. But I think your little heater is causing you to seriously overestimate the edge that it is possible to have in online MTT's. You should play 100 more and then post your results.

Not at 100 yet, but I currently stand at:
40.7% (11/27) are ITM
22.2% (6/27) I reached the Fnal Table
My ROI is an insane: 294.45% (yes, i know it's not going to stay that high)

Including all 124 of the 180's i've played (including before I made the change) my stats are:
21.8% (27/124) are ITM
8.9% (11/124) I reached the Fnal Table
ROI: 160.17%


Now I just need another 5,000 MTT's and i'll have some really useful stats