QQ line check

[bdawg56kg]

My reads on villian weren't too clear, and I had no idea how he built his stack. He seemed to be in a fair amount of pots and definitely wasn't nut-peddling from what I obvserved. Also, just from observing some of the table chat, it seemed like he was trying to be the table captain. I haven't had a lot of hands to play with, so my image is probably TAG. My hand is Q Q .

Texas Hold'em $2-$2 NL (real money), #1,699,687,791
Table Plano, 11 Jan 2006 6:48 PM ET
Seat 1: B_Rice56 ($219.20 in chips)
Seat 2: marys lamb ($21 in chips)
Seat 3: foppa1 ($150.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Milchyx ($278.20 in chips)
Seat 5: johnbgsu ($120.20 in chips)
Seat 6: x Matthew9 x ($23 in chips)
Seat 7: illern99 ($51.20 in chips)
Seat 8: _zorro ($424.70 in chips)
Seat 9: ohsotight ($195 in chips)
Seat 10: BigDawgAK ($256 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
illern99 posts blind ($1), _zorro posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
ohsotight folds, BigDawgAK folds, B_Rice56 bets $8, marys lamb folds, foppa1 folds, Milchyx folds, johnbgsu folds, x Matthew9 x folds, illern99 folds, _zorro calls $6.

FLOP [board cards 8C,7C,9C ]
_zorro checks, B_Rice56 bets $12, _zorro bets $30, B_Rice56???

Edit: I decided to take out my line on the flop and see what you guys would do here. So if you happened to see what I did onthe flop could you please refrain from posting since you know what already happened. Thanks.

[Fnord]

Either call and pray for a blank, then turn-screw him or cry reverse implied odds and just fold the flop. It's not a very big pot and he certainly has lots of outs...

[Pelion]

id probably reraise him then fold if he reraised again. I just got told off by fnord for doing that in the other thread though. Theres a good chance he has the A even if he doesnt have a better hand than you already. If he calls, then push a blank turn. If he folds then yay[/u]

[Fnord]

K would be a really fun turn card.

hmmm....

56TJA non-club (15)
10 clubs
25 bad cards
47 cards left
22 good cards

[Pelion]

K would be a really fun turn card.

hmmm....

56TJA non-club (15)
10 clubs
25 bad cards
47 cards left
22 good cards

ok you just changed it to a fold. The pots too small to battle against all of those scare cards.

[Blinky]

Fnord, thanks for the explanation.

Is there a reason why the other Ks are not considered "bad cards"?

[Fnord]

Is there a reason why the other Ks are not considered "bad cards"?

How often do you think he has Kx here?

More often than not, a K over-card is really a blank.

Furthermore, you also need to consider the posibility he already has you destroyed or is on a pure bluff.

...all that being said, I really like a fold here. Call if you must continue, but we're so in the dark about this guy. Raising would be horrible.

[Miffed22001]

i like this
Is 4bbs your standard raise? Id put you on a big pair here unless you always opened for 4bbs. In that case opp cant really bet OOP unless you're way bhind or he has every intention of sticking his chips in the middle. Its a horrible flop for a hand calling out of the blinds imo on most occasions when i suspect the blind gets defended by T9 JT etc or a real hand.
Of course there is the option that opp simply thinks you missed the flop and has decided to push you around the first time you really step into the pot.
So what would i do?
Either fold or stick it all in (fnord will not like that i know!) you're either well ahead or well behind. Its a flop thats asking to be bluffed, espeially considering what you've said about table image etc. I think this is one of those times where i say 'fine... eat this biotch' and stick em all in.

[Fnord]

you're either well ahead or well behind.

"Well" ahead of WHAT?!?!?!

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.4545 % 40.00% 00.45% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 59.5455 % 59.09% 00.45% { AhTc }

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.6263 % 46.57% 01.06% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 52.3737 % 51.31% 01.06% { Ac9h }

2,970 games 0.005 secs 594,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.6465 % 51.82% 02.83% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 45.3535 % 42.53% 02.83% { T9s }


5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.9596 % 49.49% 01.46% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 49.0404 % 47.58% 01.46% { TT }

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.4545 % 40.00% 00.45% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 59.5455 % 59.09% 00.45% { KsTc }

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.0202 % 50.05% 01.97% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 47.9798 % 46.01% 01.97% { 66 }

If you push, at BEST you're looking at a $500 coin flip if called.
No wonder these games are so good... me have over-pair... me think you on draw... me must be well ahead... me push... oh snap... me thinks you fish for calling and sucking out on me...

[Lukie]

you're either well ahead or well behind.

"Well" ahead of WHAT?!?!?!

A complete bluff, and that's about it.

[Miffed22001]

i missed the reraise
erm
fold, 100% fold.
or check raise. Either give the free cards in an attempt to defend the pot or just gove the free cards and give it up when they appear

edit: yes i arsed up!

[Fnord]

or check raise. Either give the free cards in an attempt to defend the pot or just gove the free cards and give it up when they appear

Good point (although oddly worded.)

This is a pretty good spot not to c-bet against a loose/aggro player.

...yeah I like that line best.

[bdawg56kg]

Thanks for the feedback guys. Here's what I was thinking at the time. I considered checking behind on the flop, but against this kind of villian if the turn is any kind of scare card, it gives him a free liscense to bluff me out of the pot, and I really can't do anything but fold. I thought a little while about folding to the CR, but quickly tossed that idea. From the read I had from villian, it just smelled like a perfect time for him to CR a simple c-bet on a very scary board. It was possible for him to be CR'ing me on some sort of draw, but I thought the possibility that he was doing this with air was not small at all. Basically I figured there was a very good chance I had the best hand, and didn't want to give up so easily. So my options are either to call or raise. If I 3-betted, I would probably have to make it something like $75-80, and if he pushed I would have no choice but to fold. But I had position and decided to use it and just call. Of course this sucks if he's drawing, but I think he probably gives up on the pot if he has air, and if he has a big draw, OESFD for example, he is less likely to be so push-happy if the turn blanks. And realize that a scare card for me might actually very well be a scare card for him, so if a club hits the turn, I think I can get him to lay down a set or 2 pair. Do you think this analysis is okay? Am I missing something? Okay now for part II, how do you play this interesting turn card?

FLOP [board cards 8C,7C,9C ]
_zorro checks, B_Rice56 bets $12, _zorro bets $30, B_Rice56 calls $18.

TURN [board cards 8C,7C,9C,AC ]
_zorro checks, B_Rice56 ???

[THaC]

I'd check behind... I don't think there's any way you're ahead with an A and four clubs on the board. If he is on a straight draw and rivers it... good for him for getting a free card, but that's about all you're ahead of right here.

[Fnord]

Here is why I liked a fold, we're at a loss to figure out what his check really means. NLHE is a game of many languages and we only know this guy sounds kinda asian...

Anyway, the A is probably the best club because it's quite unlikely he has the nuts. Hence I think we have fold equity. Something that looks like a value bet might be profitable here. Like 1/2 or 2/3 pot sort of deal. If you really have balls, push against his check/raise. I don't think he can call that without the nuts, but then again...

[Miffed22001]

I had another look at this after my two donk posts.
Its an ugly ugly board so whats best. Well according to the math we are nothing better than 50 50 here if opp has anything or any kind of draw. The worst scenario is to be up against T9 with one of those a club, meaning were up against a pair an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. My math says that makes us a huge dog. So as i said before i take a free card here because we have no knowledge of opps hand nor do we have a flush draw. Why do i say this?
Well yes we have QQ and yes we have invested in teh pot but we have more reasons to find a fold in thsi pot than a bet, so checking when given the option to do so is the most +ev here. Why? becasue i think we lose LESS in the long run. So we let the turn card come. If its nasty then we can easily find a fold to a bet, no harm done its like missing the flop. But if the turn is blank and opp bets i think we can find a check raise here. Again why? Well opp must wonder why we checked that flop, were we that strong? or were we stupid enough to check raise the turn with nothing. Really it should say two things. Either we were thinking enough to let opp define his hand to us on the turn, while we held something or we flopped teh nutz. Whateva it is opp now has a serious choice and thus has to define his hand to us. We bought our info. The other thing to note is that if opp has T9 as above here he is now a 60/40 dog, not great odds for us but better ones. basicaly we checked while behind now were gona bet while we're ahead. In this sense i think ive covered how i would play this theoretically. I cant say i remember being in this sort of situation before but after having a think thats how id play it. We cant defend second best hand (a possibility on the flop) nor can we define opps hand on the flop too much so letting the turn card come gives us most of this information for free, while oddly improving our odds to win the hand or make the most +ev decision on the turn.

[bdawg56kg]

I had another look at this after my two donk posts.
Its an ugly ugly board so whats best. Well according to the math we are nothing better than 50 50 here if opp has anything or any kind of draw. The worst scenario is to be up against T9 with one of those a club, meaning were up against a pair an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. My math says that makes us a huge dog. So as i said before i take a free card here because we have no knowledge of opps hand nor do we have a flush draw. Why do i say this?
Well yes we have QQ and yes we have invested in teh pot but we have more reasons to find a fold in thsi pot than a bet, so checking when given the option to do so is the most +ev here. Why? becasue i think we lose LESS in the long run. So we let the turn card come. If its nasty then we can easily find a fold to a bet, no harm done its like missing the flop. But if the turn is blank and opp bets i think we can find a check raise here. Again why? Well opp must wonder why we checked that flop, were we that strong? or were we stupid enough to check raise the turn with nothing. Really it should say two things. Either we were thinking enough to let opp define his hand to us on the turn, while we held something or we flopped teh nutz. Whateva it is opp now has a serious choice and thus has to define his hand to us. We bought our info. The other thing to note is that if opp has T9 as above here he is now a 60/40 dog, not great odds for us but better ones. basicaly we checked while behind now were gona bet while we're ahead. In this sense i think ive covered how i would play this theoretically. I cant say i remember being in this sort of situation before but after having a think thats how id play it. We cant defend second best hand (a possibility on the flop) nor can we define opps hand on the flop too much so letting the turn card come gives us most of this information for free, while oddly improving our odds to win the hand or make the most +ev decision on the turn.

Miffed, thanks for responding. First of all, I'm not so sure where you get T9 from. Sure it's possible, but so are a lot of other hands as well. What about a straight/set/2pair/flopped flush/air? Now against any other villian, I would seriously consider just folding the flop or maybe even checking behind like you suggest. But from the read I had on this villian, I thought there was a strong possibility he had air or a weak hand like bottom or middle pair, and was just trying to make a move on a scary board, figuring me to fold overcards and maybe even an overpair like I had. So I wanted to get money in while there was a pretty good chance I had the best hand. Basically I think your analysis is spot on if you don't have a read, but reads change everything, and you know this. Also, I don't know where you are getting check-raising from since I am the one with position on villian.

I think the turn card is very interesting. For one, it proves that villian wasn't CR'ing me with the A , which from my read he would certainly do that with. Also, if he was CR'ing me on the flop with a legitimate hand like set/straight/2-pair/baby flush, this was a terrible turn card and pretty much killed his hand. Not to mention if he was CR'ing me with air he still has nothing. Plus if you look at it from his standpoint, there is a pretty good chance that I had either overs with a club or an overpair with a club to call that CR. So I figured that even if my flop was a misread, there was a good chance now that villian really did have "air." Hence I bet $45 and he folded.

TURN [board cards 8C,7C,9C,AC ]
_zorro checks, B_Rice56 bets $45, _zorro folds.

I thought long and hard about my turn line, whether I should just check behind, as I might do with the nut flush, but the reason I bet was so that if villian had something like the T or J , he knows that he is vaunerable to a bigger bet/push on the river, plus the fact that he's out of position. If I check the turn, he might be willing to call $45 on the river with the ten or jack of clubs, since knows that's the end of the betting.

I think this was an interesting hand, and that there is many ways to play it. I'm not saying my line is the best, as I think both yours (Miffed) and Fnord's opinions are great and valid. Feel free for anyone to tell me what you think I did right/wrong. Thanks.