|
|
 Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Originally Posted by Pyroxene
Raise AKs from UTG. Assuming the BB has neither an A nor K and does not have a pair, he still has a 33% chance of beating AKs by the River. Why give the BB a 33% chance to beat you without making him pay something for the privilege?
Great point, but don't you think this is something players would only do/think about at the higher levels? I feel that $10+1 SnG's at PartyPoker have a wide range of fish, decent players, and pretty solid players. Most of the fish would just call the extra anyway if it is not too much, and in an 800 chip $15/30 blind, how much do I really want to risk with AKs, assuming 50% chance I don't even hit the flop.
On a side note, this brings up an interesting question, is learning to play and win successfully at PartyPoker a hinderance to your overall game? If you can beat the "system," you are not actually getting better at poker correct?
Should I be playing elsewhere, or at higher limits to really start getting better? I feel like it's a Catch 22, if I play at the low limits, I get sucked out alot more often and bad beats; but I don't have the bankroll to play at the higher limits, and it is probably also harder there anyway.
I am not God's gift to poker. But I play the $11 at PP and I certainly consider this. And I make a fair amount of money off the play. First off, if I am opening the pot then I treat AA/KK and AKs the same for raises. I also will randomly treat JJ/QQ/AK and even AQos the same though not always. So, my UTG raise says, "Hey guys, I most likely have AA, KK, or AKs; but I may have less. Anyone want in?" My big raise gets called. And the flop comes disconnected garbage. Out comes my 1/2 - 3/4 pot bet (assuming only one caller). That initial bet says, "Woohoo, looks like my AA/KK is still way good, anyone want in?" WAY more often then not, they fold and I win the money from their initial call of my preflop raise. If they call or raise, then I have so play the turn with care.
Consider your hand, AKs. Who do you REALLY want to call you?
You want ONE person with AQ, AJ, A-rag/K-rag (donks). You have them dominated. You have a 75% chance of winning at showdown. 3:1 is damn good odds pre-flop. Some people have a twisted hope that they will have 6:1 or 7:1. That is not going to happen with anything but Aces. Heck, KK is less than a 2:1 favorite against A-rag.
You want QQ and JJ to call you. Because if you hit TPTK you can often get them to bet a fair amount; those hands are hard to let go for some and if you miss the flop you can get away from your hand.
Who do you REALLY not want to call?
You do not want small pocket pairs to call you. Because if they hit their set you will usually pay them a lot of money and if they miss their set they will dance away from the flop and pay you nothing more than the pre-flop bet.
You do not want a lot of callers unless you are disciplined enough to treat AKs as a flush/straight drawing hand and be willing to ditch it to any show of strength if you only get TPTK.
How do you encourage small pocket pairs NOT call you? You put in a big raise. Unless a player can really read their opponents well (I cannot), small pocket pairs need to hit the set on the flop to be worth anything. I will certainly call reasonable bets if I have pot odds on strange flops, like holding pocket 4s and the flop comes 2 3 5 rainbow. But, for the most part, no set - no bet. The set will come on the flop roughly 1 in 8 times (it will not win all of those times either, remember that.) Consequently, a player has to be able to make AT LEAST 8 times the pre-flop bet when they hit their set to make small pockets profitable. So, to eliminate small pocket pairs, you have to raise enough that it is unlikely they will be able to get 8 times that amount if they win. What you absolutely DO NOT want to do is limp in early with AKs, giving odds for the next guy with 99 to call, which gives odds to the next guy with 65s to call which gives odds for the button with 44 to call. Because, if you do, all kinds of boards start being a disaster; what's worse, some of those disaster boards even look good for you (ex. A K 4 rainbow). If you raise enough that pocket 4s cannot be played profitably, then you can feel good about that A K 4 flop. But if you limped in, out of position, and got a lot of callers, you are going to have to pay a lot of money to find out that you are behind.
How do you discourage multi-way pots? You put in a big raise. Any hand can win. But, preflop, the better hand is more likely to win. So the better hand raises WHILE THEY ARE AHEAD. If others want to play slop, fine, you are getting the money in the pot when you have a 66% (vs QJ) or a 75% (vs Ax/Kx) chance of winning. AK will win UNIMPROVED against ONE other opponent a fair amount of the time. But, against 3 or more limpers, unimproved AKs is not worth much.
There are lots of times to be tricky. But, as a general rule, raise when you have good reason to believe you are ahead or when you have good reason to believe you can make others think you are ahead (the 44 is actually ahead of you slightly but a big raise will make him question that because 44 is WAY behind a lot of hands that put in a big pre-flop raise.)
Limping in with strong hands that do not TEND to to turn into monsters is just a good way to win a small pot or lose a big one. AKs MAY hit a flush, and it MAY hit a straight and it MAY hit a full house. But, on the whole, it USUALLY only hits TPTK. Limping in with it is asking to be called by a bunch of crap hands that either hit two pair or more (and you wind up paying them money), or they turn into nothing and get folded to your post-flop raise (and you wind up winning only the pre-flop pot).
And that has nothing to do with your opponents being great players. It does not take a great player to call a big post-flop raise when they have middle set; hell, anyone can do it.
|
Would you play this AKc differently?
Reply With Quote
(just kidding w you)
