A hand from last night

[chardrian]

It's from memory:

I have a little over 3k with blinds at 100/200 with a 25 ante. It's the second hour of a rebuy, and I'm one of the smaller stacks at the table.

I am Big Blind with Q3 offsuit and five players limp in front of me. The pot has over 1500.

I know that 3 out of the 5 limpers will fold if I push. My only worries are: 1)the UTG limper, limped a monster
2) the MP limper might call with his equally small stack because he thinks I am horrible (although my last shown push was with AK).

I would say I am pretty sure UTG will fold, and pretty sure that MP has a so/so hand like JQs or JK but not sure whether he will call or fold with a hand like that.

What's your play?

[nickthefool]

Check, then push when flop comes 333 and they all call with pocket pairs.

Sorry, i'm tired and suffering from stress of exams.

[zenbitz]

If all you are worried about is a monster UTG... then I think push. Q3 is not much worse than QJ against any real hand (AK/AQ/JJ+). I would be quite worried about MP though.

This really looks like a steal - at least as much as 3x open raise from the button.

I would be more inclined to push this from SB than BB. I can't resist the free flop.

[chardrian]

But free flop, I'm basically having to fold unless I get two pair or better. With that many limpers, I am very likely doomed even with a Q hi flop.

I also thought of raising to like 1200 to make it seem like I had a hand rather than a steal.

But checking here to me means I'm just giving up this hand (which might be the ebst choice).

[Sprayed]

Someone's calling your push with that many limpers in there. I may do it against 2-3 limpers but no more than that. If you had Q6+ maybe make a move.

[Turning Leaf]

depending on chip stacks of the limpers, i would check to see the flop. too many limpers to go all in and likely will get one caller. you have a whole orbit to find a better spot to get your chips in the middle.

[zenbitz]

But free flop, I'm basically having to fold unless I get two pair or better. With that many limpers, I am very likely doomed even with a Q hi flop.

2 Qs. ( 1 in your hand, 1 on the board)
10 cards in limpers 5 hands.
5 known cards, 47 remaining.

P(no queens) = 45/47 ^ 10 = 65%

So, you are doomed (3 outer) < 1/3rd of the time (sometimes you hit Q3). It's clearly +EV to push ... maybe not on AKQ flop. That would be ... how you say... dumb.

You are OOP short stacked, so you have no choice but to push... so that's a problem. The chance of a Q high flop is no more than 1 in 7 or so. That doesn't matter much because with infinite pot odds, it's worth it.

You probably double up if you have the only Q on Q high flop. You double up for sure on Q3 if you suckout. You are 2:1 dog vs. overcards/mid pair. 3:1 or worse vs overpair or AQ/KQ/QQ. Call it 2.5:1 against. Even at 3:1 against on a call you get all folds often enough to make pushing better than calling pushing Q high flop.

The equivalent of "fold" is check, push Q3X/QQX/33X flops (5%???)...

Ahh.... what if you check the flop and push the turn if checked around on Q-high flop! An extra 1%, probably.

[JeffreyGB]

You have some reasonable FE...so ultimately it comes down to reads. Do you have any reason to suspect that UTG limped a monster? I wouldn't consider that typical play this early.

How likely is MP to call with a random hand that dominates you? (assuming he holds that, how likely a play is it? I don't mind a push here, but I don't mind a check either. You've still got a bit of time before you're desperate and I've certainly hand tournaments where I came back from far worse by being patient (as I feel I should have done last night...)

[chardrian]

Like I said, i was unsure of MPs calling range. This uncertainty leads me to thinking checking was the best play. I pushed - he flipped JK, no love for me.

But I don't think my push was horrible either.

Now - my play tonight on the other hand - that really was horrible.