set vs. overpair.. tough situation

[spino1i]

I dropped the hammer on the turn against a suspected overpair.. but got a fold.. better way to disguise the set?

***** Hand History for Game 3419281087 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, January 22, 20:48:31 EDT 2006
Table Table 73541 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: NeonPloop ( $185.40 )
Seat 2: SlowRollin21 ( $56.55 )
Seat 3: Evil_Ecstasy ( $265.35 )
Seat 5: naeem_ahmad ( $192.85 )
Seat 6: PowerPrez ( $16.85 )
Seat 4: flopTT ( $200 )
PowerPrez posts small blind [$1].
NeonPloop posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Evil_Ecstasy [ 5d 5c ]
SlowRollin21 raises [$5].
Evil_Ecstasy calls [$5].
naeem_ahmad folds.
PowerPrez folds.
NeonPloop raises [$10].
SlowRollin21 calls [$7].
Evil_Ecstasy calls [$7].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 5h, 2d ]
NeonPloop bets [$20].
SlowRollin21 folds.
Evil_Ecstasy calls [$20].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
NeonPloop bets [$35].
Evil_Ecstasy raises [$100].
NeonPloop: i am allowed to have a big hand u know
>You have options at Table 69119 (6 max) (No DP) Table!.
NeonPloop: u got aces?
NeonPloop: or a set
NeonPloop folds.
Evil_Ecstasy does not show cards.
Evil_Ecstasy wins $210

[Lukie]

fold preflop.

[Alibi]

why?

[azureXsmurF]

I agree with folding pre-flop... raise and re-raise make small/medium pocket pair very speculative to me.

If you read him right and he has an overpair he only has two outs to beat your set, so I don't see why you didn't push, or at least call his raise. I'd only see him calling your flop bet with another set or an overpair. He's not even getting odds for an open ended straight draw, let alone a gutshot.

I'd say he either has an overpair (which I would definitely push against) or 99.

[bigredhoss]

edit misread hh

[Irisheyes]

Preflop I like because you act last after the reraise with a good chance of getting action postflop.

Maybe minraise the flop to make it look like you want him off his AK. When he 3 bets, you smooth call, check behind on the turn and push the river.

[daluchy]

Well it's all on the read. If he asking if you got aces or a set he probably was disciplined enough of a player to let go of his QQ/KK to any suspect aggression.

Another check/call and a value bet/raise on the river probably would get you more money with this player, but thats all afterthought analysis.

[donkbee]

I would never fold this preflop.

[EricE]

I made the same move yesterday and got folds also. It is fairly easy to detect the set in this instance because the board is all low. Your big reraise HAS to be either two pair, set, or over pair so its an easy lay down with KK, QQ, and a little harder for AA (since he may have KK, QQ).

I think a minraise stands a MUCH bigger chance of getting called here.

[arkana]

The other option is to raise the flop which will make it seem more likely that you also have a (smaller) overpair but then you obviously run the risk of losing him there. Few players are disciplined enough to fold an overpair to a flop raise though and if he reraises or even just calls you should be able to stack him easier. The flop call turn raise on such an uncoordinated board just screams set. Its hard work to stack disciplined players so you should make a note on the guy and try to move him off more hands since it seems he is unwilling to go the felt without a very strong hand.

Also there is nothing wrong with preflop, its not like you called the $12 cold - effectively it was $7 to win what looked to most likely be a $70+ pot.

[finky]

I agree with folding pre-flop... raise and re-raise make small/medium pocket pair very speculative to me.

But theres all those yummy overpairs to stack

** Game ID 595918662 starting - 2005-11-30 19:53:29
** Blue Turns to Gray [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- Gilberto1980 sitting in seat 1 with $215.00
- dei sitting in seat 2 with $199.70
- MsDeal sitting in seat 3 with $224.90
- f1nky sitting in seat 4 with $179.20
- MarcoAntonio sitting in seat 5 with $18.00 [Sitting out]
- ook_23 sitting in seat 6 with $83.90 [Dealer]
- Gandalf2000 sitting in seat 7 with $101.00
- SKIBUM867 sitting in seat 8 with $290.45
- TripGOD sitting in seat 9 with $178.50
- omoshiroi sitting in seat 10 with $20.00 [Sitting out]

Gandalf2000 posted the small blind - $1.00
SKIBUM867 posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to f1nky: 3 of Hearts, 3 of Clubs
TripGOD folded
Gilberto1980 raised - $4.00
dei raised - $8.00
MsDeal folded
f1nky called - $8.00
ook_23 folded
Gandalf2000 folded
SKIBUM867 folded
Gilberto1980 raised - $24.00
dei called - $24.00
f1nky called - $24.00

** Dealing the flop: 5 of Spades, 6 of Clubs, 3 of Diamonds
Gilberto1980 bet - $50.00
dei called - $50.00
f1nky called - $50.00

** Dealing the turn: 10 of Spades
Gilberto1980 went all-in - $141.00
dei went all-in - $125.70
f1nky went all-in - $105.20
Gilberto1980 shows: Ace of Diamonds, Ace of Hearts
dei shows: King of Spades, King of Diamonds

** Dealing the river: 7 of Spades
Gilberto1980 wins $41.00 from side pot 1
f1nky wins $537.60 from the main pot

End of game 595918662

[Robert]

Reraise the flop to 60. Like arkana said the call-flop-bet raise-turn bet sequense just screams set to a thinking player. Most players cant lay an overpair like KK or AA down to a flopreraise. When you raise, the hand probably goes down like this (unless he folds to your flopreraise, which I think is pretty unlikely if he has an overpair like AA or KK, unless he's a really solid player) :

1) He comes over the top of your flopreraise and you have him right where you want him.

2) He calls. If he bets the turn I just call and push the river (whether he bet or checks the river). If he checks the turn, I check behind, and he'll probably "valuebet" the river with AA/KK and you can come over the top of him. If he ends up checking both the turn and river I'll push the river anyway - cuz by checking the turn behind you have shown weakness which might confuse him enough to actually call your river push.

[johnny_fish]

3 lines:

1. call flop, raise turn.
2. raise flop, bet turn.
3. call flop, call turn, value bet/raise river.

With the last 2 you're representing 9x/TT/JJ. Against this player and with this raggy board 3) is probably optimal, although I usually play 2).

[Irisheyes]

2. raise flop, bet turn.

This is my choice. Even check turn, he has 2 outs.

[Lukie]

Fold to the first preflop raise on the first hand because the original raiser is $55 deep and is raising $5 UTG, putting in 1/11 of his stack. Unless you think the players behind you are going to join the action and happily pay off your set, this is a very clear cut fold.

Based on the rule of 10, you are going to have to average netting $50 on this hand to be +EV, which means a $100 pot minimum (AVERAGE). Not with those stacks.

edit: the math changes pretty dramatically with a lot of heavy multi-way action, but it doesn't change my opinion. Maybe on a maniacal table...

[finky]

Even if it is folded round, your'll be heads up against a shortstack with a pair and position, why not have some fun?

[Lukie]

Even if it is folded round, your'll be heads up against a shortstack with a pair and position, why not have some fun?

Good point, perhaps the baby pair will win a large pot unimproved too?

If you want to have fun in position, why not call here with 72o? And that's assuming nobody comes in behind you...

If the plan in this hand is to hit a set on the flop and try to play for stacks, cool. Also clearly -EV. If you are going to be done with the hand without hitting a set, it is a clear fold preflop. The PFR is just too big and the PFRer's stack just too short to play.

If your goal here is to have fun, do whatever your heart desires.