On the bubble of the $45k

[JeffreyGB]

I had a tight image, which is an argument in favor of this push, however I think the stack of the SB player makes it a poor play (he's likely to call with as wide a range as he did)...but that may be results-oriented thinking. Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #3738612844: Tournament #18469574, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2006/01/24 - 01:57:31 (ET)
Table '18469574 115' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Geeebers (75341 in chips)
Seat 2: mrbungle 69 (20320 in chips)
Seat 3: JGB146 (17320 in chips)
Seat 4: apestyles (70025 in chips)
Seat 5: jawad1 (87272 in chips)
Seat 6: troydamico (31530 in chips)
Seat 7: KidKicker (33764 in chips)
Seat 8: PaPaDoC719 (117146 in chips)
Seat 9: DoobMan420 (183064 in chips)
Geeebers: posts the ante 150
mrbungle 69: posts the ante 150
JGB146: posts the ante 150
apestyles: posts the ante 150
jawad1: posts the ante 150
troydamico: posts the ante 150
KidKicker: posts the ante 150
PaPaDoC719: posts the ante 150
DoobMan420: posts the ante 150
jawad1: posts small blind 1500
troydamico: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JGB146 [4h 9d]
KidKicker: folds
PaPaDoC719: folds
DoobMan420: folds
Geeebers: folds
mrbungle 69: folds
JGB146: raises 14170 to 17170 and is all-in
apestyles: folds
jawad1: calls 15670
troydamico: folds
*** FLOP *** [6s Jc 5s]
*** TURN *** [6s Jc 5s] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [6s Jc 5s Td] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jawad1: shows [Jh Th] (a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
JGB146: shows [4h 9d] (a pair of Jacks)
jawad1 collected 38690 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 38690 | Rake 0
Board [6s Jc 5s Td Js]
Seat 1: Geeebers folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: mrbungle 69 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: JGB146 showed [4h 9d] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: apestyles (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jawad1 (small blind) showed [Jh Th] and won (38690) with a full house, Jacks full of Tens
Seat 6: troydamico (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: KidKicker folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: PaPaDoC719 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: DoobMan420 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[vqc]

Did u have any idea as to wat calling ranges they had?

I can find very few calling ranges that make this push a +cEV move.

[JeffreyGB]

Did u have any idea as to wat calling ranges they had?

I can find very few calling ranges that make this push a +cEV move.

No. I doubt the BB would call with less than a good hand. SB and Button I didn't have any specific thoughts on. I definitely thought SB's range was more restricted than it was (due to the image I thought I had). If I had to guess I'd put SB on JTs+/any pp/any A/any two broadway. BB on AT+/99+.

[vqc]

with those kinds of reads
PUSH PUSH PUSH!!!!!!!!

i kept my SNGPT open for that entire time.

[WildBobAA]

Meh, I don't think I make this play with 49o. 67s + I think it's better. Ironically I won a flip on the bubble tonight QQ vs AK but i busted 75th when my TT lost to AJ.

[vqc]

with the ranges that jgb gave
he should push.

but obviously SB ruined JGBs plan.

[JeffreyGB]

with the ranges that jgb gave
he should push.

but obviously SB ruined JGBs plan.

So you give them a wider range than that? Hrm...

I really don't like this push in retrospect...maybe I'm better at judging on feeling than at estimating calling ranges. I think saying this was a good push also ignores the fact that I'm on the bubble (making it much more significant to stay in, given that it will take a couple of double-ups to make me even comfortable with these blinds).

[zenbitz]

Am I confused? JTs you put in his range... JTs is wot he called with.

How is this a good push if JTs is in his range?

Only the BB is going to fold any playable hand. Everyone else wants you out.

[Easy17]

i dont think ive ever been short enough to push all in with 4 9 off, image or not, steal or not. If im stealing, ill have at least some paint in the hand or live cards. wtf were you thinking?

[JeffreyGB]

i dont think ive ever been short enough to push all in with 4 9 off, image or not, steal or not. If im stealing, ill have at least some paint in the hand or live cards. wtf were you thinking?

Actually, if I had about double my stack, this push IS reasonable. The problem is that I'm too short and thus have no FE. Well, that and there's a big stack (two) to act after me, one of whom is in the blinds.

[chardrian]

he was thinking that everyone folded to him and everyone would fold as well. he needs those chips. The only reason not to make this play with your image is because you have a read that someone behind you will actually call with any two.

And I disagree that his stack made his range this wide. It was a poor call by the small blind considering that he is likely dominated and that's a big dent to his stack.

[Sprayed]

Man, everybody with J10o is killing you GB.

[zenbitz]

As SB I don't think I am dominated here. I think I am a flip vs small pair, or a 3:2 dog vs KX or AX.

And Easy.... sometimes you can't wait for paint. You hate a call when you steal with the bottom 90% of hands anyway, so whatever.

[Rondavu]

Risk > Reward in this spot. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Being a little bit more careful doesn't necessarily mean allow yourself to get blinded out. In other words, this was a careless and silly mistake in a more than marginal spot. You made a good read, and you wanted to exploit it, but sometimes you have to snap back to basics and say to yourself "Holy shit, I have 49 offsuit"