My Nightly 45K bustout hand

[WildBobAA]

Busted 14th tonight. Can I get away from this? Opponent was pretty tight, I think this was a pretty bad call. I can't just fold this can I? Ugh I'm so sick of getting deep in this thing and blowing it. AQ is the bane of my existence

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40000 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t1041060)
Hero (t462492)
MP1 (t412377)
MP2 (t533282)
CO (t1158062)
Button (t98452)
SB (t466453)
BB (t627565)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to t120000, 5 folds, BB raises to t625565, Hero calls t340492 (All-In).

Flop: (t1098057) 2, 5, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1098057) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1098057) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1098057

[johnny_fish]

Isn't push/fold better with M=8?

Btw, I was very close to some major cash too yesterday.. Bubbled 11th in a 20K 100+9 R&A with an ATs vs. K9o blinds steal..

Very annoying to lose an effectively 2000$ 66-33 flip

[Sprayed]

Isn't push/fold better with M=8?

My question as well. Why no push?

[chardrian]

This my friends is where payouts matter. If you aren't going to fold the AQ to a reraise, then I agree the push preflop is the move here. If you can fold AQ here, which I think with your read you can, then the 3x preflop raise was good. The reason? There's only 14 left and people are now tightening up big time - your 3x BB raise is almost always gonna take it down. If you get a reraise it almost always means JJ+; AK. Raising and folding here, still leaves him with 340 k - crappy M, but still more than enough to steal those valuable blinds by becoming super aggressive.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Being that you're so close to the FT do you see your opponent coming over the top of an EP raise with anything less than a PP or AK? Unless your image sucks or you have a read otherwise, people generally don't push in this situation without a hand. Personally I'd curse and fold. The possibility of being dominated scares me too much. Obviously you'd officially be in push/fold mode if you did, but if it had to come down to a coin flip I rather be the one pushing.

[ilikeaces86]

I love coinflips

[Miffed22001]

if you can fold it raise
If you cant push

[Easy17]

well said

[chardrian]

Dang miffed - you took:

This my friends is where payouts matter. If you aren't going to fold the AQ to a reraise, then I agree the push preflop is the move here. If you can fold AQ here, which I think with your read you can, then the 3x preflop raise was good. The reason? There's only 14 left and people are now tightening up big time - your 3x BB raise is almost always gonna take it down. If you get a reraise it almost always means JJ+; AK. Raising and folding here, still leaves him with 340 k - crappy M, but still more than enough to steal those valuable blinds by becoming super aggressive.

and made it:

if you can fold it raise
If you cant push

No wonder I pwn your WPP.

[JeffreyGB]

I agree - it comes down to reads. I raise 3x here so that I can use them. With the read you had on this particular opp, I might have folded and I might not have...it depends on exactly what I feel his range would be (you say tight, so I'm assuming he'd only do this v UTG+1 with a GOOD hand). I call here against looser opps.

[Gareth]

With those blind sizes a standard raise of 2.5xBB will do the same job as raising to 3xBB and if someone reraises it means you have lost less chips and can find it easier to fold.

I agree with the rest who say if you are going to call (for all your chips) a reraise then just open push.

[JeffreyGB]

BTW, I don't agree about open pushing if you're going to call a reraise. If I'm calling the reraise, it's because I think I'm ahead (even dominating) and I'm loving the opportunity to make a ton of chips. I'm not going to push preflop so that the only time I am called I'm in a race or worse.

Honestly, what hands that beat you are you keeping out of the pot by pushing preflop? AK is going to call if you push. So is AA-QQ. No other hands dominate you. Period. With a shorter stack, I push this hoping for calls from weaker hands. I don't think you can hope for that here, so I don't like the open-push.

[JeffreyGB]

And finally, for the record, I don't think you're anywhere near push/fold with that many chips at that level. An M of 8 doesn't mean push/fold. It might if your Q was tiny, but you've actually got a pretty large Q from the looks of things.

[AHiltz]

BTW, I don't agree about open pushing if you're going to call a reraise. If I'm calling the reraise, it's because I think I'm ahead (even dominating) and I'm loving the opportunity to make a ton of chips. I'm not going to push preflop so that the only time I am called I'm in a race or worse.

So, why are you raising preflop? Are you doing it to steal the blinds, or to coax someone into a reraise so you can try and eliminate them?

I almost think that a push would be read as a weaker move and you'd get lesser hands calling you. If you 3x and someone comes over the top, odds dictate a call, and if they are aware of this fact, they would have a stronger hand.

Discuss

[chardrian]

BTW, I don't agree about open pushing if you're going to call a reraise. If I'm calling the reraise, it's because I think I'm ahead (even dominating) and I'm loving the opportunity to make a ton of chips. I'm not going to push preflop so that the only time I am called I'm in a race or worse.

Honestly, what hands that beat you are you keeping out of the pot by pushing preflop? AK is going to call if you push. So is AA-QQ. No other hands dominate you. Period. With a shorter stack, I push this hoping for calls from weaker hands. I don't think you can hope for that here, so I don't like the open-push.

There's a difference between raising preflop with AQ knowing that you will call any reraise from any opp becuase none of them have super tight reraising ranges and raising preflop with AQ knowing that you will call any reraise but only because "I just can't let go of AQ." If the latter is your mindset, you should just push preflop. If you think AQ is best here, of course you bet the same way and call any raise. The only reason I said he could fold here was based on what I construed (and maybe misconstrued) his read to be. There are guys out there who will only push reraise here with JJ+ or AK - if that's your read you fold. If the range is wider and includes 88+ and AJ or QK then your call was fine.

And yes, as I've said before - people overvalue M way too much. The deeper you get in a tourney, the less M matters - as long as you always have 6x the BB or better, any preflop push deep in a tourney willalmost always get you the pot unless you run into a monster.

[chardrian]

So, why are you raising preflop? Are you doing it to steal the blinds, or to coax someone into a reraise so you can try and eliminate them?

I almost think that a push would be read as a weaker move and you'd get lesser hands calling you. If you 3x and someone comes over the top, odds dictate a call, and if they are aware of this fact, they would have a stronger hand.

Discuss

Raising 3x preflop also makes a big pot worth taking down at the later stages of a tourney. So it's a good time to come over the top of an aware player and represent strength against a guy who you know can fold just to take down a pot.

As with most situations, it really depends on your read.

[zenbitz]

And yes, as I've said before - people overvalue M way too much. The deeper you get in a tourney, the less M matters - as long as you always have 6x the BB or better, any preflop push deep in a tourney willalmost always get you the pot unless you run into a monster.

So the $45,000 question is... do you get too many calls raising < all-in when you have shiite and 6BBs.

Obviously, it depends on your Q as well.

[chardrian]

To me, the tricky zone, is when you have between 7 and 10 BBs. Once your less than 7, you just push. But you can raise 2.5 BBs with 8 BBs and still leave yourself enough cushion that when you get yourself into fold/push preflop action your push still has some FE.

It's that zone that also tends to make a big difference Q wise.