(15+1): J9s on btn... played correctly?

[thnwkd]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t1400)
UTG+1 (t1680)
MP1 (t1220)
MP2 (t1010)
MP3 (t1430)
CO (t660)
Hero (t1460)
SB (t2820)
BB (t1820)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, J.
UTG raises to t60, 2 folds, MP2 calls t60, 2 folds, Hero calls t60, SB calls t45, BB calls t30.

Flop: (t300) T, 8, 5 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks
MP2 bets t120,
Hero raises to t330
SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds
MP2 raises to t950
Hero calls t620.

[konahead]

I certainly try to get all my chips into the middle with someone on that flop. You have more outs than you can count.

[Khabbi]

I think you are an underdog on this flop to most of the hands that I would put the opponent on here (AA-TT, 88, 55). You have an advantage over hands like AT, A8, A5.

I think the raise was a bad idea here since you haven't made your hand, and you can't count J's or 9's as full outs (you have to assume that a pair isn't going to be good enough).

[konahead]

I'd put opp on AT, TT-88, or 55, and hero's got at least 15 outs. I'm pretty sure he's a favorite with two more cards to come.

Anyone want to run the numbers? (i'm not qualified.)

Where's our math sensei?

btw - I don't disagree with smooth-calling the flop bet and bringing a bunch of opps along for the ride, but my goal would be to get as many chips in the pot as soon as possible, cuz once the straight, or especially the flush, shows up on the board, you're not going to get a lot more chips from anyone. Just as glad to get all of someone's in now as wait and maybe not get anymore on the turn....

[shooter]

Had this typed up this afternoon, then lost my connection, so couldn't post it till now. Here's my thoughts.

Hands like this drive me nuts. Especially after the fact when villain turns over 88's and I have 450 chips left after hitting the flush, only to have the villain hit again on the river to make the boat. That being said, I think this is a fold for the following reasons (albeit one that I have a real tough time making, especially against a smaller stack):

- The re-re-raise indicates to me that you are likely up against trips. Maybe AT if you are lucky, or AdTd if you are unlucky. I don't think you are worried about JJ's or QQ's (I assume they would have re-raised preflop), and there is a slim chance that you are up against KK's or AA's, although I would think they would have re-raised preflop as well.
- If you fold after the re-re-raise, you are left with 1070 chips.
- If you are up against trips, and I think you are here about 75% of the time, you are looking at 14 outs, which means you improve about 50% of the time.
- If you are up againt trips, villian has 8 outs on the turn (9 outs on the river) for the redraw, and will improve about 30% of the time. I don't want to even think about what happens when the Td shows up on the turn.
- So, based on my bad math, if you call, you only win this pot about 20% of the time.
- Therefore, 80% of the time, you are left with 450 chips, and 20% of the time you end up with 2470 chips.
- So, by calling, you end up with 854 chips on average. Folding you end up with 1070 every time. Remember, that's assuming that villain has trips. If you include AT into the list of possibilities, it probably becomes more callable although I think it's still a fold.

My math could be wrong here, and I've missed some scenarios, so I would encourage others to verify the math and point out any flaws that might exist.

[Trikflow77]

i make a pot sized raise here....and call all in.....i try to get my money in now while im ahead

[zenbitz]

I think you want to play it as you did because you don't have nut flush draw. With 15 outs to the _nuts_, just flat call.

[thnwkd]

Good Comments. shooter im not sure if the math is correct or not because im not a math wiz, but it seems impressive so i will believe you

to the hand;

I think you guys are giving villan too much credit, this is the 16s and i've come to realize that we are mostly fish there.

I never gave opp credit for a set here simply because of the size of the bet. there's 300 in pot with 5 limpers, flush + posible straight draw and you bet less that 1/2 pot with trips?? I think not.

With 54% to make my hand by the river my reraise was more of a value bet to get as much of opp chips as possible since i felt he might just fold to a push.

[Rockymv]

With 54% to make my hand by the river my reraise was more of a value bet to get as much of opp chips as possible since i felt he might just fold to a push.

You should want him to fold. You shouldn't be looking for a coinflip. Just like you wouldn't be that eager to get you chips in PF with 33 when you're opponent is holding AK.

[Trikflow77]

I think you want to play it as you did because you don't have nut flush draw. With 15 outs to the _nuts_, just flat call.

no...he is slightly ahead here....get the money in.....i dont mind a call, but would rather him fold.....flat calling here sucks.

[zenbitz]

I think you want to play it as you did because you don't have nut flush draw. With 15 outs to the _nuts_, just flat call.

no...he is slightly ahead here....get the money in.....i dont mind a call, but would rather him fold.....flat calling here sucks.

You mis understood me. He does NOT have outs to the nut flush... so he should push. With If he had KdJd on AdQdTd board... no wait. AdTd on QdJd9s board, he should flat call. Or should he? That was just my point.

While you are probably ahead, you are only slightly ahead (with hand-as-presented) so pushing is risky if you don't think you have much FE.

[thnwkd]

Trik and Zen good points, I think i agree with Trik though. Lets say you flat call with the nut draw, if you make your draw on the turn will opp pay you off? if you miss your draw on the turn and opp pushes, then what?

As it turns out in this particular hand villian had 77! so any 9 or J also takes the pot. spiked a J on the river for the win.