KK with paired, flush draw flop

[swiggidy]

MP3 had been aggressive towards me a few times so he might throw out a bet if I check (I'm pretty sure I'm ahead here and would be willing to put all my chips in the middle). But, I'm worried about the board and 2 others. So should I worry about getting value, or just take it down?


PokerStars Game #3624436186: Tournament #17990469, Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/01/13 - 16:09:46 (ET)
Table '17990469 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: P-Tess (738 in chips)
Seat 2: Maverick550 (2798 in chips) out of hand (moved from another table into small blind)
Seat 3: onesonone (9002 in chips)
Seat 4: connie40 (3750 in chips)
Seat 5: swiggidy (4150 in chips)
Seat 6: Deeonlyone (9090 in chips)
Seat 7: Tony Tyson (1990 in chips)
Seat 8: Duns_Scotus (2955 in chips)
Seat 9: AceGamer987 (2720 in chips)
onesonone: posts small blind 100
connie40: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to swiggidy [K K]
swiggidy: raises 400 to 600
2 folds
Duns_Scotus: calls 600
3 folds
connie40: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [9 5 5]
connie40: checks
swiggidy: ???

EDIT: Stupid hand converter
EDIT2: Screw the hand converter, Only 2 in pot + me.

[gabe]

the pot is big enough that you just want to take it down

[GatorJH]

I would throw out a bet of somewhere around 1,200 and hope MP3 tries to steal it away.

[TLR]

I would bet the pot, I am more then happy with taking the pot down here

[Aplomado]

UTG posts a blind of t200.

???

[swiggidy]

UTG posts a blind of t200.

???

hmmm, fixed

[Blinky]

This is one that you want to take down right away, but is it a push?

Potting it leaves you with about 1500 - and if you get flat called on the flop all the money is going in on a non-A, non spade turn is it not?

[vqc]

This is one that you want to take down right away, but is it a push?

Potting it leaves you with about 1500 - and if you get flat called on the flop all the money is going in on a non-A, non spade turn is it not?

this is generally why pushing is good
u dont want to fold.

[konahead]

Push - you're not getting away from this if you're check-raised by sb, so just put them in now. Best way to get flush draws to drop it.

[taipan168]

Yeah, I push this - since you're not getting away from the hand if either opp re-raises or calls and you're willing to put all your chips in the middle, push now, particularly with 2 opps.

[baudib]

fold preflop

[boost]

In this situation you are clearly not afraid of some one holding X5, you cant let yourself be afraid of those low paired boards. So what are you afraid of? the flush draw? Is this reason to push? I dont think it is at all, someone could very well have X9, and seeing as that X is almost always an A, he only has 3 outs against you. If he is on the flush draw he only has 8 outs you know, and he thinks he has 9 outs. This is a prime situation to let your opponent make a mistake. I would bet enough to cancel his odds to call with the flush, so about 3/4 the pot is fine. If he is under the impression that his TP is fine, he is liable to give you all his chips on this hand.

Now the problem is whether or not you fold on a scary turn. Well what exactly is scary? We know that people are more then happy to chase flushes even with out odds, so if he has called you on the flop we are going to put him on 1 of 3 hands A9, some pp, or the flush draw. So if a spade comes, do you go running for the hills? No you are comitted, and he could very well be on another hand. If an A comes do you back down? No again yo uare comitted and he could be on one of the other 2 hands, and actually an A of spades is not such a bad card for you, he might still be behind, and even if he just hit top 2 pair, youve got 11 outs, if he just hit his flush you have 9 outs. And for the PP hand, theres no scary card that can come for that, if he turns his set, oh well, if he had 99 all along, oh well youre not getting away from that. So yes, Im happy with the pot on the flop, however this doesnt mean Im not willing to give the oppurtunity to make ahuge mistake. And if he does call and the turn card comes as a potentially 'scary' card, well Ive already explained why this is moot. When possible, always give your opponent a chacne to make a huge mistake.

[TLR]

if he just hit his flush you have 9 outs

If he hits the flush and holds the A spades then you have 4 outs, if he hits the flush and holds any other 2 spades you have
7 outs a better flush
4 outs for a full house
total 11

[boost]

oops, just woke up...

so yes if he has the nut flush vs you you have 4 outs, and I missed the 2 5's that are outs too. But either way the point is, you have plenty of outs if a scary card comes considering he could be calling you with 2 other possible hands in which he wouldnt have hit. So 2/3 times a 'scary' card does not have you beat, and when it does, you have outs. So I stick by the underlying point of my post, give the 'tard a chacne to make a mistake.

[Sprayed]

Push it.

[swiggidy]

In this situation you are clearly not afraid of some one holding X5, you cant let yourself be afraid of those low paired boards. So what are you afraid of? the flush draw?

...

This is a prime situation to let your opponent make a mistake.

I wasn't worried about the paired board, more the flush draw and 3 people left to act. I was debating between just taking it down and trying to de-stack someone. I bet 3/4 pot and everyone folded.

I like your reasoning because I play with serious tards.

[konahead]

It's ok to give bad odds and such when the pot is not huge and you're against one opp, but with two opps and the pot being 60% of your stack, just take it down now. If you try to give bad odds by betting the pot (2100), your stack is down to 1450 - what's the point? To get a call? If both opps come along and the turn is a spade, you're not sitting as pretty as you think you are.

Getting tricky when the pot's huge and you're facing two opps is a bad move. 1 opp - I bet 2/3 pot and push the turn. 2 opps - just give it to me now. Not worth dicking around with - no need to ask for trouble. There's a lot of chips sitting there. Take em.

[zenbitz]

the pot is big enough that you just want to take it down

No hate... but what is the definition of "big enough"?
I bet whatever bet makes them think I have AK-not-spades. Probably 2/3-3/4th.
I don't hate a check/raise or even a check/call here... you have the Ks and cannot be knocked out. Sure you will hate yourself like a 3-day hangover if a spade falls but hey.

[konahead]

My definition of "big enough" is if the pot is close to the size of his stack. In this case, pot's 2600 and hero has 3550. If he bets 2/3 pot, that's 2000, and he's not going to fold (i assume) regardless of the turn card. What is the point of not pushing? To give flush draw bad odds? And if the turn's a spade? You folding? You'll have a flush draw too.... Or if it's an ace? you gonna fold it with 75% of your stack in the middle?

And I just noticed that there were 3 opp, not 2. (Didnt know the sb came along from the preflop notes...) I like a push even more. I don't want a flush draw to even think about it. And someone with TT may just come along for the ride anyway, if he puts you on AK/AQ....

Hero's only got an overpair - why would you want to mess around with a pot that big? Too many cards can come on the turn/river that would make for a hard decision. Put the hard decision on your opponents now.

[zenbitz]

Hero's only got an overpair - why would you want to mess around with a pot that big? Too many cards can come on the turn/river that would make for a hard decision. Put the hard decision on your opponents now.

The decision is already made. You are playing this overpair for all their chips, no question. You are just trying to win the max here.

Now, maybe this is a rare instance where you want a flush draw to fold, because a 33% of bust is not worth the extra $$$ from bad calls. But I think pushing here is a mistake if you will fold f/ds. There is a lot of money still in their stacks - pot is only 1/2 connie40's stack and ~2/3rd Duns_Scotus. Try to get some money from AK, 88.. 67... whatever crap they are calling with.

If opps have 88 and AK - then they are going to fold to your push >80% of the time. Correctly. Give them a chance to make a loose, terrible call. If they suck out on you - you played it right! The only hand I am a little scared of (other than AA/99/5x which we are paying off if we push anyway) is maybe 2 of 678spades (fd+gutshot). They are calling a push 90% of the time anyway.

Maybe the push is better for table image, or because you think you will get more, WORSE calls... but you don't want anyone to fold here.

[konahead]

I just hate to get sucked out on, and would rather take down a pot that size now, regardless of if I could have gotten a little more out of it. Many a stack has been broken by getting greedy....

But I don't think either one of us is wrong. Just two different ways to play it.

[Bailey]

I didnt read all the replies because I am lazy.. but I would definately not push this flop..

Why are so many people saying push?

This flop is no worse then 953 with 2 spades.. the fact that theres a pair on the board shouldnt make you want to push.. if you push the only person that SHOULD call you is someone that has you beat. I would suggest milking some idiot for chips.. if another spade comes down then you still have alot of outs. Id probably just toss a big beat out there, can't be scared that someone has a 5.. not with the raises preflop.. if you are lucky some donk will have A9 and push on you, or they may push with a draw.. which is a good thing.

Anyways... IMO open push with KK here is -EV.
if you open push here with KK are you going to open push on any flops that have draws?

Consider the low pair a good thing.. its very unlikely for someone to have a 5.. I'd be happy with a paird board here, no one can hit 2 pair on you

[konahead]

If you're up against a flush draw, they have 9 outs - and if they hit, you have 4 outs (2 kings and 2 5s)..... You're up against 2 opps, not one, and the pot is 1900, more than 1/2 your stack. Any spade or Ace ruins your day.

If you were against 1 opp, I would agree to slow-play it - good chance they don't have 2 spades, which is my main concern - but against two opps - why would you want to take the chance? I've learned not to get too greedy against more than one opp. Plus a lower pp or flush draw may come along for the ride anyway.

I'm not totally against betting 1500-2000 here (1/2 your stack), but if you get a call and they push on an ace or a spade on the turn, don't come whining to me..... And DAMN sure don't call it a bad beat....

[Bailey]

If a spade comes down you have x more spades as outs

[Rondavu]

I push every time in this spot with 2600 in the middle. I get called way too often by flush draws and pocket pairs making it +EV. I have no interest in a slowplay here when such a pile is smiling at me deliciously from the middle.

Those who don't think a wide range of losing hands call you here are mistaken. It's just not true. They will, and they do. Especially with 2600 in the middle, and a suspicious nose looking for any reason to believe you're trying to buy it. So many times I see 77 probably think "Oh well, if you have an overpair GG", and then proceed to pay you splendidly. That's coming from someone who plays on Pokerstars, home of some of the toughest SnG's on the internet.

[Lexicon Devil]

Assuming aggressive opponents:

1/2 pot, definitely. If they have a flush draw, they probably aren't going to flat-call anyways. They'll be pushing, assuming that you're likely to fold. I'm perfectly happy getting it in as a 60-40 favourite against the nut flush draw, and a 72-28 favourite against any non-nut flush draw.

The flush draw is a red herring anyway. In my experience, people assume their opponents to have flush draws far too often. A more likely hand for your opponents to be holding here is 66-88. By betting only half the pot here, 66-88 are probably trying to push you off here, or at least calling. Same for A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9/98/97.

In fact, just about the only way that you can mess things up against one of these hands is to push. Sure, you might stack them sometimes, but definitely not nearly as often as with a 1/2 pot bet.

[Bailey]

Ya.. what lexicon said... Thats what I was trying to say but I think you explained it alot better.. good post lexicon