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Can I get away here?

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  1. #1

    Default Can I get away here?

    Stage #306842938 Tourney ID 230654 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $15 - 2006-01-26 12:30:37 (ET)
    Table: 5455256 (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
    Seat 1 - JEMILL3 ($1520 in chips)
    Seat 2 - XGAMMA ($1727.50 in chips)
    Seat 3 - SLOVESK ($1550 in chips)
    Seat 4 - PAUL3221 ($1360 in chips)
    Seat 5 - FUZJAM ($1715 in chips)
    Seat 6 - MOZZART22 ($1467.50 in chips)
    Seat 7 - POOROLRICH2 ($1045 in chips)
    Seat 8 - FORTUNE500 ($1325 in chips)
    Seat 9 - RED_BEARD ($1790 in chips)
    XGAMMA - Posts small blind $15
    SLOVESK - Posts big blind $30
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to FORTUNE500 [Ks Kc]
    PAUL3221 - Raises $60 to $60
    FUZJAM - Calls $60
    MOZZART22 - Folds
    POOROLRICH2 - Folds
    FORTUNE500 - Raises $210 to $210
    RED_BEARD - Folds
    JEMILL3 - Folds
    XGAMMA - Folds
    SLOVESK - Calls $180
    PAUL3221 - Calls $150
    FUZJAM - Folds
    *** FLOP *** [8c 10d 7s]
    SLOVESK - Bets $90
    PAUL3221 - Folds
    FORTUNE500 - Raises $540 to $540
    SLOVESK - Raises $990 to $1080
    FORTUNE500 - ???

    Clearly, I've trapped myself. But the pot is laying me about 3:1. Just calling is gonna leave me with around 650 chips. The small bet - reraise smells like a trap to me. Probably a set.

    Can I drop this? My instintcts tell me i should here, but the price is right.

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  2. #2
    konahead's Avatar
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    I think it's AceTen too many times to fold here.

    I was in a hand yesterday with KK - it played out about the same, except it was against 2 opps and both pushed an AT8 flop. I figured at least one of them had an ace, so I folded.

    One had QT and one had pocket 6s. Boy I felt like a chump with 425 chips left....

    Of course, the same thing happened today against one opp - I called - and he did have the ace. - lol

    btw - by my count, if you fold to his raise, you'll have 575 chips left. Calling leaves you 35 chips.
  3. #3
    I was just estimating... good math.

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    http://operations.talkingapes.com
  4. #4
    You have already put more than half your stack in. Do you have any reads? Lacking any reads, this feels like a set, but could also be AT, JJ, QQ, or even someone unwilling to lay down AK. There's too much of a chance you are ahead, and too much money to walk away from. If you got outdrawn, "nh gg". Fire up the next one.
  5. #5
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    This is a set. Fold.
  6. #6
    I pushed over top, despite my better judgment.

    He had J9 for the flopped straight.

    He's now on my buddy list.

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  7. #7
    konahead's Avatar
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    yeah - i figured it was an estimate, but you had said "calling" would leave you 650 chips, where it was actually "folding" would leave you around that number.

    didn't mean to come off as a picky math nerd.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by konahead
    yeah - i figured it was an estimate, but you had said "calling" would leave you 650 chips, where it was actually "folding" would leave you around that number.

    didn't mean to come off as a picky math nerd.
    GEEK!!! (just kidding)

    I probably would have done the same thing as I have seen WAY too many instances where people make this move with AT, KT, JJ or even AK.

    I would have to think that a call here is +ev over the long haul.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.

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