KQ in LP; fairly deep

[JeffreyGB]

What do you bet when flopping two pair on this board against the big blind? And then [on the turn]?

#Game No : 3426041239
***** Hand History for Game 3426041239 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:19492429 Level:8 Blinds (150/300) - Monday, January 23, 23:10:53 EDT 2006
Table Multi-Table(575843) Table #35 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Good1Idea ( $9823 )
Seat 2: JGB146PP ( $4744 )
Seat 4: marlin1111 ( $3250 )
Seat 5: dinofox ( $2135 )
Seat 6: ugene222 ( $5958 )
Seat 7: quarter8 ( $3557 )
Seat 8: jsucaet ( $6286 )
Seat 9: egrohcir ( $3105 )
Seat 10: PaypalU2 ( $10335 )
Trny:19492429 Level:8
Blinds (150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JGB146PP [ Ks Qh ]
quarter8 folds.
jsucaet folds.
egrohcir folds.
PaypalU2 folds.
Good1Idea folds.
JGB146PP raises [900].
marlin1111 folds.
dinofox folds.
ugene222 calls [600].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 8h, Qs ]
ugene222 checks.
JGB146PP bets [900].
ugene222 calls [900].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
ugene222 checks.
Zander1995 has joined the table.
JGB146PP ???


JGB146PP bets [2000].
ugene222 raises [4000].
JGB146PP is all-In [944]
** Dealing River ** [ 9d ]
ugene222 shows [ Ts, Jh ] a straight, nine to king.
JGB146PP shows [ Ks, Qh ] two pairs, kings and queens.
ugene222 wins 1056 chips from side pot #1 with a straight, nine to king.
ugene222 wins 9638 chips from the main pot with a straight, nine to king.
Player JGB146PP finished in 377 place

[KoRnholio]

That's the way I would play it, you just got unlucky.

[Easy17]

2 pair sucks i lose more $ with 2p than any other hand i think. Just good enough to put chips in the pot but bad enough to lose to any decent hand

i would have prolly played it the same though, but even if you push him when hes still on a draw, hes got a pretty nice drawing hand there with a good amount of chips in the pot, im gonna say hes calling any bet - hard to get away from losing chips there.

[chardrian]

I bet at least 1200 on that flop, and push the turn.

[JeffreyGB]

I bet at least 1200 on that flop, and push the turn.

It didn't even cross my mind that he might have called my raise preflop with JT. Assuming he has any other two cards, I'm pretty safe on that flop (or I'm near drawing dead). Are you worried about the BB calling with JT on that flop? Is there any other reason to want to bet enough to take it down rather than to extract?

[Aces]

Honestly I was thinking JT or 88 before I read the results, but I'm not sure I would have played it any differently then you. Pretty loose PF and flop call.

[Sprayed]

Honestly I was thinking JT or 88 before I read the results, but I'm not sure I would have played it any differently then you. Pretty loose PF and flop call.

My thoughts exactly. If you were able to take note how he was playing up to this point you may have been able to put him on JT. If he was calling raises out of the blinds a lot you would have to think connector. Even without a read, what type of hand are people calling with instead of reraising from the blinds? One of my leaks is not seeing the possible str8 draw. I'm always pot betting flush draws but I fail to see the str8 draws at times.

[chardrian]

I bet at least 1200 on that flop, and push the turn.

It didn't even cross my mind that he might have called my raise preflop with JT. Assuming he has any other two cards, I'm pretty safe on that flop (or I'm near drawing dead). Are you worried about the BB calling with JT on that flop? Is there any other reason to want to bet enough to take it down rather than to extract?

I'm not worried about anything on this flop really - with my stack and the pot stack after the flop, all my money will find its way into this pot at some point no matter what. My standard bet is at least 2/3 the pot on the flop. I try and bet consistent so people never know the true strength of my hand, that's all.

And don't forget that TJ is considered to be the best drawing hand according to many, so calling from the BB there with it doesn't surprise me as much as it does you.

[chardrian]

Honestly I was thinking JT or 88 before I read the results, but I'm not sure I would have played it any differently then you. Pretty loose PF and flop call.

The preflop call is loose, the flop call isnt.

[JeffreyGB]

Honestly I was thinking JT or 88 before I read the results, but I'm not sure I would have played it any differently then you. Pretty loose PF and flop call.

The preflop call is loose, the flop call isnt.

At best he has 8 outs (unless he puts me on a complete bluff, which is possible, but a strange way to play connectors). Meaning he's less than 20% to complete on the next card, after which there's undoubtably more chips to call before seeing the river, while getting about 2:1 on his call. This is only a good call if you know you're seeing the turn and river for this price (i.e. I'm all-in at this point). Calling assuming you are getting two cards for the price of the flop IS making a loose call. And it is a leak for good players.

[chardrian]

Ok how about that flop call isn't AS loose as the preflop call? If you are going to call preflop with TJ, I think you sorta have to call your less than 1/2 pot bet on the flop for two reasons:

1) Even if you are getting only one more card, implied odds make it ok (not great with his stack but at least ok) to call here because if you do hit your 1 in 5 shot you have a very good shot at doubling up.

2) You also DO have a decent shot at seeing two cards with this call. The continuation bet is used, imo, well over half the time by guys with position when the flop is checked to them. But firing another bullet at the turn decreases significantly when a flop is called.

Again, lots of this is read dependent as well. If I think you are not one to be raising with less than TJ preflop, and that you will keep firing at this pot on the turn, I agree that both the preflop and flop calls were loose.

Oh, and one last thing. It is not at best he has 8 outs, it is at worst. It's a rainbow flop so no matter what if any A or any 9 hits he has the nuts. He might even have more than 8 outs if you are firing at will with 99 or lower or an A hi hand. Although this is doubtful (and not super relevant), he definitely has at least 8 outs, not at most 8 outs.

[JeffreyGB]

I agree with all of that...sorry if I came across as overly critical. I don't remember specifics, but can't imagine anyone ever assigning me an image of raising with less than JT...I guess positional it could make sense occasionally, but I know if I was playing against me, I'd want a much stronger hand than that.

[chardrian]

I like criticism. Makes me think. Makes my game better.

In the end, I think you just got screwed. No way to avoid the outcome. You wanted him to call that flop; and your chip stack was depleted enough that there was no way you could walk away by that turn.

[Turning Leaf]

weak bet on the flop cost you the hand. gotta make him pay for his draw. i see your reason for the bet to extract but was giving pot odds to call.

his check raising the mininum on the turn was the red flag.

In the end its hard to lay down top two pairs and you just got unlucky.

[JeffreyGB]

weak bet on the flop cost you the hand. gotta make him pay for his draw. i see your reason for the bet to extract but was giving pot odds to call.

his check raising the mininum on the turn was the red flag.

In the end its hard to lay down top two pairs and you just got unlucky.

All of this is common sense, save being worried about making someone pay to draw on that board in a raised pot preflop. Is there any specific reason that you lean toward that play instead of extraction in this situation as opposed to the general draw-exists-and-I-have-a-hand situation? To me, the raise and the likelihood that he had a hand hitting that board playing back at me make it more of a rep-weakness-to-extract than a kill-the-draw type of situation. I was hoping he'd come over the top of me on the flop...I think any K/Q hand would here - all of which are more likely holdings than hit JT IMO.

[zenbitz]

You didn't post results (except it white), but I don't need to read them to know he's got your nemesis... JT.

gg/wp.

Or is it.... should you bet more on the flop? JT *is* a pretty common hand... you gave the odds (barely).

Bad turn card for you. Will you lose less than the maximum if you check behind? Will you win less than the maximum vs. weak K? If you check and he pushes river do you call?

Yeah, I think w/p as any.

[konahead]

On the flop, the pot's half your stack. Any decent called bet makes the pot bigger than your stack. Don't dick around with it - that's a mighty dangerous flop - you definitely should not want to see a turn card.

Once the pot's half your stack, just push and take it down. Only thing you'd be worried about right now is KK, QQ, and 88 - if they have that - well, nh/gg. If not, you should get a fold - and a 50% bigger stack - with A LOT less risk and variance. See the turn - and this is what can happen.

I cannot stress this enough - once the pot is half your stack, unless you REALLY REALLY don't care what the turn card is (set or better), take it down now. On this flop, you certainly should have had some concerns - although I'd have been more concerned about an ace than a straight.....

[chardrian]

On the flop, the pot's half your stack. Any decent called bet makes the pot bigger than your stack. Don't dick around with it - that's a mighty dangerous flop - you definitely should not want to see a turn card.

Once the pot's half your stack, just push and take it down. Only thing you'd be worried about right now is KK, QQ, and 88 - if they have that - well, nh/gg. If not, you should get a fold - and a 50% bigger stack - with A LOT less risk and variance. See the turn - and this is what can happen.

I cannot stress this enough - once the pot is half your stack, unless you REALLY REALLY don't care what the turn card is (set or better), take it down now. On this flop, you certainly should have had some concerns - although I'd have been more concerned about an ace than a straight.....

Whoa daddy!! I'm gonna disagree with you on this one. The fact that the pot is half your stack makes the pot valuable, I agree. But you have top two pair - you're looking to get all your money in at some point, any point of this hand... and you're looking to get called as well. Taking it down on that flop would have gotten him up to about 6k. Doubling up takes him to close to 10k. That's a big difference, and you want to get as much of that 4k difference as possible. Relatively speaking, this flop is about as unscary as any flop can be. The only hand he is worried about is the one that beat him. There is absolutely, positively no reason he should be taking down a hand simply because the the pot is now half his stack. The game is way too situational to say that. And in this situation, he has at least a 2 in 3 shot to win. The fact that the 1 in 3 hit sucks, but that doesn't mean if faced with the exact same situation he should try and take it down next time.

[konahead]

Guess I am a little paranoid these days, given the suck-outs I've been hit with lately...

[Easy17]

yeah, ran into similar last night when i made my set of 8's on the flop in between A and something suited with 2 other in the hand.

Do i slow play for the kill, one of the two was betting the ace, or do i push the flop with the set to drive out the flush draw?

I slow played it, got both of them all in, and one had the flush. Looking back though, hmm you know im not so sure that even if i had pushed the flop (i had both covered) i think the big ace and the draw mightve both called.

[JeffreyGB]

Do i slow play for the kill, one of the two was betting the ace, or do i push the flop with the set to drive out the flush draw?

With multiple opponents and a flush draw present, that's a much more dangerous board. There are many suited cards that make sense for calling a raise preflop. Plus you'll probably get action from a non-flush hand with the A on board. I definitely play that fast.

[Gareth]

If I have two high connecting or 1-2 gap high cards and hit two pair on the flop then I play them fast and with that size of pot compared to my stack - i'm pushing.

AJ A10 J10 910 all possible holdings for the BB.

PP's will fold to your bet with two overcards on the flop.

[JeffreyGB]

AJ A10 J10 910 all possible holdings for the BB.

I WANT all of those hands to put chips in. The amount I charged DID present bad odds, even to the hand with the most outs there (JT).

He could also have AK AQ KJ KT QJ QT. Many of these hands are playing back at my "probe" bet. Some pps will too.

Either a lot of you are playing too scared of possible bad beats w/ any two cards, or you're missing a ton of value on your hands.

[chardrian]

^^^ Amen

[Gareth]

AK AQ KJ KT QJ QT

AJ A10 J10 910

If he plays back then great you should be in very good shape to win this hand.

but, he didn't play back so how many hands above do you put him on now ?

[konahead]

Sometimes, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.....

I'm sure I'm missing some chips sometimes, but if the deck is against you and you've been having bad luck lately, it's not a bad idea to take it down and minimize your variance.

After all, variance (assuming you play correctly all the time) is really a matter of bad luck, and when my luck is in a bad streak (and I believe in streaks of bad luck), I take less chances than I do when things are going normal.

Am I the only one that believes in streaks of bad luck? I don't see how you can't - And if so, shouldn't you do whatever you can reasonably do to minimize it?

And yes - I'll walk under ladders all day long - I'm not superstitious.

But if you're luck is running normal, then giving opp's bad odds and causing a mistake on their part, is the way to go - I agree.

[zenbitz]

Am I the only one that believes in streaks of bad luck? I don't see how you can't - And if so, shouldn't you do whatever you can reasonably do to minimize it?

True luck, as all randomness, naturally runs in streaks. HOWEVER, by definition, the previous event(s) have no influence on the next one. Other wise it wouldn't be random. Now... since we are talking about poker, there is the very real possibility that a bad streak is NOT random at all, but rather a leak, or a tilt or something.

So, by definition, you cannot do ANYTHING to minimize a streak of bad LUCK. However... you might be able to minimize a streak of bad POKER.

[Miffed22001]

push teh flop
look like a donk
hope for a call
hope he misses his draws

[Aces]

Am I the only one that believes in streaks of bad luck? I don't see how you can't - And if so, shouldn't you do whatever you can reasonably do to minimize it?

You should have the same amount of bad or good luck as the next guy. If you let recent luck dictate how you play a given hand, I think that's a leak. If you can't play your "normal" game because of a bad (luck) streak, it's time for a break. As Zen said, bad luck may also be bad play in disguise, another good reason to take time off rather than play overcautiously.

[konahead]

I probably didn't explain myself well, but what I discovered in asking this question on the sng forum was that I was playing my sngs a little too much like ring, always giving 3-1 odds to 4-1 draws, whereas I've gotten much better results by giving worse odds, say 2-1 (or worse) to opp's flush draws. So my downswing was partly bad luck, but to some extent I was just not betting enough to get flush draws to really think about it, thereby putting myself at risk too often. If you give just barely bad odds, and get calls most times, even though opp is making a mistake calling - if you do it enough, you will get drawn out on. And sometimes survival is worth more than the extra chips you may get by giving bad odds and getting a call...

Interesting discussion - the sng forum topic is below, and I think it's especially applicable to MTT:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=27509

best part of the discussion starts about half-way down, when the difference between ring and tourney play is discussed.