Do you fold a race if you think one of your outs is gone?

[bluey]

Sort of a general question but here is a history. Especially late in a tourney.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1455)
UTG+1 (t1962)
MP1 (t3410)
MP2 (t1300)
CO (t1335)
Button (t375)
SB (t1105)
BB (t2558)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises to t150, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t1710, 2 folds, Button calls t375 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero

I figure MP1 on QQ, and button as having either an A or a K in his hand.

[Andy Holt]

I figure MP1 on QQ, and button as having either an A or a K in his hand.

Well, I probably wouldn't take this risk with AKs this early anyway in a SNG, but it offers a triple-up which is nice. But that's beside the point.

These players don't necessarily have an ace. This could be a battle between pocket pairs or maybe one guy really likes his 5-8 offsuit. The important thing is that you're ahead of any ace that decides to push, so you're at an advantage over one if they indeed do have an ace, or ANY unpaired cards for that matter.

So since you're ahead and he needs to catch up, you have one of HIS outs, do you see what I'm saying?

[Fortune 500]

Hero Folds here.

Let's assume you're taking AK vs. QQ and AT+, 88+.... You're only about 35% to win. With the short stack in here at less than 400, you're not getting enough to gamble, if you truly think MP has QQ.

It gets even muddier if he has AA/KK.... which is a very real possibility.

Fold. Find a better spot.

[Rockymv]

You should fold this anyway.

[bluey]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1455)
UTG+1 (t1962)
MP1 (t3410)
MP2 (t1300)
CO (t1335)
Button (t375)
SB (t1105)
BB (t2558)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises to t150, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t1710, 2 folds, Button calls t375 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero folds.

Flop: (t2280) 8, Q, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2280) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2280) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2280

Results in white below:
MP1 has Jd Jh (two pair, jacks and nines).
Button has Qd Ks (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: MP1 wins t1335. Button wins t945.

[konahead]

good fold - blinds are 30 - pick a less disputed spot.