Stars $55+5 Turbo, to call or not to call

[lambchopdc]

Ok, I have ZERO reads on this guy. I was downloading music and got bored so I loaded up this SNG in the background. I know some of you are going to think i'm crazy for even debating this, but put yourself in my shoes, click the timebank, and read through this hand a few times, what do u do?


PokerStars Game #3729379908: Tournament #18519302, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/01/23 - 08:38:00 (ET)
Table '18519302 1' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: chillyah (1345 in chips)
Seat 3: FriedPhish (1385 in chips)
Seat 4: lambchopdc (2055 in chips)
Seat 5: carloe (1265 in chips)
Seat 6: fshemingway (1430 in chips)
Seat 7: Stottie (2935 in chips)
Seat 8: stulong1 (2030 in chips)
Seat 9: NDakRaceFan (1055 in chips)
carloe: posts small blind 50
fshemingway: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lambchopdc [9d Ad]
Stottie: folds
stulong1: folds
NDakRaceFan: folds
chillyah: folds
FriedPhish: folds
lambchopdc: raises 200 to 300
carloe: folds
fshemingway: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [7s Js Qd]
fshemingway: checks
lambchopdc: checks
*** TURN *** [7s Js Qd] [7h]
fshemingway: bets 100
lambchopdc: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [7s Js Qd 7h] [2s]
fshemingway: bets 1030 and is all-in
lambchopdc: ??????

[Rondavu]

Whether he's overbetting the nuts or bluffing is irrelevant. You need better than ace high to call it.

[AHiltz]

Whether he's overbetting the nuts or bluffing is irrelevant. You need better than ace high to call it.

[lambchopdc]

It appears u guys completely skipped analysis of the betting pattern, follow the betting, and tell me what he has that I should fold to.

[Sprayed]

It appears u guys completely skipped analysis of the betting pattern, follow the betting, and tell me what he has that I should fold to.

I don't think it matters. You must have called because you know something we don't. I can't call an AI with just A high on a flush board. I say I can't but I have done it and received terrible results.

[lambchopdc]

It appears u guys completely skipped analysis of the betting pattern, follow the betting, and tell me what he has that I should fold to.

I don't think it matters. You must have called because you know something we don't. I can't call an AI with just A high on a flush board. I say I can't but I have done it and received terrible results.

At the time of this decision I had no information other than the betting pattern, i wasn't watching the SNG nor did I have any notes on the player. Ok....let me ask it this way....think outside the box....if you were him....and u bet this exact way....what would u have?

BTW, this is sort of a "mind-opening" challenge. Just trying to stimulate some outside the box, non-standard poker thinking and discussion. I will tell you this.....if your opponent minbets and then pushes the river....and you fold without playing the hand back 3 or 4 times in your head, you are way too much of a pushover. At least try and and guess what he could have.

Edit: oh yeah....there is one piece of info i left out. I said I had ZERO reads...which in itself is a read. If i don't recognize a player on a $55+5 turbo on a weekday at 6 am, there is a 95% chance they are not a shark.

[biondino]

Your checking and calling may well mean you have the flush - indeed, he may hope you do and be holding Axs. If he hasn't made the flush, wouldn't he bet 1/2-2/3 the pot on the river and see if you re-raise? Or even a minbet, which you would rightly be suspicious of. Or a "look I'm bluffing" all-in?

Without reads, calling this just can't be right. NB I have never played at this level so YMMV.

[ake]

Im gonna go ahead and put him on 9 high, call lamb

[Miffed22001]

The consensus will say fold, as you have only ace high on that board. I cant say that play is -ev.
But, checking the flop then min betting the turn and pushing the river looks like a miss to me or teh nutz. i doubt its the nutz, no value bet so is more likely to be a missed draw or just a pure bluff . But then what is opp likely to call 200 from his bb with in defence? Im thinking KT or something similar.
In reality i dont think id call here without a read and paying no attention to the hand makes that impossible imo. But In another scenario there is enough here to suggest that Ace high may be good and that the opp is trying to steal this because he knows you cant call that bet, no matter what you have unless its the nuts (QQ,77 flush) Youve shown nothing to suggest you have that so its a calculated gambool by opp if hes bluffing.
So i dont think its as insta-fold as it looks i, but you would need a read to call here knowing ur good and thats something you dont have.
I think you're posible good 20-40% time here but even if you are good, that doesnt necessarily mean you can call, that would appear to be the while idea of opps bet.

[AHiltz]

Quiet frankly I could give a shit less about the betting pattern. I just don't see this as a good spot to piss my stack away.

[lambchopdc]

Quiet frankly I could give a shit less about the betting pattern. I just don't see this as a good spot to piss my stack away.

This statement scares me. So u're saying that whether or not u have the best hand is completely irrelevant? U have a situation here where your opponent is offering his entire stack to you. He either has A. The nutz. or B. Absolutely nothing. I don't mean to sound like a master of reads, cuz I have ALOT to learn, but these are the hypothetical situations that can come up. The fact that you are saying you wouldn't even bother considering the way this hand went down...does indeed...scare me.

[ProZachNation]

Even if he does have nothing, most of the time is nothing(low PP or mid pair on the baord) beats your absolutley nothing.

[lambchopdc]

Even if he does have nothing, most of the time is nothing(low PP or mid pair on the baord) beats your absolutley nothing.

You really think he bets that way with a low PP, a J, or Q. Explain why. Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

[konahead]

I've seen too many players push the nutz specifically to get a call from a player thinking he WOULDNT push the nutz --- fold it. You beat nothing but a stone-cold bluff.

Why didn't you raise his turn bet if you wanted to know where you stand?

[AHiltz]

There was a hand posted a few weeks ago were Rondavu held the nuts on the river. The pot was $4. He bet $3xx. So, since he overbet his opp HAD to consider a call since he could be bluffing?

There are times when I'm not willing to risk my stack on a hunch. If you had a better read then a weak one like a one time betting pattern then go for it. Otherwise I think folding is the logical way to go.

[Warpe]

I put him on a made flush, probably with AK. Min-bet on the turn is for information. I will often push with a made hand instead of value betting precisely because it's so often read as a bluff by "thinking" players and called. Regardless, calling this is like shooting yourself in the head.

[konahead]

I hate it when that happens. Gets blood everywhere, and it's so hard to clean up afterwards.....

[Rondavu]

Lambchop, I have to be honest. When I first looked at this hand, I thought "Wow, ace high could be ahead here". The key word is could. I'm even assuming you were ahead and you called to destack him. GG you then. What you're not seeing is overbets can mean a variety of things. I'll tell you right now, if I had a good hand that wasn't the flush, and I didn't put you on the flush, many times I will push in this spot to make a smart opponent THINK I am bluffing the flush to induce a bluff call, when in reality I just have a hand that beats them. With no read, I am folding everytime.

The logical pattern suggests you have a good chance to be ahead of a moderately intelligent opponent. I think really stupid players, and really smart players are ahead of you in this spot. If you've read any of my stuff, you know that I don't jump on the side of math and +EV automatically. This just isn't a spot to stake your tournament life on IMHO.

With that said, I respect you as a player and hope you made a sick read to destack him.

[Aces]

At the time of this decision I had no information other than the betting pattern, i wasn't watching the SNG nor did I have any notes on the player. Ok....let me ask it this way....think outside the box....if you were him....and u bet this exact way....what would u have?

I see your point but you're giving him too much credit. I think there's enough time he plays a semi-slowplayed, non TP pair, or wierd hand(if not the nuts/near nuts) that beats you that makes this almost an autofold. If he only had 300 chips left maybe, but calling half your stack on A-hi? Can't do it. I'd say there's a reasonably good chance he's bluffing, but not good enough to cripple your stack at this point and it could be a bluff that beats A hi.

To answer your question, I've seen a number of hands played like this that are better than A hi. Take a hand like 88

PF: call and bet a safe flop
FLOP: uh oh, two overs...I'll just check
TURN: he checked behind on flop, 7 probably didn't help him, my pair might be good....min bet.
RIVER: Might still have best hand + flush bluff...probably take it down with AI bet unless he hit the flush or has a 7.

[zenbitz]

Your min bet on the turn was pathetic, and set you up for a move. Setting up long ball bluffs to call down with A-high seems like a -EV strat, but if that was your move than I guess you are a genius and call.

I think he has a 7, and just decided to pay off the flush. Only a truly weak opponent plays a river flush this way... but maybe he's weak. Also, at a $55 you might have to consider a counterplay nut push.

In any case: You have crap. Picking off bluff at 1.8:1... meh.

Why didn't you prot the frop? You have chip leverage, and are the aggressor on a pretty scary board. What do you want, an engraved invitation to bet?

[konahead]

Actually, he didn't make a turn min-bet, he called a turn min-bet. Not sure which is worse....

[vqc]

It appears u guys completely skipped analysis of the betting pattern, follow the betting, and tell me what he has that I should fold to.

I don't think it matters. You must have called because you know something we don't. I can't call an AI with just A high on a flush board. I say I can't but I have done it and received terrible results.

Ok....let me ask it this way....think outside the box....if you were him....and u bet this exact way....what would u have?

The flush.
I like overbetting the river as a value bet becuase people call bullshit on me.
But thats just me.

[Rondavu]

The flush.
I like overbetting the river as a value bet becuase people call bullshit on me.
But thats just me.

I do it often as well. Those who don't recognize these opportunities and take advantage against somewhat looser opponents are missing out on one of the biggest values of all. It goes like this... Bluff all in flush/straight rep against Too Tight Tim (perhaps showing).... Push all in with made flush/straight against Sherriff Johnson.

[konahead]

I push the boat here if I think opp made the flush - but I cant see opp calling preflop with Q7, J7, or 72 unless he was just fed up with you stealing his big blind..... but its possible.

[TLR]

Villian called 3BB PFR from the BB , checked the flop, minbet the turn and pushed the river.
My initial guess was mid PP - 77-99, he called the preflop raise, got a flop with 2 overs, checked the flop. when you checked he assumed you missed the flop and minbets the turn to see where he stands, and when you called he decided that he his ahead and pushed the river.

I think you should have bet the flop and try to take it there

[michael1123]

Personally, I think you're all crazy. It takes some indepth thinking and aware playing, but I like the call. What you guys largely don't seem to be understanding is that Lambchop only needs to be right 33% of the time on this call to break even. If he's right 50% of the time, its a very plus EV call, and it will not only double him up but triple him up!

Very nice call, Lambchop.

[iwa]

I don't know, I've made call downs with ace high but I just don't like this situation at all. What exactly are you putting him on? I don't see why he bets out small like that and then pushes the river unless he has you beat. I know you can generalize people as fish and people who are not thinking; but there are people who are thinking about what hand you could have. So what do you think he thinks you have? A flush draw, a small pair, middle pair, does he even think you could be on ace-high? I see it more likely for him making this play when he has some kind of monster hand, then him actually being on a fullout bluff.

[dodgerfan29]

I push the boat here if I think opp made the flush - but I cant see opp calling preflop with Q7, J7, or 72 unless he was just fed up with you stealing his big blind..... but its possible.

...if he was fed up with lambchops stealing his blind wouldnt he push over him? calling is still a weak play and wont put a stop to a blind steal..not for me at least.

[michael1123]

If I'm the pusher on this hand, I'd put Lambchop on A high every single time. That's why the all in bet on the river so weak. Why would you go all in at the river if you put your opponent on A high? The obvious answer is because you can't beat it.

[MAX]

Opp. went ai to rep a big hand, in this case, he figured with both trips and a flush possible, chop would have to fold. This does not necessarily mean that opp doesn't have a small pocket pair or even paired paint, or even that he actually does in fact have a big hand, like a boat or AA, and thinks that anyone calling a bet will just as likely call his ai. Calling here seems like a play you would make in a cash game, short handed, with a read. I completely understand why you read opp. as being weak, and agree that it looks like a desperation push. But you may be correct that he is weak and yet still behind in the hand. That is why I don't think you will come out on top often enough to make this call overall profitable. Biggest thing that tilts it for me is no read. If opp. is tricky, he may have you beat. If opp. tripped and slowplayed on the flop, he's got a boat. If opp. is fishy w/pp, AK, second pair, etc. he may have you beat.

edit: If I'm thinking outside of the box I'll just go ahead and give opp. quads!

[konahead]

If opp had a short stack and I had plenty of chips, I may make this call - but I'm not putting my whole tournament on the line this early with no reads and ace high. There's a time and place for a call, but I don't think this is it.

And Michael - while I understand that you only have to be right 50% of the time, but at the levels most of us play at, you'll see opps pushing the nutz a lot of times. It's actually pretty obvious sometimes - like the post below:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=27499

[lambchopdc]

If opp had a short stack and I had plenty of chips, I may make this call - but I'm not putting my whole tournament on the line this early with no reads and ace high. There's a time and place for a call, but I don't think this is it.

And Michael - while I understand that you only have to be right 50% of the time, but at the levels most of us play at, you'll see opps pushing the nutz a lot of times. It's actually pretty obvious sometimes - like the post below:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=27499

Ok, these two hands are completely different. I think this is the main problem. I didn't just go "oh he went all in on the river....obvious bluff," I looked at the way the hand was played, preflop to showdown. In analyzing these situations, there is no cookie-cutter answer. From the sounds of replies on this thread, you guys are saying its never correct to call a river bet with A high. Now I would say this is appropriate advice in a $10 SNG, but this is a $55+5, decisions aren't always cut and dry.

Also, lets look at the possibilities of what my opponent could have:

Low PP (As suggested by many)....ok the flop action and turn action make sense, I'll give you that...but the river....WHY?? Think about what the opp. puts me on. If he puts me on Ace high, he would minbet again, or maybe 2x or 3x, hoping I think A high is good and I call. There would be zero point in trying to buy me out of the pot. If he puts me on anything better than A high, well he's beat and i'm obviously calling. X out this option cuz it makes zero sense on any level. This same logic goes for 2nd pair.

Flush - Once again....what does he put me on? Once again, the river allin really makes no sense. I understand the whole "rep the bluff" thing but there is no incentive for him to do this. Again, I think i made it completely obvious I had nothing, hell if i had a pair I would have bet already. I called a minbet on the turn, this is not the ideal situation to "rep the bluff" here. NOW....if i had been betting into him, pushing the flush on the river would make sense as the opp. may think i have a hand like TPTK and may call. But I checked behind, and called a minbet, absolutely no incentive for a flush to push here.

Boat - The only hand that would worry me. I considered this...for about 10 seconds of my timebank. BUT.....once again, think what he thinks I have. By going allin on the river....he is basically praying I have the flush. A value bet would make so much more sense here. I would call a value bet with AQ, AJ, or a flush. He would have to assume I only call the all-in with the flush. This would overall be a really dumb move by him and I think its highly unlikely.

Absolutely Nothing - Ok, I am almost 100% convinced of the fact that this opponent knew I had nothing, A high, K high etc. And he was completely right. SO.....if he thinks I have A high.....going allin with anything that beats A high would be stupid....check/call...minbet....anything. 99% of opponents won't call an all-in with just A high right??? Well his read and his move was dead on by the looks of this thread. Out of everyone that posted, he would have bought this pot from everyone but me and michael. Good play him. Do you see why? Its obvious opponent puts me on A high. The only hand he pushes here is a hand that can't beat A high.

Main point, you guys totally underestimate the value of pot odds in this situation. I keep hearing everyone mention "tourney life." I play 50-100 SNGs a day....i bust some in under 30 seconds (AA-KK, etc.). Losing my tourney life in one SNG doesn't hurt my feelings much. Making the +ev play every time is what actually matters. If I call his all-in and i'm RIGHT, i will have 3 TIMES more chips than if I fold. So if this exact same situation occurs 30 times, i only need to be right 11 of them for this call to be +EV. I would venture to say that in this EXACT situation, I would be right more like 50-80% of the time, the other times I pay off a boat. I'll take those pot odds.....all day every day.

[outphase]

I'll take those pot odds.....all day every day.

Pot odds... of future pots nh sir

[MAX]

Congratulations on making the right play. People have given valid reasons on why opp. might have a flush here. They speak from experience. The fact that you dismiss it so readily makes me think that you are actually acting with a read... that opp. at least was competent. That he was capable of recognizing weakness and trying to exploit it. Perhaps it is the diff. between the 55s and lower buy ins. I already have agreed with your reasoning and logic, the disconnect is that at the lower levels, this play occurs by opps. who are not thinking thier plays through intelligently- they actually have one of the weak hands that are ahead of you and are misplaying it. Through experience most lower level players have weened themselves off of making this type of call because this last scenario occurs somewhat frequenltly. Excellent post.

[konahead]

Every time I've made this type of call, I've been burned so I just don't make them anymore. I'm sure you have a better feel for the right time to call since you play at higher buy-ins than I do. wp - nh, sir.

[zarry]

I read most of this but not all since i just got out of jail recently from 2 am lasdt night so im kinda tired but the fact is that any decent player would not make this move with the nuts because he doesnt want the small pot that that is... If he has the nuts make a medium bet maybe a min bet try and get a raise then reraise, dont throw ur whole stack leaving ur chance to get nothing rather have the sure thing try and pick up an extra 200-600 chips then nothing :/ So chances are hes bluffing with a worse hand but even complete shit can beat u, AK, AT, lower pockets, j, 2, theres many hands that beat yuou and the money you invested isnt worth it so FOLD