My analysis, thoughts?

[nickthefool]

Pretty early, no specific reads. Probably should have raised more preflop but there had been 1 raise to 100 which got all folds and a few to 60 which got 1 or 2 callers and i wanted some action.

PokerStars Game #3787825133: Tournament #18783026, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2006/01/28 - 20:10:03 (ET)
Table '18783026 2' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: nickthefool (1380 in chips)
Seat 2: poorman38 (1350 in chips)
Seat 3: goldengrain (1420 in chips)
Seat 4: WardenS (1990 in chips)
Seat 5: therock2205 (1370 in chips)
Seat 6: PokerDreams (1690 in chips)
Seat 7: Bobby Moore (1360 in chips)
Seat 8: AZEFAN (1440 in chips)
Bobby Moore: posts small blind 10
AZEFAN: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nickthefool [Ad Ah]
nickthefool: raises 40 to 60
poorman38: folds
goldengrain: folds
WardenS: calls 60
therock2205: folds
PokerDreams: folds
Bobby Moore: calls 50
AZEFAN: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc 4c Tc]
Bobby Moore: checks
nickthefool: bets 140
WardenS: folds
Bobby Moore: raises 280 to 420

I am pretty sure opp bets out with top pair or set, and smooth calls with made flush, so i put him on AQ/KQ with 1 club most likely, unless he's called my preflop raise with crap, so i'm not sure what to do. If i push he rarely folds imo and i'm probably about 50% to win if you add in the small chance of a made flush.

Does anyone agree that in this situation it is possible to define his hand well enough to call his bet and then lay it down if an K/club comes on turn, only call small bets if an A comes, otherwise put him all in on turn.

[vqc]

why woudlnt ur opponent be more apt to smooth call with a club? why would he raise with a club?

woudlnt an opponent be more apt to flat call with a club hoping to catch on the turn?

would a set really bet here? (I would) Why woudnt a fish with a set check hoping to see a turn for free?

[Trikflow77]

i think he has a set or top 2 here....maybe top pair....but without a club draw your in a tough spot. what buy in is this...is it a turbo or a regular?

[nickthefool]

It's the stars "double shootout" trny - $13 buyin, and this table is winner take all in effect (winner goes through to next table). 15 mins blinds.

I had played 1 before and felt it played softer than the $10+1s.

[Trikflow77]

It's the stars "double shootout" trny - $13 buyin, and this table is winner take all in effect (winner goes through to next table). 15 mins blinds.

I had played 1 before and felt it played softer than the $10+1s.

winner take all....easy push after he reraised..........

[nickthefool]

I did push, and he called with KQ, with the Qc, catching his flush on the turn.

If i call his reraise, i can lay this down on the turn and still have just over 1000 chips left which is plenty to play with. I just think in this situation, that's what i should have done. But oh well.