Monday NCAA

[metaxy6]

After a wild NCAA weekend, we're ready to roll this week.

What's everybody seeing?
I'm trying to keep up the 'strong' plays on favorites (donkeys love points!), and so far liking:

SanDiego -2 (2u)
UT-Chat -7.5 (1 u)
and probably:
Butler - 2.5 (1u)

Also considering these dogs:
Samford +6
Youngstown St +6 (despite the strong trend in favor of Wright St.)

Waiting to see what happens on the Utah St. line.

[Grand_MasterB]

Hey Metaxy whats up.. .im feelin a big week with us.. i like some of your plays.. heres what im looking into so far

Samford +6 (love this game!)
SD moneyline
Wisc GB-2
Wisc Mil -2
Wright St -6
Loyola MD +9

looks like we are on a couple fo the same but opposite sides of wright state bet. I gotta look into these some more.. be back in a bit

[Grand_MasterB]

29-22
+10.5 units (going to be +15 by the end of the week!)

Ok here is what im on so far

SD-2 for 1.5 units
Wisc GB -1 for 2 units
Samford +6 for 2 units

waiting for a line on the loyola md game at my book but if i can get 9 i think im taking it for 1 unit

Samford is one of the best ATS teams in teh country going against a team that has struggled recently ATS. Also Samford already beat them this year by 11! Bank this one.
Might go bigger on this Wisc GB. They are at home where they have been hot covering in 4 out of their last 5. In comes a poor road team thats only covered 4 out of the last 12 games on the road. I really like this spot for them

[Hungryman316]

aight B - im def tailing you on the Wisconsin GB bet for 1.5 units - i may put even more on later. i'll post later on other decisions i make

[Frizzle02]

1) BET ID=39281662
Straight Wager 01/30/06 14:10 ET
2 UNITS Result: Pending
JacksonvilleSt
TennesseeSt 01/30/06 (20:30 ET)
JacksonvilleSt +7.5

2) BET ID=39281597
Straight Wager 01/30/06 14:08 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
IdahoU
FresnoSt 01/30/06 (22:00 ET)
IdahoU +16

3) BET ID=39281526
Straight Wager 01/30/06 14:05 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
Samford
MurraySt 01/30/06 (20:30 ET)
Samford +6

4) BET ID=39281500
Straight Wager 01/30/06 14:04 ET
1 UNIT Result: Pending
DetroitU
WisconsinGB 01/30/06 (20:00 ET)
WisconsinGB -1

[metaxy6]

You know your stuff in the Horizon B - so you may be getting me off the fence on some of those.

Just getting thoughts out on some picks if anyone feels like kicking these around some.
Wright St is 4-0 ATS v Youngstown St last 3 yrs. Nice. But YSt. is a good passing team, w/ 14 apg. Wright has good Forwards and plays tough d. But YSt. is not totally outmatched in the frontcourt, w/their 6-10 Center and depth at Forward. YSt. has the better backcourt and can shoot the 3. That's why I like them to keep this close and get the cover.

Like Butler for the superior backcourt they bring to UIC. Their Forwards are overmatched, but not hopelessly(they do have 2 top 500 Forwards). They'll give up more than a few rebounds here, but not necessarily lots of points. UIC is pretty poor defensively, and they just can't score enough to compensate. Butler can shoot and put up the 3, while UIC can't (worst in Div 1). UIC should let Butler shoot around their 46% avg. here, and that should get it done.

Just quick on Samford, since there's agreement - this is a nice team with heart. They're not too deep, though, and Murray St. is (6 plyers +8 ppg). Love Samford's center, but Murray's is good too. Samford relies so much on the 3 ball though!! In their win over Murray @ Samford on 12/21, they had 3/5 of their pts from 3 (36/60pts)!! No doubt Murray will prepare for this. They've got the experience necessary to adjust defensively.

[Grand_MasterB]

Yeah im staying away from teh Wright State game... i just dont see to much of an edge one way or the other.

What you said about the Samford bet is true, however i just dont see them loosing by 7+.. i dont think they will win by i think it will be around a 3-4 loss. Or atleast i hope so!

I think im just sticking with what i got right now for tonight...

[metaxy6]

Ya B - that YSt game is weird. I'm tempted w/ them getting 7 though - for same reason you like Samford - it just seems closer.
Does anybody know wtf is going on w/ Cotton? I'd like to ride on UW GB, but kinda want to know what he's doing -

Riding along w/ Friz on Jacks St. (aka sieve, aka swiss cheese) counting on them to score.

Manhattan's starting guard and leading scorer Anderson was suspended for academic reasons, and that makes Siena a nice pick tonight. But the line isn't open for me yet, and there's no way it could be at 3 when it does. Think I'll take it up to 5.5.

[Hungryman316]

my pics:
Wisconsin GB -1, 1.5 u
Samford +6, 1 u
Siena -1.5, 1 u

[metaxy6]

I have no clue what the deal is w/ that Siena line, but I'm not about to get off it.
Action:
Siena -1.5 2 u
San Diego -2 2 u
Butler -2.5 1.5u
UT Chat -6.5 1u
Jacksonville St +7.5 1u


Still looking...

[Hungryman316]

what the heck do yall see in the Jacksonville St. pick?

[metaxy6]

Added:
Loyola, Il. +3.5
YoungstownSt +6.5

Yst. for reasons above. Loyola because they played UWM tough in Mil. In that game, UWM shot 55.6% from 3, and Loyola had 15 turnovers. Can't see either of those happening again, esp w/ Loyola playing better.

Hungry - JSt is decent team ATS, 6-2 ats on the road and 7-4 in conf. Tenn St. is 2-4 ats home and 5-6 in conf. That tells me TennSt might be overrated, probably on account of their 6-11 center, who isn't producing too much. JSt has balanced scoring and good play (and good size, and depth = fouls to give) at the forwards - which looks like Tenn St's strength.
W/Tenn St's top guard Price out (12/28), the nod at guard goes to JSt. w/size adv. there, and depth. This showed up in their first meeting when TennSt. had 20 turnovers. I'm kind of counting on their experience and depth to keep this in control, and kind of hoping that the recent performance of the d is a sign that they've matured defensively.
-- Of course it's totally possible that the matchups don't matter, that depth and experience won't count for very much, and that JSt is still swiss cheese.
It's also totally possible that I'm just plain seeing it wrong.
Just wanted to try to put my finger on it.
I'll go out on a limb and say 75-70 Tenn St.

[Grand_MasterB]

Loylola MD came through nicely: +1 unit

wish i didnt lay off my wright st pick.. oh well. i just hope this isnt one of those night where everygame i dont bet covers bc Wisc. mil is looking good right now too

Wisc GB was cruising but they are starting to slip here in the second.. i know everyone is on this one so we need it!

[metaxy6]

Nice covers - and you called Wright St, B. And UWM. Nice reads in the Horizon man. I've got to just lay off when it's not clear.
Got the blowout from Butler
and the comeback to force OT cover from UT Chat. is keeping my action together at this point.

[metaxy6]

4-3 on the night, +1 u.
Feel ok about it, since UT Chat came all the way back to get that cover and make the difference for me on the night.

On the other hand, definitely could have saved the YoungstownSt and Loyola Il bets - just not enough of an edge to justify them.
Siena just got beat, shooting a piss poor 29.7%/14.3% from 3.

<<edit>>ha, i just read the box score and found out how lucky i was to get that cover aginst citadel. citadel was down by 3 - bad for me when they're getting 6.5 - and tied it up on a 3 w/6 seconds left to force ot - where the mocs proceeded to tear them up. nice.

[Grand_MasterB]

Had a good night last night... hit 3 of 4 that i made bets on and would have hit 5 of 6 if i bet all the games i orginally liked...oh well

Hit
SD for 1.5 units
Wisc GB for 2 units
Loyola MD for 1 unit

Lost
Samford for 2 units

up 2.5 units on the night

brings me to
32-23
+13 units year to date!


Met: Looks like i should have listened to you on that Samford play. Man did they get killed on the boards. And you should have listened to me on the Wright state play. We need to do a better job of convincing each other i guess! haha

lets keep the winning streak going on tuesday!